TraderPlanet.com :: Mark's Commentaries

Nothing Much from the Fed Other than a Few Words Changed

Mark — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 19:37:00 +0000

Carry on...

Most importantly a few hawks exit stage right in 2012, and more Yellen and Bernanke types will enter. Also with the 'inflation is easing' commentary they take care of any issues with those who claim there should be a break from even easier money due to potential inflation pressures.

The Federal Reserve on Tuesday left monetary policy on hold but said financial market turbulence posed threats to economic growth, leaving the door open to further easing next year. The Fed characteriz...

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Bad Economy? Yeah Right - Not in the Farming Heartland

Mark — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 17:57:00 +0000

While I believe in the long term thesis in farming year over year gains of 40% in Nebraska and 31% in Iowa just are not sustainable. Easy money needs to find a home in something, and this time around farmland is one of them - long time readers will now the horde of investment money coming into this space via pension funds and the like. [Jun 14, 2008: Bloomberg: Farmland Reaps Bonanza for TIAA] [Jun 5, 2008: NYTimes: Food is Gold, So Billions Invested in Farming] Good times for the farmer set ...

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Marketwatch: Why Did 24 Hour Trading Never Take Off?

Mark — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 15:25:00 +0000

I remember when the first discussions of 24 hour trading gained force in the late 90s thinking to myself "oh no.... won't they ever let us sleep? This is ridiculous."*

*that said, a lot of us now wake up all sorts of crazy hours in the middle of the night to check to see what greek irish portuguese spanish italian bond debt is doing!

Frankly with the way markets now work, I think we could have a 90 minute trading session because most days are dominated by gap ups or downs, and the rest of th...

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Still Holding On

Mark — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 14:20:00 +0000

The 'Battle of the 200 Day's' looked to potentially be resolved mid afternoon yesterday but a stick save late in the session pushed the S&P 500 back over the 200 day exponential moving average. There was essentially a bounce off the 50 day moving average ...

sp500.png

Over at the DJIA things are actually looking more bullish and one could create a case for a 'bullish flag'. You can see how the 200 day simple moving average has been support multiple times, and a perfect bottom yesterday.

djia...

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Some Caution Now Technically on the Gold (GLD) Trade

Mark — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 17:33:00 +0000

Please note I am using the Gold ETF rather than the commodity as stockcharts.com has a 1 day delay on the actual underlying.

Gold is acting punk today - a lot of people are trying to find reasons why. I thought perhaps this would be due to Monti remarking Thursday morning that a bazooka of European QE is not coming anytime soon, but if so you would have seen more weakness the previous 2 sessions. Could be some liquidations, could be a lot of factors - I clearly don't know. But the one nice t...

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USA Today: As Bernanke Punishes American Savers, the Search for Yield Overseas Shows Pitfalls

Mark — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 16:15:00 +0000

This is an interesting piece by John Waggoner of USA Today, especially on a personal level, as I've been looking at a host of yield producing products to 'barbell' against an equity exposure. With the war on savers that Bernanke has waged - and will continue to wage for many years ahead [Mar 31, 2010: Bernanke Content to Sacrifice American Savers to Recapitalize Banks and Benefit Debtors] the choices all come fraught with risk, which many people have learned the hard way of late. While it's o...

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Risk Off for the Day it Appears

Mark — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 14:49:00 +0000

I did not really "get" the happiness Friday, as not much seemed to be resolved other than some language for more unity and to "hold people accountable" for excessive debt in the Eurozone. However, the current treaties are supposed to "hold people accountable" for excessive debt, and hasn't done a darn thing. I guess expectations were just so low, anything would have made the market happy for the day.

Well here we are Monday and Italian 10 year debt yields have again exploded upward, and we hav...Read More at TraderPlanet.com »

Zynga (ZNGA) Heads the List on Busiest IPO Week Since Nov 07

Mark — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 13:20:00 +0000

Looks like on sheer number of new issues, this is going to be the biggest IPO week since the pre crisis era. Hope it doesn't take away the shine away from the most important debut of the week....

Zynga is the star of the week [Sep 9, 2011: Zynga - Virtual Goods, Real Profits], but definitely should have came to market last spring when the hype was hottest . That said, I expect it to fare better once public than the Chicago based coupon magnet. We also get a new way to play the 'upper income co...Read More at TraderPlanet.com »

Update on the Battle of the 200 Days

Mark — Fri, 09 Dec 2011 16:34:00 +0000

Still in between the two of 'em. The Tom Demark Dec 21st top still has a chance as we've held the 200 day exponential late yesterday....

sp500.png

One assumes a horde of silicon and carbon based buy stop orders are waiting somewhere up there in the 1268-1270 range. Demark says S&P 1330+ by the 21st, if he nails this, it would be quiet fun to watch. Even though his system still sounds "Greek" to me.

FundMyMutualFund?d=yIl2AUoC8zA
FundMyMutualFund?d=63t7Ie-LG7Y
FundMyMutualFund?i=jBrB4ooCGHg:XZ1oF...

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DuPont (DD) Warns this Morning as "Decoupling" Theory of 2007-2008 Shall Prove Silly Once MOre

Mark — Fri, 09 Dec 2011 13:49:00 +0000

Those of you who have been around a while remember all the 'decoupling' talk of 2007-early 2008. That is , weakness in one part of the globe would not affect another, and please feel free to buy equities. While decoupling proved to be a complete failure over time, leave it to Wall Street to have a short memory as old ideas are recycled and sold as fashionable once more. That decoupling talk has begun to resurface as economic data in the U.S. - while "meh" in a general sense - has outperformed...

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There Was Just another Rumor Released Via a News Agency

Mark — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 20:51:00 +0000

I'm not even going to justify the rumor of the day - this has so jumped the shark. Let's just say it was denied quicker than the one yesterday -- after moving the market. It's actually disgusting these news agencies now will release just about anything a source gives them. Even if these sources are apparently sparrows sitting on a building ledge somewhere in Brussels.

intraday.png

This is truly reaching a pathetic proportion. Three of four days this week we've had one ....

FundMyMutualFund?d...

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Q3 Was Not a Good Quarter for American Wealth - Worst Since Dark Days of 2008

Mark — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 20:24:00 +0000

Remember the reason for QE2... that whole "wealth effect" thing? Well the problem with temporary manipulation of asset prices is just that... it's temporary. Blow $600B through the hole, and while it creates temporary "happy happy time" [Nov 10, 2010: Who Will Any Form of Intermediate Wealth Effect Really Help? Not the Masses], eventually market forces come back. As The Bernank would say ... it's transitory. And Q3 was another quarter of "giving back". That said with the one of the greatest m...

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The Battle of the 200 Days?

Mark — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 18:19:00 +0000

Interesting spot we are in - 200 day simple moving average to the top, 200 day exponential moving average to the bottom. Amazing how one-two sentences changed the whole complex of the day - the S&P 500 was trading in the 1273s pre market, above resistance, with yet another gap up open - before Draghi crushed the free and easy money crowd, and it's been downhill since.

[Click to enlarge]

sp500.png

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Over in the entertainment section of the day - Corzine says he is very ...Read More at TraderPlanet.com »

Ford (F) Halted, Reinstates Dividend

Mark — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 17:07:00 +0000

Thought when Ford was halted it might be news of CEO Mulally announcing retirement, which has been in the local papers as rumor. Instead Ford has reinstated their dividend after many lean years.

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Ford to pay a quarterly dividend of 5 cents per share
Business performance and balance sheet improvements allow Ford to resume regular payments
Dividend begins at level sustainable through economic cycles

The Board of Directors of Ford Motor Company today declared a quarterly ...

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Draghi Announced 4 Non Standard Measures at Presser, Speculators Given Pacifier and Now Sated - Updated: Now a Bit Less Sated

Mark — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 13:43:00 +0000

It's all good again and for the upteempth time in the past week and a half we are ready to gap up. This time of course over that very annoying S&P 1265 which has provided resistance the past 3 sessions.

Some of these things at the Draghi press conference, were talked about the past few days such as easing collateral requirements, but per the usual the market is acting 'surprised'. Reserve ratio was dropped from 2 to 1%.... 36 month loans etc.

Back on the home front initial jobless claims fell...

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