Recent KevinKlombies's Commentaries
Chart Presentation: Really?
We featured the chart below in yesterday's issue but we are going to run it again today as we attack the markets from a slightly different perspective. The inspiration for this particular ramble comes from our head-shaking reaction to the comments from a well-known major-dealer markets strategist...
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Tags: stocks | bonds
Chart Presentation: Stealth
From Bloomberg yesterday, "Japan used so-called stealth intervention in November as the government sought to stem yen gains that hammered earnings at makers of exports ranging from cars to electronics." Whether 'stealth intervention' makes sense or not the reality is that Japanese Finance Ministr...
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Tags: stocks | bonds | treasuries
Chart Presentation: Windmills and Gold
Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks declined, following a five-week rally for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, amid concern about Europe's debt crisis as Greek leaders wrestled with spending cuts to get aid and avert a default. The beat goes on. Positive news on U.S. employment putting upward press...
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Tags: stocks | bonds | futures
Chart Presentation: Thesis Review
We have been working with the thesis that the markets would recover in a sequence that would begin with an improvement in U.S. employment, work through into a flattening out of U.S. housing prices, carry through into a period of relative outperformance by the banking shares which would, in turn, ...
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Tags: stocks | bonds
Chart Presentation: Comparative Views
The 'decade theme' is based on the idea that the markets keep repeating similar trends from decade to decade. On the face of it this would mean that getting a handle on 'the trend' should get easier since we know what is coming but... the markets do an admirable job of making each and every time ...
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Tags: stocks | bonds
Chart Presentation: North of 1400
Both the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and the price of the U.S. 30-year T-Bonds were lower in trading yesterday. The equity markets rose in response.The Ragin' Cajun, Jim Carville, once said that, "I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a .400...
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Tags: stocks | bonds
Chart Presentation: Confirmation
We are going to make the case for the Canadian dollar declining from close to parity with the U.S. dollar to perhaps as low as .8800 over the next month or two on page 3 today. To start with, however, we are going to return to the topic of 'offsets'. At top right is a chart comparison from 1998 i...
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Tags: stocks | bonds
Chart Presentation: Push and Pull
For those in the northern regions of the northern hemisphere it is always nice to see the end of the month of January. While there will still be plenty of challenging weather conditions to deal with... at least the days are getting longer. Pushing and pulling. In a positive trend rising long-term...
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Tags: stocks | bonds
Chart Presentation: A Different Perspective
We are going to head off in a new direction today. We actually didn't intend to follow this line of thought when we started setting things out but sometimes these things just happen. The argument is that there is a certain similarity between the current time period and that of early 1999. In othe...
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Tags: stocks | bonds
Chart Presentation: The 2% Solution
In yesterday's issue we commented that we were bullish on the equity markets because... each and every significant low for equities since the Asian crisis in 1998 had been made with a concurrent low for yields. In other words... as long as long-term Treasury yields are not headed lower it makes s...
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Tags: stocks | bonds | treasuries
Chart Presentation: Thesis Review
We have been in this position before only to discover that the biggest challenge to be faced is boredom. Not boredom with the markets exactly but instead boredom with writing the same things and making the same arguments day after day after day. We tend to work well in front of the markets so we ...
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Tags: stocks | bonds
Chart Presentation: Two Perspectives
We often show rather dramatic comparisons and then, after a time, relegate them to the trash bin once the expected outcome fails to occur. For a change of pace today we thought that we would return to just such an argument. We are going to compare two charts today using two very different perspec...
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Tags: stocks | bonds
Chart Presentation: Bonds, Dollar, and Cyclical
One of our basic views is that the direction of the trend for yields serves to define the health of the cyclical theme. In other words when yields are rising money tends to move towards the economically sensitive sectors while when yields are declining money tends to migrate towards more defensiv...
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Tags: stocks | bonds
Chart Presentation: The Pocket
We have a rather strange assortment of views with respect to the markets. One of these has to do with when trend changes are likely to show up. For the purposes of today's issue we will call this point in time 'the pocket'. In general trends tend to run quarter to quarter. A broader trend can run...
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Tags: stocks | bonds
Chart Presentation: Perspective
We are going to take yet another run at the way the markets are reacting to changes in long-term Treasury prices and the U.S. dollar. The chart below is anchored by the sum of the U.S. 30-year T-Bond futures and the U.S. Dollar Index futures. The argument is that in uncertain times money tends to...
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Tags: stocks | bonds | dollar
