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JimWyckoff's Commentaries

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Grain Market Bears in Technical Control

GRAINS: December corn futures closed up 2 1/4 cents at $3.69 3/4 Thursday. Prices closed near mid-range and saw tepid short covering in a bear market. The corn market bears are still in overall technical control. This market still could be “basing” at lower price levels that still could mark a low. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical...

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Fed Symposium in Wyoming at Center Stage Friday

*Latest Market Developments* News reports as of this writing said a large convoy of Russian aid trucks has just crossed the border into Ukraine Friday. The reports said Ukraine officials are calling the convoy an invasion. This has spooked the market place a bit as U.S. trading gets under way. Gold, U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar have rallied early Friday, while the U.S. stock indexes...

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Livestock Market Bears in Control

LIVESTOCK: October live cattle closed down $1.70 at 145.52 Wednesday. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a 2.5-month low today. Bears have the near-term technical advantage as today’s price action produced a downside “breakout” from a bear flag pattern on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid resistance at $150.00. The next downside...

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U.S. Federal Reserve in Focus Thursday

* Latest Market Development * The market place is still digesting Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC minutes report. The Fed officials’ wording that the U.S. labor situation continues to improve fell into the camp of monetary policy hawks, as it hinted the U.S. central bank could move to raise interest rates a bit sooner than many had expected. The FOMC minutes pressured U.S. Treasury and gold...

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Gold Bulls, Bears Fight for Technical Control

METALS: December gold futures closed down $1.90 an ounce at $1,297.30 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and were again pressured by better risk appetite in the market place and by a stronger U.S. dollar index. Gold bulls and bears are still on a level overall near-term technical playing field but the bulls are fading. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective...

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FOMC Minutes on Tap Wednesday P.M.

* Latest Market Developments * The Federal Reserve’s FOMC minutes’ release on Wednesday afternoon is the economic report highlight of the day. As usual, the report will be parsed and will be closely scrutinized for clues on future U.S. monetary policy direction. A main question among many market watchers is specifically when the Fed will implement its first interest rate rise in many years....

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U.S. Treasuries Bulls are in Technical Command

December U.S. T-Bonds closed down 29/32 at 138 22/32 today. Prices closed near the session low on profit taking. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 138 even. The next upside technical...

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Key U.S. Economic Data on Deck

* Latest Market Developments * There is increased risk appetite in the market place this week, evidenced by firmer stock markets worldwide, including U.S. stock indexes that on Monday hit or are moving in on record or multi-year highs. Still, there is a significant contingent of traders and investors seeking safe-haven assets given the geopolitical hotspots in the world. Such has driven U.S....

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Federal Reserve Events in Focus this Week

* Latest Market Developments * There is a bit less risk aversion in the market place Monday, as evidenced by generally firmer stock markets worldwide. Weekend news saw a meeting between Germany, Russia, Ukraine and France, regarding a implementing a cease-fire between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian troops. However, news reports said fighting at present is still ongoing. Still, U.S....

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Soft Commodity Markets a Mixed Bag at Present

SOFTS: October sugar closed down 11 points at 15.91 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a 6.5-month low today. Sugar bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as a seven-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at 16.75 cents. Bears' next...

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Geopolitics on Back Burner, For Now

* Latest Market Developments * On the geopolitical front, the market place perceives the Russia-Ukraine tensions might be easing just a bit following conciliatory words from Russian president Putin late this week. Also, reports said a Russian convoy of non-military goods has passed, or is ready to pass, into Ukraine. If the convoy is allowed to pass into Ukraine it would be considered a...

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Grain Market Bears in Technical Control

GRAINS: December corn futures closed up 1/4 cent at $3.69 1/4 Wednesday. Prices closed near mid-range in quieter trading. Prices hit a contract low Tuesday. The corn market bears are still in solid overall technical control. A steep three-month-old price downtrend remains in place on the daily bar chart. This market still could be “basing” at lower price levels that could mark a low. Corn...

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More Weak Economic Data from European Union Thursday

* Latest Market Developments * In overnight news, the European Union saw more downbeat economic reports, as the bloc’s gross domestic product showed a zero percent growth rate in the second quarter from the first, and was up 0.7% year-on-year. Particularly, GDP in Germany and France—the two largest EU members—was disappointing.  Meantime, the EU consumer price index fell 0.7% in July from...

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Livestock Market Bears in Control

LIVESTOCK: October live cattle closed down $2.70 at 147.75 Tuesday. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a seven-week low today. Worries about the beef market fundamentals weakening have hit the futures market hard recently, to suggest a major market top is in place. Serious near-term chart damage has also been inflicted recently. Bears now have the near-term technical advantage as a...

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China, EU Economic Data Miss Expectations Wednesday

* Latest Market Developments * While there are still geopolitical hotspots in the world that the market place is monitoring, traders this week appear to have a bit more risk appetite. However, trading volumes have been light in many markets, with many focused on late-summer vacations and other outdoor activities. However, any flare-up will likely jolt traders and investors back into a keener...

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