TraderPlanet.com :: aeroculus's Commentaries

Weather for StrataConf this week

aeroculus, TraderPlanet.com — Mon, 19 Sep 2011 13:40:36 +0000

http://strataconf.com/stratany2011

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Irene visible satellite image

aeroculus, TraderPlanet.com — Fri, 26 Aug 2011 13:22:20 +0000

from Naval Research Lab

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Monsoon update

aeroculus, TraderPlanet.com — Mon, 22 Aug 2011 03:39:12 +0000

Current satellite showing a lull over cane regions. Also, overnight sugar up almost 6%

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Rain light in India’s cane regions

aeroculus, TraderPlanet.com — Fri, 05 Aug 2011 04:21:57 +0000

Last week’s rainfall totals in India’s sugarcane regions has been light in both growing belts; see IMD map below.

Current water vapor satellite is showing less activity in more weak activity & this supports the JulAug dryness that the Weather Trends long range forecast had predicted for this period. With tight physical supply, this is constructive for #11 futures.

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FAO Food Price Index

aeroculus, TraderPlanet.com — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 13:34:24 +0000

The Food and Agricultural Organization’s Food Price Indices through June are shown below. Note the move in sugar since May; many of the reasons for this upward move have been discussed and anticipated in our weekly reports over the last few months. Most recently, a widely distributed estimate from Canaplan for the Brazilian Centre-South crop has put the current crop at 520 mmt. UNICA’s mid July estimate for the C-S region was 533+mmt.

October sugar trading at 31.06 this morning

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24 hour Forecast – Easton, PA

aeroculus, TraderPlanet.com — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 13:03:22 +0000

24 hour forecast from wt360

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US corn note – 18 July

aeroculus, TraderPlanet.com — Tue, 19 Jul 2011 14:28:15 +0000

Excerpt from the note that went out to Weather Trends clients yesterday morning:

In light of the softer market regarding futures prices, extreme heat across the corn belt this week should add some strength to the sector with widespread warmer temperatures and a drier pattern in the southern belt for several days potentially limiting yields. With season to date weather now figured into our models coupled with the forecast weather through harvest, the WTI outlook for US corn is for 2011 yield ...

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Typhoon Ma-on

aeroculus, TraderPlanet.com — Tue, 19 Jul 2011 12:49:49 +0000

Projected track of Typhoon Ma-on from the Japan Met Agency; current satellite below.

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Sugar exhibiting strength

aeroculus, TraderPlanet.com — Thu, 07 Jul 2011 15:56:59 +0000

World Sugar has crossed 29 cents/lb on Thursday as the increasing cost of food prices has added to global inflationary pressures. The Food and Agriculture Organization said in a recent statement that the increasing pressure on food prices will be sustained and that while some food commodity prices have slid over the last month, the food price index has again risen driven by prices in sugar and dairy.

Looking at current Monsoon activity, the IMD weekly update noted that the past week has seen ...

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Jul Sugar

aeroculus, TraderPlanet.com — Mon, 27 Jun 2011 21:04:40 +0000

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Monsoon Activity

aeroculus, TraderPlanet.com — Mon, 27 Jun 2011 13:18:54 +0000

As most of the commodity sector has seen a pullback in recent sessions, sugar futures have retreated slightly, but still remain relatively strong. The spot #11 contract is now just shy of 26 cents, which is still high when viewing the chart over the last six months. The first reason for sustained prices in the mid 20s is related to the lower numbers coming out of Brazil and Thailand for the current marketing year – these have been discussed in previous reports and is already priced into Jul...

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ENSO status

aeroculus, TraderPlanet.com — Tue, 07 Jun 2011 18:39:30 +0000

IRI has noted that while there is a small chance that La Nina conditions could re-emerge in the coming months, they have effectively declared the record setting 2010/11 La Nina event dead. We agree with their outlook for generally neutral conditions for the remainder of the year.

The chart below shows the dramatic shift in the Southern Oscillation Index from May into June, where the current value is in the neutral range. Further, the map from Weather Trends notes the absence of the cold e...

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Standard Chartered’s Earth Resource Conference

aeroculus, TraderPlanet.com — Fri, 03 Jun 2011 19:44:44 +0000

I’ll be on a panel discussing weather related investment opportunities at the Earth’s Resource Conference, sponsored by Standard Chartered.

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WT360 Tornado Watch

aeroculus, TraderPlanet.com — Wed, 01 Jun 2011 19:29:02 +0000

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US Corn Progress

aeroculus, TraderPlanet.com — Wed, 01 Jun 2011 13:12:32 +0000

Yesterday’s USDA Crop Progress Report verifies that the gap between last year’s progress has narrowed over the last week as a result of a favorable weather pattern in the Midwest. As of 29 May, the 18 major growing states are at 86% complete, vs. 97% last year and the 5 year average of 95% . The second table highlights the % emerged as of the same date, and we can see that the crop is getting off to a late start. At this stage, the later start to the 2011 corn crop is priced in, but there...

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