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Chart Presentation: Trend Shift
The combination of additional easing from the Bank of Japan and the Fed’s commitment to hold interest rates at current levels for an extended period of time helped lift global equity and commodity prices. Our view is that the Fed’s use the phrase ‘extended period’ is a bit of a misnomer. More...
Chart Presentation: Equities vs. Commodities
Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) — The California State Teachers’ Retirement System, the second-biggest U.S. public pension, is considering investments in commodities to boost returns and provide a hedge against inflation and slumping equities. Obviously the news snippet included above was from last month...
Chart Presentation: Hang Seng 19,500
There were a few developments within the markets that caught our attention over the past day. The equity markets were somewhat weaker in Asia, for example, while copper prices fell close to the lowest levels in two weeks. Wal Mart’s stock price finally climbed above 55 (WMT tends to trade flat...
Chart Presentation: Japan
One of the more interesting side issues this week will involve whatever decision or non-decision the Bank of Japan makes with regard to additional quantitative easing measures. As is almost always the case it isn’t the news that is important but rather the market’s reaction to the news. Those...
Chart Presentation: Loonie Tunes
March 11 (Bloomberg) — Canada’s dollar traded near the strongest level in five months against the greenback as crude oil and stocks gained before a report tomorrow forecast to show the nation’s economy added jobs in February. Our problem is that we believe that the Canadian dollar is going to...
Chart Presentation: Out of the Blue
March 10 (Bloomberg) — The worst of Greece’s financial crisis is over and other European nations won’t follow in its path, said former European Commission President Romano Prodi. It often feels as if markets crises appear right out of the blue. Typically, however, a problem builds until it hits...
Chart Presentation: The 12 Month Lead
The question today is whether the long end of the Treasury market is actually leading the short end- and hence the Fed- by close to a year. Below we compare the U.S. 30-year T-Bond futures and 3-month eurodollar futures with the charts shifted or offset by one year. The argument is that the peak...
Chart Presentation: Visual Representation
We are going to concentrate on a couple of similarities to the post-1990 markets on the first two pages today. Below is a comparison between the U.S. 30-year T-Bond futures and the ratio between crude oil and natural gas futures from July of 1990 through December of 1991.One of our arguments in...
Chart Presentation: The Relative Case
Our focus in recent days has been on the slope of the yield curve, the lagged impact on the share prices of the banks, and the potential for lower gold prices. We should note, however, that the major banks are just one of the cyclical sectors that stand to benefit. We are most certainly not...
Chart Presentation: Thesis Check
We might as well clear away a bit of smoke and get right to the point. The thesis that we are currently working on argues in favor of a very strong recovery in the financials and an equally significant decline in gold prices. It includes ongoing dollar strength, at least some amount of weakness...
Chart Presentation: Reconciliation
We are still trying to reconcile a number of views that, at least on the surface, appear to be somewhat contradictory. The ‘decade trend’, for example, suggests that we will see a peak for one or more asset classes later this year followed by a correction through into late 2012. When we view...
Chart Presentation: 1991
We are fond of comparing one time frame to another. While it is impossible (for obvious reasons) to argue that today is exactly like some previous point in time... we have to admit that we do find today’s comparison fairly compelling. The argument is that March of 2010 is, in some respects,...
Chart Presentation: Odds, Ends and Gold
March 1 (Bloomberg) — George Soros is helping drive up gold prices by doubling his bet in a market even he considers a “bubble” as Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Barclays Capital and HSBC Holdings Plc predict more gains before it bursts. If the euro and Swiss franc have found support then we can...
Chart Presentation: Cyclical Trend Check
Below is a chart of Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index. Our focus today is not on whether the Hang Seng Index will rise or fall but rather what it will mean in terms of the cyclical trend if it moves higher or lower from current levels. At present the Hang Seng Index is hovering just above its 200-day...
Chart Presentation: 1987 Comparison Update
Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) — Greece’s debt rating may be cut within a month as it struggles to pare the European Union’s largest budget deficit, driving up borrowing costs and renewing pressure on the euro. We are going to return to a chart-based argument that we have been featuring on occasion over...
