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JimWyckoff's Commentaries

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Markets Still Digesting Hawkish FOMC Statement

* Latest Market Developments * The market place is still digesting Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC statement that was deemed surprisingly hawkish on U.S. monetary policy. The Fed ended its monthly bond-buying program (quantitative easing), which was expected. However, the FOMC statement emphasized the improving U.S. economy, which led many to believe U.S. interest rates will be raised in 2015....

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U.S. Treasuries Bulls are Fading

December U.S. T-Bonds closed down 10/32 at 141 7/32 today. Prices closed nearer the session high after hitting a three-week low early on today. The bulls have faded but still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 140 even. The next upside technical objective for...

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Markets Pausing Ahead of FOMC Statement Wed. PM

* Latest Market Developments * Markets were generally quieter in overnight trading, as traders and investors await the results of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve. The meeting began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. As usual, the statement will be very closely scrutinized by the market place. Most believe the Fed...

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Softs Markets Bears Gain Technical Strength

SOFTS: March sugar closed up 10 points at 16.13 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high on tepid short covering. Sugar bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at 16.75 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices...

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FOMC Meeting Gets Under Way Tuesday

* Latest Market Developments * Traders and investors have more of a “risk-on” collective attitude Tuesday. U.S. stock indexes are higher, while the safe-haven U.S. Treasuries and gold are weaker. Focus of the market place is on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s regular meeting that begins on Tuesday and ends Wednesday afternoon. As usual, the Wednesday...

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Grain Market Bulls are Waking Up

GRAINS: December corn futures closed up 10 cents at $3.63 today. Prices closed near the session high and closed at a fresh two-month high close today. The corn bulls have made good progress recently to suggest a “harvest low” is in place. Today’s upside price action right in the middle of good harvesting weather was especially impressive from a bulls’ point of view. Prices are in a...

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Markets Focusing on Upcoming FOMC Meeting

* Latest Market Developments * OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS The much-anticipated stress test results on European Union financial institutions were released over the weekend. While there were some EU banks that failed the tests, overall the results were not deemed threatening to the EU financial system. There was another downbeat economic report coming out of the EU Monday, as Germany’s Ifo...

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A Bit More Risk-Aversion in Market Place Friday

* Latest Market Developments * OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS The market place may or may not be reacting to news of a possible new Ebola case in New York City. U.S. stock markets are a bit weaker in early electronic trading Friday morning, while U.S. Treasuries and gold are firmer—suggesting a bit more risk aversion in the market place heading into the weekend. However, it can be argued the U.S....

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Gold Bulls are Fading Again

METALS: December gold futures closed down $17.10 an ounce at $1,228.40 today. Prices closed nearer the session low on more profit taking and on a big rally in the U.S. stock market. A fledgling three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart was negated today as the bears gained some fresh downside momentum. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close...

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Risk Appetite in Market Place Increasing this Week

* Latest Market Developments * OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS The better risk appetite in the market place this week continues on Thursday. U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early electronic trading. No major flare-ups on the world geopolitical scene are helping to assuage investor anxiety this week, even though there was unsettling news coming out of Canada Wednesday with an apparent “lone-wolf”...

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Grain Market Bulls are Waking Up

GRAINS: December corn futures closed down 2 cents at $3.54 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today after hitting a seven-week high early on. The corn bulls have made good headway recently to suggest a “harvest low” is in place. Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. However, the corn bulls still have work to do to suggest the fledgling uptrend can be...

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Livestock Futures Bulls Hanging Tough

LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed down $1.20 at166.82 today. Prices poked to a new contract high but thenimmediately backed off to close solidly lower and near thesession low. Now, a bearish double-top reversal pattern maybe developing on the daily bar chart. Good follow-throughselling on Wednesday would better suggest such. Bulls stillhave the firm near-term technical advantage. Still,...

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U.S. Stock Index Bulls Regain Upside Momentum

*OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS* The feature in the market place this week has been the sharprebound in the U.S. stock market, following last week’s bigdownside debacle. Several pundits are now proclaiming marketbottoms are in place for the U.S. stock indexes. Mostlyupbeat U.S. corporate earnings reports are adding to a“risk-on” mentality among traders and investors this week.Short covering in the...

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Risk Appetite Slowly Returning to Market Place Tuesday

* Latest Market Developments * OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS There is a bit more risk appetite in the market place Tuesday morning. Apple’s corporate earnings late Monday handily beat the street’s forecast. Meantime, China on Tuesday reported its third-quarter gross domestic product grew by 7.3%, on an annual basis. That figure was slightly better than market expectations but was still the slowest...

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U.S. Treasuries Bulls Still in Technical Control

December U.S. T-Bonds closed up 8/32 at 143 5/32 today. Prices closed nearer the session high. U.S. Treasuries will garner more safe-haven demand if trader and investor anxiety increases. The bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 140 16/32. The next upside...

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