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JimWyckoff's Commentaries

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Energy Bears Have the Technical Advantage

ENERGY MARKETS October crude oil posted an upside reversal on Monday as it rebounds off the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2011-rally crossing at 90.62. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at...

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FOMC Meeting Gets Under Way Tuesday

NOTE: I am out of the office all week this week. My friend and fellow market analyst Ken Seehusen will be producing my report today. Ken’s format and style is a bit different than mine, but I think you’ll enjoy and benefit from his work, too.—JimThe STOCK INDEXES The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as investors have moved into a risk-averse mood ahead of the Federal Open Market...

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U.S. Stock Indexes Starting Out the Week Mildly Lower

* Latest Market Developments * NOTE: I am out of the office all week this week. My friend and fellow market analyst Ken Seehusen will be producing my report today. Ken’s format and style is a bit different than mine, but I think you’ll enjoy and benefit from his work, too. —Jim Wyckoff The STOCK INDEXES The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight and posted its lowest level since August...

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Grain Market Bears in Firm Technical Control

GRAINS: December corn futures closed down 4 1/4 cents at $3.41 1/2 Thursday. Prices closed near mid-range and set another contract and four-year low. Today’s monthly USDA supply and demand report was indeed bearish. There are also some frost concerns for the northern U.S. Corn Belt later this week. Corn bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage and their next upside price objective...

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Market Place Presently Viewing Geopolitics as Static

* Latest Market Developments * In overnight news, there was a rare upbeat economic report from the European Union. The EU’s industrial production was reported up 1.0% in July from June and up 2.2% from a year ago. Forecasts called for a 0.6% rise in July from June. EU industrial output was up 0.2% in the second quarter, compared to up 0.1% in the first quarter. On the geopolitics front, the...

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U.S. Treasuries Bulls are Fading

December U.S. T-Bonds closed down 17/32 at 137 5/32 today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a four-week low. The bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 136 even. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to...

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More Sour News for Raw Commodity Sector Thursday

* Latest Market Developments * In overnight news, China’s consumer price index was reported up 2.0%, year-on-year, in August, versus up 2.3% in July. A rise of 2.2% was expected for August. That’s some good news for the beleaguered raw commodity sector, as it suggests China, the world’s largest raw commodity importer, won’t have to tighten its monetary policy to keep inflation in check. In...

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Metals Bears in Technical Control

METALS: December gold futures closed down $3.60 an ounce at $1,250.70 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a three-month low today. The sharply higher U.S. dollar index is bearish for gold. Gold bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as a two-month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout...

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Record-Low German Bond Yields Fetched Wednesday

* Latest Market Developments * The market place is calmer so far this week, due in part to no major world economic data having been released. Traders and investors are already looking ahead to next week’s U.S. FOMC monetary policy meeting. Things are also quieter on the geopolitical front this week. The Russia-Ukraine cease-fire is holding up. Reports Wednesday quoted the Ukrainian president...

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Energy Bears Have the Technical Advantage

ENERGY MARKETS October crude oil closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off June's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the...

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Focus on Currency Markets Early this Week

* Latest Market Developments * Focus is on the currency markets this week, where the U.S. dollar index has hit a 14-month high, while the Euro currency has slumped to a 14-month low. Diverging economies and monetary policies in the U.S. and the European Union are prompting their currencies to trend in opposite directions. Meantime, the British pound has sold off sharply this week and hit a...

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No Big Weekend Surprises for Market Place

* Latest Market Developments * In overnight news, China’s trade surplus hit a record high in August, at $49.8 billion, and well above market expectations. China exports were reported up 9.2% in August, year-on-year, which is slightly better than expectations. Imports were down 2.4%. Falling raw commodity prices were a major contributor to China’s trade surplus. China is the world’s largest...

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Soft Commodity Markets a Mixed Bag at Present

SOFTS: October sugar closed down 49 points at 15.13 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a contract low today. Prices also saw a bearish downside “breakout” from the choppy trading range at lower price levels, which suggests a fresh leg down in prices to come. The sugar bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A 10-week-old downtrend is in place on the...

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Traders Girding for U.S. Jobs Data Friday

* Latest Market Developments * Arguably the most important U.S. economic report of the month is released Friday: the Labor Department’s employment situation report. Forecasts call for the important non-farm payrolls growth to be up 220,000 in August. The overall unemployment rate is expected to have declined slightly in August. If the report meets expectations, it would be considered upbeat...

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Grain Market Bears in Firm Technical Control

GRAINS: December corn futures closed 11 cents at $3.52 1/2 Wednesday. Prices closed near the session low and hit a contract low today. Today’s price action negated what could have been “basing” to put in a market low, and instead could not be a bearish downside “breakout” that suggests a fresh leg down in prices in the near term. Bears are in strong overall technical control. Corn bulls'...

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