Kara Crawford at kara@traderplanet.comadmin@traderplanet.comTraderPlanet.com :: DavidMoenning's Commentarieshttp://www.traderplanet.com/TraderPlanet.com offers its popular content for commercial syndication via RSS. The feeds include backlinks for the full articles and automatically assign author attribution, which is required. To syndicate these RSS feeds on a commercial Web site, TraderPlanet.com, LLC requires the execution of standard linking agreement. Contact Kara Crawford at kara@traderplanet.com for further details.en-usWhere's The Volume?http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/134303-where_s_the_volumehttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/134303-where_s_the_volume<table cellpadding="10"><tbody><tr><td> <p><span ><strong>Daily State of the Markets </strong></span><br /><span ><strong>Thursday Morning - February 9, 2012 </strong></span></p> <p>Good Morning. One of the bear camp's big gripes about the current rally - other than the idea that it came out of nowhere and caught the nattering nabobs of negativism flat footed, of course - is that fact that volume has been lacking. As any chartist worth their salt will affirm, a market doesn't need volume to fall but a strong, sustainable rally should be accompanied by increasing volume. In short, rising prices being accompa...</p></td></tr></tbody></table><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/134303-where_s_the_volume'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/832/?a=1073><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/jobman.gif border=0 /></a></p> DavidMoenning, TraderPlanet.comDavidMoenning, TraderPlanet.comThu, 09 Feb 2012 13:58:29 +0000Is It Time to Buy and...?http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/134127-is_it_time_to_buy_andhttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/134127-is_it_time_to_buy_and<table cellpadding="10"><tbody><tr><td> <p><span ><strong>Daily State of the Markets </strong></span><br /><span ><strong>Wednesday Morning - February 8, 2012 </strong></span></p> <p>Good Morning. Although our models told us to hop back on the long side of the market six weeks ago, there are a great many investors out there - individuals and professionals alike - that have missed the current rally. For example, I personally know three investors who make their living in the market that have been either short or entirely in cash during the current joyride to the upside.</p> <p>In light of the fact that I live in a g...</p></td></tr></tbody></table><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/134127-is_it_time_to_buy_and'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/624/?a=1067><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/dinapoli.gif border=0 /></a></p> DavidMoenning, TraderPlanet.comDavidMoenning, TraderPlanet.comWed, 08 Feb 2012 13:46:52 +0000Was January Meaningful?http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133914-was_january_meaningfulhttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133914-was_january_meaningful<table cellpadding="10"><tbody><tr><td> <p><span ><strong>Daily State of the Markets </strong></span><br /><span ><strong>Tuesday Morning - February 7, 2012 </strong></span></p> <p>Good Morning. The stock market has put up weekly gains for five consecutive weeks now and has finished in the green in eight of the last ten. The DJIA closed Friday at its highest level since the market bottomed on March 9, 2009. The NASDAQ finished last week at its highest level in eleven years. And January was one of the best in years. But with the news shows still droning on about all the macro risks, investors may be wonderin...</p></td></tr></tbody></table><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133914-was_january_meaningful'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/832/?a=1073><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/jobman.gif border=0 /></a></p> DavidMoenning, TraderPlanet.comDavidMoenning, TraderPlanet.comTue, 07 Feb 2012 13:38:23 +0000Will Slow and Steady Win the Race?http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133191-will_slow_and_steady_win_the_racehttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133191-will_slow_and_steady_win_the_race<table cellpadding="10"><tbody><tr><td> <p><span ><strong>Daily State of the Markets </strong></span><br /><span ><strong>Thursday Morning - February 2, 2012 </strong></span></p> <p><b><span >Publishing Note:</span></b> I am traveling early Friday and Monday and will not publish a morning report. Daily State of the Markets reports will return on Tuesday.</p> <p>Good Morning. Up until just recently, the bulls' battle cry had been three simple words: "Better than expected!" In short, for the better part of the last month, the economic data for the good ol' USofA had been coming in above consensus expectations. To anyone paying attention...</p></td></tr></tbody></table><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133191-will_slow_and_steady_win_the_race'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/832/?a=1073><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/jobman.gif border=0 /></a></p> DavidMoenning, TraderPlanet.comDavidMoenning, TraderPlanet.comThu, 02 Feb 2012 13:55:39 +0000My Crystal Ball Ranthttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132983-my_crystal_ball_ranthttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132983-my_crystal_ball_rant<table cellpadding="10"><tbody><tr><td> <p><span ><strong>Daily State of the Markets </strong></span><br /><span ><strong>Wednesday Morning - February 1, 2012 </strong></span></p> <p>With stocks having effectively moved sideways for the past eight sessions, the question of the day is which way we go from here. The bulls will argue vehemently that the bears have had ample time and opportunity to get something started to the downside - and have simply failed to do so. Yet on the other sideline, our furry friends are quick to counter with the argument that yesterday's economic reports poke a big fat hole in th...</p></td></tr></tbody></table><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132983-my_crystal_ball_rant'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/815/?a=1071><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/murphy.gif border=0 /></a></p> DavidMoenning, TraderPlanet.comDavidMoenning, TraderPlanet.comWed, 01 Feb 2012 13:38:14 +0000What Price Confidence?http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132764-what_price_confidencehttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132764-what_price_confidence<table cellpadding="10"><tbody><tr><td> <p><span ><strong>Daily State of the Markets </strong></span><br /><span ><strong>Tuesday Morning - January 31, 2012 </strong></span></p> <p>I wrote last week that, in my humble opinion, the Fed's intention to keep rates at "exceptionally low levels" for a length of time that surprised just about everyone, was aimed primarily at helping to build confidence in the American economy. Bernanke appears to have learned that when consumers are confident, they buy more stuff. And when more stuff gets bought, companies tend to hire more people. And when companies hire more peo...</p></td></tr></tbody></table><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132764-what_price_confidence'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/744/?a=1072><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/firman.gif border=0 /></a></p> DavidMoenning, TraderPlanet.comDavidMoenning, TraderPlanet.comTue, 31 Jan 2012 13:49:08 +0000Is There a Hole In The Thesis?http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132566-is_there_a_hole_in_the_thesishttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132566-is_there_a_hole_in_the_thesis<table cellpadding="10"><tbody><tr><td> <p><span ><strong>Daily State of the Markets </strong></span><br /><span ><strong>Monday Morning - January 30, 2012 </strong></span></p> <p>Good Morning. Investors dressed in fur these days have likely been both surprised and dismayed by the S&amp;P 500's recent 6-week joyride to the upside. For those keeping score at home, the venerable stock market index has now finished higher in 7 of the last 9 weeks. Since the most recent uptrend began on December 20th, the S&amp;P 500 is up 9.2%. And since the crisis low of October 3rd, the market is up an impressive +19.75% as of Frida...</p></td></tr></tbody></table><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132566-is_there_a_hole_in_the_thesis'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/624/?a=1067><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/dinapoli.gif border=0 /></a></p> DavidMoenning, TraderPlanet.comDavidMoenning, TraderPlanet.comMon, 30 Jan 2012 13:51:13 +0000Let's Get Sentimentalhttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132247-let_s_get_sentimentalhttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132247-let_s_get_sentimental<table cellpadding="10"><tbody><tr><td> <p><span ><strong>Daily State of the Markets </strong></span><br /><span ><strong>Friday Morning - January 27, 2012 </strong></span></p> <p>Good Morning. Anyone who takes the study of the stock market seriously undoubtedly spends at least some of their time with sentiment indicators. For example, sentiment models and indicators account for 15% of our daily risk management work and 10% of our weekly work. So, while market sentiment is obviously not nearly as important as trend, momentum, breadth, or fundamental indicators, it is something to pay attention to - especial...</p></td></tr></tbody></table><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132247-let_s_get_sentimental'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/832/?a=1073><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/jobman.gif border=0 /></a></p> DavidMoenning, TraderPlanet.comDavidMoenning, TraderPlanet.comFri, 27 Jan 2012 13:52:56 +0000It's Really All About Confidencehttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132026-it_s_really_all_about_confidencehttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132026-it_s_really_all_about_confidence<table cellpadding="10"><tbody><tr><td> <p><span ><strong>Daily State of the Markets </strong></span><br /><span ><strong>Thursday Morning - January 26, 2012 </strong></span></p> <p>Good Morning. Anyone holding short-term interest-bearing investments over the past few years knows all too well that cash has been trash as far as trying to generate any kind of income or growth goes. With interest rates at historic lows, the incentive has been to borrow money as opposed to saving money in traditional vehicles such as savings accounts and certificates of deposit. However in all fairness, the Fed has felt that tr...</p></td></tr></tbody></table><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132026-it_s_really_all_about_confidence'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/624/?a=1067><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/dinapoli.gif border=0 /></a></p> DavidMoenning, TraderPlanet.comDavidMoenning, TraderPlanet.comThu, 26 Jan 2012 13:57:07 +0000Barrier To Entryhttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/131692-barrier_to_entryhttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/131692-barrier_to_entry<table cellpadding="10"><tbody><tr><td> <p><span ><strong>Daily State of the Markets </strong></span><br /><span ><strong>Wednesday Morning - January 25, 2012 </strong></span></p> <p>Good Morning. It is safe to say that investors of all shapes and sizes found 2011 to be a very frustrating year. It didn't matter whether you employed a buy-and-hope approach or an active trading strategy; the bottom line is it was a rough ride. And although the action in 2012 appears to be diametrically opposed to that seen during the last six months of 2011, there is a certain contingency of investors that remain frustrated a...</p></td></tr></tbody></table><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/131692-barrier_to_entry'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/815/?a=1071><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/murphy.gif border=0 /></a></p> DavidMoenning, TraderPlanet.comDavidMoenning, TraderPlanet.comWed, 25 Jan 2012 13:43:07 +0000A Costume Change?http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/131669-a_costume_changehttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/131669-a_costume_change<table cellpadding="10"><tbody><tr><td> <p><span ><strong>Daily State of the Markets </strong></span><br /><span ><strong>Tuesday Morning - January 24, 2012 </strong></span></p> <p>Good Morning. Although the stock market is overbought and due for a pullback, my current working thesis involves the idea that the market made a costume change on December 20th. Suddenly and without warning, the uber-violent environment in which intraday moves of 3% were common stopped. And then starting on December 21st, something that investors hadn't seen in nine months returned to the corner of Broad and Wall - some sanity. T...</p></td></tr></tbody></table><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/131669-a_costume_change'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/815/?a=1071><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/murphy.gif border=0 /></a></p> DavidMoenning, TraderPlanet.comDavidMoenning, TraderPlanet.comTue, 24 Jan 2012 13:43:52 +0000A Different Kind of Decouplinghttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/131022-a_different_kind_of_decouplinghttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/131022-a_different_kind_of_decoupling<table cellpadding="10"><tbody><tr><td> <p><span ><strong>Daily State of the Markets </strong></span><br /><span ><strong>Tuesday Morning - January 17, 2012 </strong></span></p> <p><b><span >Publishing Note:</span></b> I am traveling the rest of the week and will publish Daily State reports as time permits.</p> <p>Good Morning. There seems to be some confusion about the idea of the U.S. "decoupling" from the European debt crisis. The bears argue that there is simply no way in this globally connected world, for the U.S. economy to effectively decouple from the rest of the world should a global recession rear its ugly head again. But on...</p></td></tr></tbody></table><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/131022-a_different_kind_of_decoupling'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/624/?a=1067><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/dinapoli.gif border=0 /></a></p> DavidMoenning, TraderPlanet.comDavidMoenning, TraderPlanet.comTue, 17 Jan 2012 13:50:25 +0000Is The Game Finally Changing?http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/130497-is_the_game_finally_changinghttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/130497-is_the_game_finally_changing<table cellpadding="10"><tbody><tr><td> <p><span ><strong>Daily State of the Markets </strong></span><br /><span ><strong>Friday Morning - January 13, 2012 </strong></span></p> <p>Good Morning. With the exception of the very first trading day of the year, each and every session in 2012 has continued to take on an eerily similar pattern. As I mentioned on Tuesday, it appears that the new trend is for traders to simply go opposite the direction indicated at the opening bell, regardless of what the futures market had been doing prior. Next, the bears make some menacing moves for about an hour and stocks react ...</p></td></tr></tbody></table><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/130497-is_the_game_finally_changing'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/744/?a=1072><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/firman.gif border=0 /></a></p> DavidMoenning, TraderPlanet.comDavidMoenning, TraderPlanet.comFri, 13 Jan 2012 13:50:06 +0000What Do The Cycles Say?http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/130231-what_do_the_cycles_sayhttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/130231-what_do_the_cycles_say<table cellpadding="10"><tbody><tr><td> <p><span ><strong>Daily State of the Markets </strong></span><br /><span ><strong>Thursday Morning - January 12, 2012 </strong></span></p> <p>Good Morning. Anyone who has read this column for any length of time knows that I don't believe in making predictions about the stock market. No, I believe it is critical to check your ego at the door each morning and to spend your time paying attention to what "is" happening in the market as opposed to what you think ought to be happening. You see, I learned a long time ago that Ms. Market doesn't give a hoot about what I think...</p></td></tr></tbody></table><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/130231-what_do_the_cycles_say'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/815/?a=1071><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/murphy.gif border=0 /></a></p> DavidMoenning, TraderPlanet.comDavidMoenning, TraderPlanet.comThu, 12 Jan 2012 13:53:31 +0000The New Trend in Trendshttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/130013-the_new_trend_in_trendshttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/130013-the_new_trend_in_trends<table cellpadding="10"><tbody><tr><td> <p><span ><strong>Daily State of the Markets </strong></span><br /><span ><strong>Wednesday Morning - January 11, 2012 </strong></span></p> <p>Good Morning. Yesterday's market headlines from the biggest of the big news websites read: "Stocks Finish at Five Month Highs," "Stocks Notch Another Win," and "Banks Lead Rally." All of which would seem to indicate that the bulls are on a roll right now. And while I think our Market Wrap headline, "Bulls Breakout But Momentum Lacking" may have been a bit more accurate, a picture of the Wall Street bull did indeed adorn the art...</p></td></tr></tbody></table><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/130013-the_new_trend_in_trends'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/624/?a=1067><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/dinapoli.gif border=0 /></a></p> DavidMoenning, TraderPlanet.comDavidMoenning, TraderPlanet.comWed, 11 Jan 2012 13:43:45 +0000