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JimWyckoff's Commentaries

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Market Place a Bit Calmer Monday Morning

* Latest Market Developments * OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS The market place is calmer to start the new trading week, after a weekend that saw no significant events to further stoke trader and investor worries. U.S. stock indexes have weakened a bit following very disappointing earnings from IBM that were just released. U.S. Treasury prices are modestly lower, to suggest just a bit more risk...

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Crude Oil Bears in Full Command

ENERGIES: November Nymex crude oil closed up $0.87 at $82.64 today. Prices closed near mid-range on short covering after hitting another more-than-two-year low of $79.78 early on today. The bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a close above solid chart resistance at $86.00 a barrel....

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Less Risk Aversion Friday Morning...So Far

*OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS* The market place so far Friday morning is reflecting at least a temporary decrease in trader and investor anxiety. World stock markets are seeing relief rallies after strong selling pressure seen for much of this week. U.S. stock indexes by the close Thursday recovered from strong losses seen earlier in the day, due in part to comments from Federal Reserve Bank of...

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Thursday Could Be the Most Important Trading Day of 2014

* Latest Market Developments * OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS There continues to be major risk aversion in the world market place Thursday.  Stock markets are selling off further and the U.S. Treasury market has seen bond and note yields plunge amid safe-haven moves by investors. Key questions now are: when will the rout in the stock markets end, and will the present fear in the market place turn...

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U.S. Treasury Prices Soaring on Safe-Haven Demand

December U.S. T-Bonds closed up 1 8/32 at 143 30/32 today. Prices closed nearer the session low but soared to another contract high early on today. At one point today T-bond prices were over five full points higher. However, the low-range close today produced a bearish buying exhaustion tail, which does hint the bulls today ran out of gas on the upside. Still, U.S. Treasuries will garner...

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There is Growing Fear in the Market Place

* Latest Market Developments * OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS There continues to be risk aversion in the market place worldwide that’s evidenced by contract highs this week in U.S. Treasury bond and note futures prices. The recent surge in the U.S. dollar and rebound in gold are also indications of increased demand for safe-haven assets. While stock market traders and investors like to watch the VIX...

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Grain Market Bears in Firm Technical Control

GRAINS: December corn futures closed up 12 3/4 cents at $3.46 3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short covering and on harvest delays in the U.S. Corn Belt. Short covering and bargain hunting were also featured. While corn bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, the bulls are making some headway and regained some upside momentum today. But make no...

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More Weak Economic Data from European Union Tuesday

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS In overnight news, there were more dour economic reports coming out of the European Union and its leading economy, Germany. EU industrial output dropped by 1.8% in August, month-on-month, and fell by 1.9% year-on-year. Those figures were worse than market expectations. The German ZEW economic sentiment index fell to minus 3.6 in October, versus expectations of a...

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U.S. Holiday Monday May Give Stock Market Bulls a Respite

* Latest Market Developments * OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS The U.S. government and U.S. Treasury markets are closed for the Columbus Day holiday Monday. There are also no major U.S. economic reports due for release. That could make for a more subdued market place to start the trading week. The stock market bulls are certainly hoping for a respite Monday, following late last week’s beat-down....

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Keener Risk Aversion in Market Place Friday

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS It’s a “risk-off” day in the market place Friday morning. U.S. stock indexes are under pressure and have hit two-month lows, while other world stock markets are also selling off. U.S. Treasury bond and note futures prices are at contract highs on safe-haven demand. Late this week the focus of the market place has turned to the prospect of weakening world economies that...

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Crude Oil Bears in Full Command

ENERGIES: November Nymex crude oil closed down $2.06 at $85.24 today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a nearly two-year low. The bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. However, this market is well oversold and due for a corrective bounce soon. The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a close above solid chart...

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FOMC Minutes a Near-Term Game-Changer?

*OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS* Traders are still digesting the dovish Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes released Wednesday afternoon. The Fed expressed increasing concern about weakening world economies and some FOMC members questioned whether the appreciation of the U.S. dollar against the other major currencies might act as a drag on the U.S. economy. The U.S. dollar index...

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Gold Market Bulls Making a Move

METALS: December gold futures closed down $6.00 an ounce at $1,205.51 today. Prices closed near the session low on a corrective pullback from this week’s gains. The key “outside markets” were also bearish for gold today as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were lower. Gold bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old...

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Trader Focus is on Weak World Economic Growth

*OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS* European and Asian stock markets sold off Wednesday, following the lead of sharp losses in the U.S. stock indexes Tuesday. There are increasing concerns about anemic world economic growth. The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday lowered its 2015 world economic growth estimate from 4.0% to 3.8%. The IMF said the European Union would be the main drag on world...

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Grain Market Bulls Gain Some Momentum this Week

GRAINS: December corn futures closed up 8 3/4 cents at $3.41 1/4 today. Prices closed near the session high again today and hit a three-week high. More short covering was featured. A lower U.S. dollar index this week has also aided the corn market bulls. While corn bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, the bulls are making a move this week. A bullish weekly high close...

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