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JimWyckoff's Commentaries

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Surprise News Overnight Sends Stock Indexes Higher Friday

* Latest Market Developments * In an unexpected move overnight, China’s central bank reduced its interest rates in order to stimulate a decelerating China economy, which is the second-largest in the world. The past few months have seen China economic growth data that has generally disappointed the market place. The move by China is a bullish development for the raw commodity sector and also...

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U.S. Treasuries See Choppy Trading Recently

March U.S. T-Bonds closed up 11/32 at 140 4/32 today. Prices closed near mid-range. The bulls and bears are still on a level near-term technical playing field as trading remains choppy. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of 138 28/32. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to...

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More Downbeat Economic Data from China, EU Thursday

* Latest Market Developments * In overnight news, the HSBC China manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 50.0 in November, which is down from 50.4 in October. A PMI reading above 50.0 suggests growth in the sector. That’s just another underlying bearish factor for the beaten-down raw commodity sector. China is the world’s largest importer of raw commodities. Meantime, the...

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Crude Oil Still Bearish, But Nat Gas Bulls Make a Move

ENERGIES: January Nymex crude oil closed down $0.18 at $74.46 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. Not much new this week. Prices last week hit a contract and three-year low. The crude oil bears have the strong near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a close above solid chart resistance at $80.00 a barrel....

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Three Important Themes in Market Place

* Latest Market Developments * In overnight news, the Bank of Japan announced it would keep its very easy monetary policy steady, despite a grim Japanese GDP report issued earlier in the week. The BOJ governor said the latest monetary policy easing moves implemented last month were the right path to take. There was also more weak economic data coming out of the European Union Wednesday, as...

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Gold Market May Have Bottomed Out

METALS: February gold futures closed up $11.70 an ounce at $1,196.00 today. Prices closed near mid-range but did hit a three-week high early on. Short covering and bargain hunting were featured. The weaker U.S. dollar index today was also supportive for gold. Recent upside price action hints a near-term market bottom is in place. The gold bears still have the overall near-term technical...

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Upbeat News from Asia and Europe Tuesday

* Latest Market Developments * In overnight news, European stock markets and the Euro currency rallied due in part to an upbeat German ZEW economic expectations index for November that handily beat market expectations. The index was forecast to come in at 0.9 but posted a reading of 11.5. In October the ZEW index came in at -3.6. European equities also saw buying support after European...

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Natural Gas Pops Amid Cold Weather

ENERGIES: January Nymex crude oil closed down $0.31 at $75.51 today. Prices closed near mid-range. Prices Friday hit a contract and three-year low. The crude oil bears have the strong near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a close above solid chart resistance at $80.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price...

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Weak Japan Economic Data Sinks World Stock Markets Monday

* Latest Market Developments * (Follow me on Twitter: @jimwyckoff) In overnight news, Japan reported its gross domestic product declined by 1.6% in the third quarter, year-on-year, versus expectations of a 2.2% increase in growth. Thus, Japan is now in recession. This somewhat surprising news sunk Japan’s Nikkei stock index by 3% Monday, which in turn put downside pressure on most other...

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Stunning Drop in Crude Oil Has Traders' Attention

* Latest Market Developments * (Follow me on Twitter: @jimwyckoff) In overnight news, the European Union reported its third-quarter gross domestic product, which came in at up 0.2% on the quarter and up 0.8% year-on- year. While not great numbers, they did slightly beat market expectations. This takes just a bit of pressure off of the European Central Bank, which most believe is still set to...

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Soft Commodity Market Action Favors the Bears

SOFTS: March sugar closed down 35 points at 16.01 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The slumping crude oil market that hit a three-year low today was a bearish factor for sugar. Sugar bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, a bullish double-bottom reversal pattern may still be forming on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout...

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More Sour News for Gold, But...

* Latest Market Developments * (Follow me on Twitter: @jimwyckoff) In overnight news, the World Gold Council reported Thursday that worldwide demand for gold dropped by 2% from the same reporting period last year. Chinese demand for gold jewelry dropped sharply in the third quarter, but demand from India rose sharply in the period. I’m going to repeat some sage advice given by Warren Buffet:...

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Grain Market Bulls are Waking Up

GRAINS: December corn futures closed up 3 cents at $3.76 3/4 today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a four-month high today. Bulls gained fresh upside momentum today.A six-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls have gained the slight near-term technical advantage. The next downside price objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical...

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Recently Red-Hot U.S. Dollar Cooling Off a Bit This Week

* Latest Market Developments * (Follow me on Twitter: @jimwyckoff) In overnight news, the German government auctioned a two-year note (the Schatz) for a negative yield Wednesday, which fetched -0.05%. Investors are paying the German government to hold their cash. This is yet another sign of the very low confidence in the European economy’s health and its financial system. Meantime, the Bank...

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Live Cattle Bulls Again Proving Resilient

LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed up $0.05 at 167.17 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage as prices are not far below the recent contract high. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid resistance at the contract high of $170.00. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and...

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