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TradeTech 2010, New York
Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD VP, Applied Technology & Research One year and several closed funds later, there was a noted difference embedded within many of the discussions at this year’s TradeTech 2010 event, held in New York. At the 2009 conference, Lehman had not yet failed, so where there...
World Sugar update – March 2, 2010
Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD VP, Applied Technology & Research Last week’s call for a stronger downside move materialized, and further verified the view that we have been pushing since late November of last year. May10 futures are currently below our recent downside target of 23 cents; as such,...
World Sugar update – Feb 19
Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD VP, Applied Technology & Research Now that raw sugar futures have scaled back to the mid 20-cent range (a move that we have been anticipating), we have an even stronger conviction about a constructive pattern going forward. There is still a downside target for May...
Cautious optimism for raw sugar futures
Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD VP, Applied Technology & Research Here is the discussion of the world sugar markets that was communicated earlier this week: World sugar futures continue to trade in the range that WTI has been discussing, as the market comes to grips with the fact that, while a...
EIA natgas storage report – Feb 18
as expected, stocks (slightly) higher than LY and 5 yr ave EIA Natural Gas Storage Data Release 18 Feb 2010 Total (02/12/10): 2025 Bcf Total (02/05/10): 2215 Bcf Change: -190 Bcf %diff to LY: +1.3% 5ya stocks: 1972 %diff to 5ya: +2.7%
Weather forces ABARE to lower wheat forecast
Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD VP, Applied Technology & Research The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) lowered their estimate for the the Australian wheat crop (2009/10 crop year) to 21.656 mmt; this is down from their previous number of 21.99 mmt. Mid-crop heat...
Sugar reflecting fundamentals once again
Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD VP, Applied Technology & Research Hopefully, readers of the WTI weekly sugar report were able to take advantage of our thoughts conveyed in last week’s discussion. The deficit in global stocks notwithstanding, we did think that the market was due for a mild
WTI World Sugar update
Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD VP, Applied Technology & Research Per monday’s note, spot sugar futures coming down:
US natgas stocks +9% vs LY; +6.6% vs. 5ya
EIA Natural Gas Storage Data Total (01/29/10): 2,406 Bcf Total (01/22/10): 2,521 Bcf Change: -115 Bcf Year ago stocks: 2,207 Bcf % diff to yr ago: 9.0 % 5-year avg stocks: 2,256 % dif to 5-yr avg: 6.6 % stats here www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/ngs/ngs.html
South American soybean rust transport
Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD VP, Applied Technology & Research Despite a healthy seasonal pattern, South American soybeans are becoming susceptible to rust outbreaks this season. The cool and wet El Nino-induced precipitation pattern set the stage for precursor conditions that are conducive for...
Raw sugar: a pause before new highs, or a market running out of steam
Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD VP, Applied Technology & Research Will this be the week where world sugar breaks, or will the impressive rally in raw sugar continue? While most in the ags space spend nearly all of their time and energy in analyzing the grains sector, the big story, and one that...
NatGas update
Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD VP, Applied Technology & Research Yesterday’s EIA natural gas storage report (period ending 22Jan) showed total US natgas stocks at 2521 Bcf, 5% higher than one year ago. Following a brief reprieve based on this news, which was not unexpected, we should see a bounce...
Severe Weather in Mongolia
Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD VP, Applied Technology & Research Adverse weather continues to plague Mongolia, raising fears of a serious threat to the country’s food and resource supply over the coming months. As we have seen by the recent disaster triggered by the earthquake in Haiti,...
Weather and Operations Research
Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD VP, Applied Technology & Research In a lit. review involving weather/climate and applied research, this is one of the earliest references that I came across, from the Journal of the Operations Research Society of America, published in 1953. If anyone has an...
