Kara Crawford at kara@traderplanet.comadmin@traderplanet.comhttp://www.traderplanet.com/TraderPlanet.com offers its popular content for commercial syndication via RSS. The feeds include backlinks for the full articles and automatically assign author attribution, which is required. To syndicate these RSS feeds on a commercial Web site, TraderPlanet.com, LLC requires the execution of standard linking agreement. Contact Kara Crawford at kara@traderplanet.com for further details.en-ushttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/134307-chart_presentation_reallyhttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/134307-chart_presentation_really<p >We featured the chart below in yesterday's issue but we are going to run it again today as we attack the markets from a slightly different perspective. The inspiration for this particular ramble comes from our head-shaking reaction to the comments from a well-known major-dealer markets strategist in yesterday's financial press. We will not mention names, firms, or include quotes but the idea was that the equity markets were going to remain in a trading range because... strong stock markets re...</p><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/134307-chart_presentation_really'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/832/?a=1073><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/jobman.gif border=0 /></a></p> Kevin KlombiesKevin KlombiesThu, 09 Feb 2012 14:20:16 +0000http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/134130-chart_presentation_stealthhttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/134130-chart_presentation_stealth<p >From Bloomberg yesterday, <em>"Japan used so-called stealth intervention in November as the government sought to stem yen gains that hammered earnings at makers of exports ranging from cars to electronics."</em></p> <p >Whether 'stealth intervention' makes sense or not the reality is that Japanese Finance Ministry data shows that over $13 billion worth of yen sales were conducted during the first four days of November. <br /><br />The argument is and has been that the yen is trading in the same direction as the long end ...</p><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/134130-chart_presentation_stealth'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/624/?a=1067><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/dinapoli.gif border=0 /></a></p> Kevin KlombiesKevin KlombiesWed, 08 Feb 2012 14:01:05 +0000http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133917-chart_presentation_windmills_and_goldhttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133917-chart_presentation_windmills_and_gold<p ><em>Feb. 6 -- U.S. stocks declined, following a five-week rally for the Standard &amp; Poor's 500 Index, amid concern about Europe's debt crisis as Greek leaders wrestled with spending cuts to get aid and avert a default.</em></p> <p >The beat goes on. Positive news on U.S. employment putting upward pressure on yields and supporting the cyclical trend only to be met almost immediately by offsetting negative news from the Eurozone. <br /><br />We thought we would come at the markets from a different direction today. At right ...</p><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133917-chart_presentation_windmills_and_gold'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/815/?a=1071><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/murphy.gif border=0 /></a></p> Kevin KlombiesKevin KlombiesTue, 07 Feb 2012 14:03:25 +0000http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133730-chart_presentation_thesis_reviewhttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133730-chart_presentation_thesis_review<p>We have been working with the thesis that the markets would recover in a sequence that would begin with an improvement in U.S. employment, work through into a flattening out of U.S. housing prices, carry through into a period of relative outperformance by the banking shares which would, in turn, put upward pressure on U.S. short-term interest rates. This would go with a better trend for the U.S. dollar which would put downward pressure on commodity prices and help to push the markets into a t...</p><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133730-chart_presentation_thesis_review'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/832/?a=1073><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/jobman.gif border=0 /></a></p> Kevin KlombiesKevin KlombiesMon, 06 Feb 2012 13:57:39 +0000http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133427-chart_presentation_comparative_viewshttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133427-chart_presentation_comparative_views<p >The 'decade theme' is based on the idea that the markets keep repeating similar trends from decade to decade. On the face of it this would mean that getting a handle on 'the trend' should get easier since we know what is coming but... the markets do an admirable job of making each and every time period feel wholly unique. <br /><br />When we delve into the 'decade trend' we tend to argue that there are broad similarities even though from decade to decade the cast of characters seems to change. One time a...</p><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133427-chart_presentation_comparative_views'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/815/?a=1071><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/murphy.gif border=0 /></a></p> Kevin KlombiesKevin KlombiesFri, 03 Feb 2012 13:47:48 +0000http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133192-chart_presentation_north_of_1400http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133192-chart_presentation_north_of_1400<p >Both the U.S. Dollar Index and the price of the U.S. 30-year T-Bonds were lower in trading yesterday. The equity markets rose in response.<br /><br />The Ragin' Cajun, Jim Carville, once said that, "I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody." <br /><br />The point, we suppose, is that it seldom makes sense to argue with the bond market. On the other hand when th...</p><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/133192-chart_presentation_north_of_1400'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/624/?a=1067><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/dinapoli.gif border=0 /></a></p> Kevin KlombiesKevin KlombiesThu, 02 Feb 2012 13:56:32 +0000http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132984-chart_presentation_confirmationhttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132984-chart_presentation_confirmation<p >We are going to make the case for the Canadian dollar declining from close to parity with the U.S. dollar to perhaps as low as .8800 over the next month or two on page 3 today. <br /><br />To start with, however, we are going to return to the topic of 'offsets'. At top right is a chart comparison from 1998 into 2002 between the Nasdaq Composite Index and the share price of Canada's Bank of Montreal . <br /><br />We should note that the relationship between the Nasdaq and Canadian banks shown on this chart is not rel...</p><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132984-chart_presentation_confirmation'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/815/?a=1071><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/murphy.gif border=0 /></a></p> Kevin KlombiesKevin KlombiesWed, 01 Feb 2012 13:44:45 +0000http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132765-chart_presentation_push_and_pullhttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132765-chart_presentation_push_and_pull<p >For those in the northern regions of the northern hemisphere it is always nice to see the end of the month of January. While there will still be plenty of challenging weather conditions to deal with... at least the days are getting longer. <br /><br />Pushing and pulling. <br /><br />In a positive trend rising long-term yields 'push' short-term yields higher. In a negative trend falling short-term yields 'pull' long-term yields lower. <br /><br />A 'push' market tends to be cyclically positive while a 'pull' market is cyclicall...</p><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132765-chart_presentation_push_and_pull'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/624/?a=1067><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/dinapoli.gif border=0 /></a></p> Kevin KlombiesKevin KlombiesTue, 31 Jan 2012 13:58:09 +0000http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132567-chart_presentation_a_different_perspectivehttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132567-chart_presentation_a_different_perspective<p >We are going to head off in a new direction today. We actually didn't intend to follow this line of thought when we started setting things out but sometimes these things just happen. <br /><br />The argument is that there is a certain similarity between the current time period and that of early 1999. In other words the post-Eurozone crisis bears a certain resemblance to the post-Asian/Russian/Brazilian situation that marked the end of 1998.<br /><br />First is a comparison between the S&amp;P 500 Index and the sum of 3-...</p><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132567-chart_presentation_a_different_perspective'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/744/?a=1072><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/firman.gif border=0 /></a></p> Kevin KlombiesKevin KlombiesMon, 30 Jan 2012 14:07:31 +0000http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132376-chart_presentation_the_2_solutionhttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132376-chart_presentation_the_2_solution<p >In yesterday's issue we commented that we were bullish on the equity markets because... each and every significant low for equities since the Asian crisis in 1998 had been made with a concurrent low for yields. In other words... as long as long-term Treasury yields are not headed lower it makes sense to hold to a bullish posture on stocks.<br /><br />The chart below compares 30-year Treasury yields with the S&amp;P 500 Index. The point, of course, is that when yields bottom... stocks tend to bottom as well w...</p><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132376-chart_presentation_the_2_solution'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/624/?a=1067><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/dinapoli.gif border=0 /></a></p> Kevin KlombiesKevin KlombiesFri, 27 Jan 2012 20:38:28 +0000http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132038-chart_presentation_thesis_reviewhttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132038-chart_presentation_thesis_review<p >We have been in this position before only to discover that the biggest challenge to be faced is boredom. Not boredom with the markets exactly but instead boredom with writing the same things and making the same arguments day after day after day. <br /><br />We tend to work well in front of the markets so we can create a set up for a trend change months in front of the actual event. By the time the markets finally line up our tendency is to move on to the next set up which ends up being more intellectuall...</p><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/132038-chart_presentation_thesis_review'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/815/?a=1071><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/murphy.gif border=0 /></a></p> Kevin KlombiesKevin KlombiesThu, 26 Jan 2012 14:19:37 +0000http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/131696-chart_presentation_two_perspectiveshttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/131696-chart_presentation_two_perspectives<p >We often show rather dramatic comparisons and then, after a time, relegate them to the trash bin once the expected outcome fails to occur. For a change of pace today we thought that we would return to just such an argument.</p> <p >We are going to compare two charts today using two very different perspectives. Both are based on the yield spread or difference between 30-year and 5-year U.S. Treasury yields as well as the share price of Japanese bank Mitsubishi UFJ .</p> <p >The comparison at right features th...</p><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/131696-chart_presentation_two_perspectives'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/834/?a=1070><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/wyckoff.gif border=0 /></a></p> Kevin KlombiesKevin KlombiesWed, 25 Jan 2012 14:32:42 +0000http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/131671-chart_presentation_bonds_dollar_and_cyclicalhttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/131671-chart_presentation_bonds_dollar_and_cyclical<p >One of our basic views is that the direction of the trend for yields serves to define the health of the cyclical theme. In other words when yields are rising money tends to move towards the economically sensitive sectors while when yields are declining money tends to migrate towards more defensive and stable sectors.</p> <p >The trend for the U.S. dollar helps to further define the cyclical theme. When the dollar is moving higher along with yields the focus of the markets' attention tends to be on th...</p><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/131671-chart_presentation_bonds_dollar_and_cyclical'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/624/?a=1067><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/dinapoli.gif border=0 /></a></p> Kevin KlombiesKevin KlombiesTue, 24 Jan 2012 14:05:29 +0000http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/131510-chart_presentation_the_pockethttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/131510-chart_presentation_the_pocket<p >We have a rather strange assortment of views with respect to the markets. One of these has to do with when trend changes are likely to show up. For the purposes of today's issue we will call this point in time 'the pocket'.</p> <p >In general trends tend to run quarter to quarter. A broader trend can run for several quarters or even for a number of years but we tend to believe that a trend in motion will often continue through an entire quarter.</p> <p >The twist is that the actual pivot often occurs a few w...</p><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/131510-chart_presentation_the_pocket'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/744/?a=1072><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/firman.gif border=0 /></a></p> Kevin KlombiesKevin KlombiesThu, 19 Jan 2012 14:25:13 +0000http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/131245-chart_presentation_perspectivehttp://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/131245-chart_presentation_perspective<p >We are going to take yet another run at the way the markets are reacting to changes in long-term Treasury prices and the U.S. dollar. <br /><br />The chart below is anchored by the sum of the U.S. 30-year T-Bond futures and the U.S. Dollar Index futures. <br /><br />The argument is that in uncertain times money tends to move away from risk and towards safety. In recent years 'safety' has included both the U.S. Treasury market and the U.S. dollar. There will come a time when money will move towards the dollar in sear...</p><a href='http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/131245-chart_presentation_perspective'>Read More at TraderPlanet.com &#187;</a><p align=center><a href=http://www.traderplanet.com/tradertube/index/834/?a=1070><img src=http://www.traderplanet.com/themes/trader_plain/gfx/wyckoff.gif border=0 /></a></p> Kevin KlombiesKevin KlombiesWed, 18 Jan 2012 13:46:38 +0000