TraderPlanet.com :: ETFProphet's Commentaries

02.09.12 – Large/Small Cap Disparity

Jeff Pietsch — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 18:30:28 +0000

I can't quite explain the Large/Small cap disparity here in my usual US Dollar terms... Perhaps there is a spread trade there. Also note that Up and Down volume remain evenly matched in spite of the S&P 500 advance.

Read More at TraderPlanet.com »

Slow Grind Higher

Jeff Pietsch — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 02:37:53 +0000

Once again, the market recovered off a morning low. As soon as we dropped below Tuesday's low, the buyers jumped in buying Apple and other big-cap momentum names. Breadth was solid by the finish. With two days before option expiration week, will we finally get some weakness as the after hour earnings seemed a bit lack luster?

Read More at TraderPlanet.com »

02.08.12 – Volatility Enters the AM Session

Jeff Pietsch — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 17:35:17 +0000

The VIX is elevated relative to the open, but appears to be stabilizing at the mid-day.

Read More at TraderPlanet.com »

Relentless Bulls

Jeff Pietsch — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 04:15:10 +0000

Buying the early dips continue to work and we ended up closing near the highs. An extended market can become even more extended. After all the going no where in the past 10 years, is it finally the bull's turn?

Read More at TraderPlanet.com »

02.07.12 – Internals Running Sideways

Jeff Pietsch — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 18:06:44 +0000

With the Small-caps finding support at their VWAP, perhaps the SPY can break out above its R1. Meanwhile, internals are running sideways and volume is suggestive of an overall range day.

Read More at TraderPlanet.com »

Mosaic Blue – Week 6

Jeff Pietsch — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 15:41:40 +0000

This is a new direction for the Mosaic Project that takes market neutral engineering and skews the portfolio components and position sizing to create an upward sloping equity curve. This positive bias gives the model an increased edge to outperform the SPY and further limits downside risk. Mosaic Blue requires considerably less option strategizing, trading and commissions than the base model. Before proceeding further here's a recap of key Mosaic features: These are not rotation models. Thes...

Read More at TraderPlanet.com »

Teflon Market

Jeff Pietsch — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 02:28:05 +0000

Once again, the dip-buyers show their resilience. Just about everyone recognizes that this market could use a rest, but buying the morning lows continue to work. There isn't much choice but to play along. 1350 to 1370 on the S&P500 are the next targets.

Read More at TraderPlanet.com »

02.06.12 – Gap Fill Underway

Jeff Pietsch — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 18:21:08 +0000

Price is moving towards filling the opening gap lower, but really internals aren't suggesting much. This sideways action is definitely needed to 'burn-off' last week's overbought readings.

Read More at TraderPlanet.com »

Weekly 360° View ~ 06 / 2012

Jeff Pietsch — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 08:05:29 +0000

The performance report has been re-done in order to provide you with better readability and higher consistency among the various setups. Furthermore the trade statistics will have one additional piece of information: Sharpe ratio of trades. Usually Sharpe Ratio is calculated based on an equity curve .

As we are not looking at a complete trading systems, i decided to take the Sharpe Ratio of trades. That piece of information should indicate the consistency of a given setups and resulting trad...

Read More at TraderPlanet.com »

ETF Rewind – Bond Smackdown | Week 5 | 02.03.12

Jeff Pietsch — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 20:09:54 +0000

The bond complex took it on the chin as equities screamed higher into broad short-term overbought territory. Inspired by the Jobs report, the S&P 500 finished a full +2.1% higher, while Twenty-Year U.S. Treasuries were conversely taken down by roughly -1.0%. The small-cap focused Russell 2000 performed even better, putting in a +4.1% gain. While conditions have been becoming progressively more bullish for equities, these types of near-term disparities often result in an inter-market reversion...

Read More at TraderPlanet.com »

Jobs Boost

Jeff Pietsch — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 16:46:15 +0000

After 8 straight nonfarm payroll down days, it was probably a crowded short this morning on a very good number. The bears were over anticipating some sort of correction and helped with today's breakout to the upside. There are barely any dips at all and performance anxiety are probably setting in on the fund managers that missed the Jan 1^st run up. That said we are pushing overbought levels that is well over due for a 1-2% dip. This action feels very similar to the QE2 run up where we grind ...

Read More at TraderPlanet.com »

02.03.12 – Gap and Run

Jeff Pietsch — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 17:36:53 +0000

Read More at TraderPlanet.com »

A Good Trend or a Bull Wedge?

Jeff Pietsch — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 16:14:08 +0000

Here's another macro look at our market, using the VIX. It tends to follow the same patterns as other markets so the falling wedge I've outlined below may indicate a bullish direction for this index. Using a mid-point measurement and projecting it to near our current location, especially after today's low of 16.10, if this scenario were to play out, we could see a pop toward 32.00. This would not be in one fell swoop, however, a likely peak should this occur. Of course there's still plenty of...

Read More at TraderPlanet.com »

Bull Bear Review

Jeff Pietsch — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 05:36:40 +0000

The market's been on a good tear these past few weeks, and I find it instructive and insightful to see where we've been. So, below you'll find the Weekly Bull-Bear chart. It appears the first of the year was our cross into a Bull phase. Although, some market watchers are expecting a dip from this lofty top, watch it closely. Prior Bull Bear Chart.

Bull Bear Market Swings

We've moved to a bullish tone in the first week of 2012

Read More at TraderPlanet.com »

Waiting for a Resolution

Jeff Pietsch — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 01:54:36 +0000

While the indices had a mixed day, stubborn support prevailed again and prevented any real drop. The Russell 2000 continued to probe new high while the S&P500 looked a little tired. We have the monthly jobs news in the morning, and that will be a major market catalyst. On a good number, 1350 on the S&P will be the next target. On a bad number we are so overdue for a bigger down day in the NASDAQ, we could trigger some profit taking as the new month seasonality comes to a close.

Read More at TraderPlanet.com »