TraderPlanet.com :: chrisr333's Commentaries

Stock Index Rally is getting really really old

christian robinson — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 19:49:00 +0000

This rally in S&P has been nice. Its especially nice if you faded the WSJ and NYTimes bearish news columns which were permeating the land between Christmas and the first week of January. If you go back and read my entries, I suggested fading this bearishness.

Alas, now that the S&P is 11.58 rallied up to 13.54, almost 200 handles in 9 weeks. That, my friends, is un sustainable. And now we are starting to see the dow challenge the "next big round number" at 13,000.

Looking at the S&P, though it...Read More at TraderPlanet.com »

Thrusday USDA holds no surprises

christian robinson — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 15:24:00 +0000

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WSJ Likes Corn?

christian robinson — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 14:08:00 +0000

Fortunately, my shorts in beans which were profits remained profits even on this bounce. That's why I use stops.

As for Corn, CH, old crop has been on a nice bounce. We are flirting with the 100 day moving average, a big technical level. 6.50 will be a bump in the road on a rally which will be fueled by short covering in the wheat.

There's plenty of wheat, but Europe is worried about cold, Russian Exports, etc. etc.

Australia has another huge crop on hand.

Worldwide carry out is large and fund...

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I still like fading the S&P Rally, as well as shorting beans

christian robinson — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 18:49:00 +0000

Shorter term, I am still suspicious of the rally in the S&P. I was bearish slightly since 1/23. Today is 1/27 Yesterday we seem to have had a blow off top. People got caught long and then when the negative housing numbers came out, it dampened the initial fervor to buy stocks after the Fed's Dovish remarks.

Longer term we may go back to challend the 1350 level and 1360 levels. Over the next 72 hours, I think its better to have some 13.00-12.80 puts on looking for a shorter term technical brea...

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S&P cash has rallied 119 points in last 4 weeks to a new 6-month high

christian robinson — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 15:24:00 +0000

Interestingly, the S&P cash has bounced 119 point in the last 4 weeks. On December 19th, we posted a low at 1203. Today's high so far, has been 1322.

S&P cash is up at a long term trend line resistance today. Three points of to connect: First 1) High on 5/2/11 at 13.70 Second high 2) 7/7/11 at 13.56. Third intersection today at 13.16.... I'd sell this here and risk 5 points heat to the upside... down side target? 13.00 and then 12.80...

This is a good counter trend position. CNBC will be squaw...Read More at TraderPlanet.com »

1/17/12 Grain Comment: Beans Bounce w/ US $ dip

christian robinson — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 21:29:00 +0000

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Sayonara Grain prices or now

christian robinson — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 20:00:00 +0000

USDA in a word. Bearish> Looks like we are headed back to our December lows. Remember those? 11.00 bean, 5.80 corn, 5.77 wheat?
We may be headed longer term towards grain returning to being prices LESS than the price of production... Just wait, Its possible.

I hope I am right, but... if we plant 97 million acres of corn this year and 1) we get average rain fall and if the hybrids kick in, we could have a huge carry out in 2012.

This was broken down for me by a very respected and successful fun...

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Gold could melt to 1500 shortly

christian robinson — Wed, 28 Dec 2011 20:22:00 +0000

Currently Gold has violated the second of the three trendlines I have written abuot before.

Back on December 14th and 15th, Gold found support at 1570. We rallied to the high of 1611 on the 21st. Today's settlement below 1578 opens the floodgates to a test of 1500.
That is all.
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Dow Pops to new 5 month high/ no confirmation from S&P

christian robinson — Wed, 28 Dec 2011 14:28:00 +0000

Here we go again, with the Dow making a fresh run above the 12250 level in the cash. 12,500 should be resistance. However in the broader S&P 500, we have a ways to go to challenge 1292 which was the October 4 month high. Currently trading at 1265, we have 30 handles to go to challenge that level.

I think we just might challenge that old high in the S&P by the end of January. This week of trade will be suspect. IN fact, I recommend not trading this week due to the thin markets. If I had to tra...

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Gold at 1575-1572 Hits First Long Term Support

christian robinson — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 18:55:00 +0000

There are 3 long term trend lines to look at in Gold.
The First extends back to the Sep 2009 low at 1022 Hits at The Feb 9th 2010 low at 1070-=-- It projects support at 1350.. HMMM

The second Starts at the Feb 9th low at 1070, hits on the July 28th 2010 low at 1071and projects support at 1485.

The third is one we just bounced off at 1572... It starts back on July 28th at 1071, hits again at jan 27th tick at 1318 and projects to the 1575 level.

I noticed today that Cramer is friendly gold. He didn...Read More at TraderPlanet.com »

Dow Index remains stuck below 12,200, what does that mean?

christian robinson — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 21:10:00 +0000

I can't for the life of me wonder what is keeping the lid on Dow index above 12,200. 8 times in the last 2 months, we've challenged that level and fell back. Last Thursday we traded well above that level, up to 12,293 intra-day.. Break out traders had their windows broken out, however, as the index settled below 12,000, giving any unlucky and johnny=come-lately bull a 300 point bloody nose.

Once again, today we poked above 12,200, only to slip down to the 12,000 level again... Quite honestly, ...

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Fade the Public and the Professional's Bearishness

christian robinson — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 14:09:00 +0000

This morning a friend sent me a statistic I found very interesting. If you have read my stuff at all, I am a big fan of being contrarian.
Presently we have a situation where the public turned bearish stocks a few months ago. As of this writing, that bearishness has only gotten more extreme.

Even more interesting is the bearishness of institutional portfolio managers.

We have the Dow at or challenging 5 month high prices. The S&P is fighting resistance. However, if this upper lid does not hold,...

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Dow and S&P Diverge

christian robinson — Wed, 07 Dec 2011 21:43:00 +0000

Dow Index moves to a new 5-month high and high settlement. No confirmation with the S&P though, with that index 25 handles away from similar multi month highs. For now, I am suspect and would be more inclined to sit tight and look for a definitive move.

My opinion is that we will probably drift higher, however, if there is any negative news from Europe, I'd say, look out below. We are at the upper level of the 1000 point trading range. This could be a bull trap. Make a new highs. Get every one...

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12,183 today's high (What lurks above 12,200? )

christian robinson — Mon, 05 Dec 2011 22:23:00 +0000

12,228 on October 27th, 12,194 October 28th, 12,203 on November 14th, 12,178 last Friday, 12,183 today...5 trading days over the past 6 weeks. This is high tick that extends back to August 1st... So we are sitting at a 4 month high and can't get through.

I am not sure what this means. Quite frankly we could pop up, spark a short covering rally and then hit the wall at 12,675 and then careen lower, or we could remain in the 1,000 point trading range and drift back down to 11,200...
At this time...

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120K new jobs, unemployment drops to 8.6%

christian robinson — Fri, 02 Dec 2011 15:22:00 +0000

120K new jobs, unemployment drops to 8.6%. Interesting that this would have normally resulted in another strong performance. Here at 9:23 AM, two hours since the data was released and Dow futures are only up 12,128... Makes me stop and say hmmmm. In fact we may get a buy the rumor sell the fact activity today.

Also worrisome, the dow is up against the 12.200 level of resistance I have been talking about for weeks. The last time we got here, I got short solely on the fact that we were at resist...

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