TraderPlanet.com :: msturdy's Commentaries

US Dollar Index Stuck On 76.4% Support

msturdy, TraderPlanet.com — Thu, 01 Sep 2011 20:47:00 +0000

Earlier this year a half-hearted recovery attempt came to naught. The US Dollar Index is currently resting on a 76.4% retracement support –we wait to see if this provides a launch pad for a fresh recovery attempt.

WEEKLY CHART Earlier support came from the bear channel base projection, following the brief breach of the 74.170 Nov-09 low.
DAILY CHART See how the Jul pullback has stuck at 76.4% support, fortified by the 73.506 07-Jun low. A clear positive reaction is needed to reduce bear risk....

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Sugar Recovery Still Unable to Overcome Resistance

msturdy, TraderPlanet.com — Thu, 01 Sep 2011 18:00:00 +0000

After a recent s/term setback in Sugar an ensuing recovery has found resistance at previous levels. We wait to see if a more lasting pullback phase will get underway should prices keep easing.

WEEKLY CHART –CONTINUATION The recovery from support near to the old 2006 high looks to be faltering on its approach to the 32.40 76.4% retracement level.
SUGAR 11 DAILY CHART –Oct-11: Unable to hold below the 27.57 Feb high and 38.2% retracement the market has bounced to retest prior resistance around ...

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Gold's strength and vulnerability

msturdy, TraderPlanet.com — Fri, 26 Aug 2011 08:43:00 +0000

WEEKLY GOLD CHART

The market’s run from the hesitation and pause at the 1980 high is clear.

The resolution of that pause was the creation of a Head and Shoulders continuation pattern.

That catalyst set in motion the next leg of the market.

The bull momentum has been maintained by two more continuation patterns – triangles.

But note well the acceleration of the market after the second of those.

Note too, the violent price action of this week in the light of a self-evidently overbought situati...

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USD/ZAR Poised To Make Better 2011 Recovery

msturdy, TraderPlanet.com — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 21:47:00 +0000

After an early, short-lived recovery attempt this year market action has been fairly directionless. A recent fresh rebound off 2011 support has turned attention to key resistance levels which are the portal to a better recovery phase.

WEEKLY CHART:Support this year has come above the 6.4000 Nov-07 low. Latest strength has turned attention to the old rising support/return line, near 7.6000 now.Note also the 23.6% recovery level of the prior downmove from Oct-08 high, at 7.7770 –a push through ...

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Carbon Emissions Rebound From Dual Fibonacci Support

msturdy, TraderPlanet.com — Tue, 23 Aug 2011 19:35:00 +0000

The sharp price reversal in EUA Carbon Emissions from the May high sidelined earlier bulls. Finally interesting support has emerged from two adjacent Fibo levels, prompting a bounce.

WEEKLY CHART –CONTINUATION Following support from around the 10.45 76.4% retracement level, which saw a virtual key reversal week result, a recovery is in process. See Daily Chart for further support.
DAILY CHART –Dec-11: Earlier in Aug there was a clear rebound off our latest Fibo projection at 10.40, which coin...

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Oil looks weak

msturdy, TraderPlanet.com — Fri, 19 Aug 2011 07:28:00 +0000

If the developed economies of the US. Euro zone and UK fall into recession, oil demand will weaken. The oil price over recent weeks has begun to price that in, but has it gone far enough?

TECHNICALS:

WEEKLY CHART

The market’s medium-term rally over the last two years from the $40 supports looks to be over.

First the diagonal trendline has been smashed.

Second, the two prior Highs supports at 87.15 and 92.58 have been broken…

DAILY CHART

The detail of the breakdown shows the emergence of a bea...

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Temporary Halt Seen in USD/CHF ‘s Slide

msturdy, TraderPlanet.com — Thu, 18 Aug 2011 11:02:00 +0000

USD/CHF has been grinding lower through 2011 and recently the pace accelerated. A s/term halt and sharp rebound has followed, but at the moment this could only be temporary.

WEEKLY CHART: The downtrend recently neared the 2.618 swing projection off prior Nov-09/Jun-10 upmove, at 0.6975. Following a s/term rebound note the current 0.8180 23.6% retracement of the move from 1.1730 Jun-10 high, offering first important resistance.
DAILY CHART: The recent acceleration lower has reversed temporaril...

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Copper Back at Pivotal Support Area

msturdy, TraderPlanet.com — Wed, 17 Aug 2011 17:21:00 +0000

The May/Jul recovery in Copper prices, from earlier Fibonacci support, stopped short of the Feb high and, now, the recent quick reversal has seen the market return to key supports on the daily and longer term charts.

WEEKLY CHART -CONTINUATION Earlier support came from around a 38.2% pullback level. The market has now put fresh pressure on this, which now coincides with the bull channel base. A break below this would mean a more prolonged correction was underway.
DAILY CHART –Sep-11: The rece...

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Pullback In AUD/USD Hits Key Support Area

msturdy, TraderPlanet.com — Fri, 12 Aug 2011 15:59:00 +0000

After reaching a target on the long term chart AUD/USD has pulled back smartly, testing a pivotal Fibonacci support area. Bears will strengthen their ranks on a break of this.

MONTHLY CHART: Note how clear resistance has been found at an equality target we had marked in in the FX Specialist Guide, the 2001/2008 upmove extended from the 2008 low. On this chart note the 23.6% pullback of the 2008/2011 upleg at 0.9880, which lies not far from the 0.9849 2008 high. This offers first key support h...

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Crude Oil Seeping To Lower Levels

msturdy, TraderPlanet.com — Fri, 12 Aug 2011 15:57:00 +0000

The strong rally in Brent Crude in July put bears on a cautious footing. However, a decisive reversal at Fibonacci resistance has kept the medium term bear outlook intact.

BRENT WEEKLY CHART -CONTINUATION Earlier support around a 38.2% pullback level has now been breached. This provides a boost to medium term bears. The next important support area starts at the longer term 38.2% pullback at 92.32 and includes the shorter term 90.64 61.8% level and 89.58 May-10 high.
BRENT DAILY CHART –Oct-11:...

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The opportunities in UK Gilts and US Bonds

msturdy, TraderPlanet.com — Fri, 12 Aug 2011 09:51:00 +0000

Uk and US bond markets are set to go higher having overcome their Prior All Time Highs and in the case of the Uk Gilts, good clear powerful continuation patterns are on the verge of being completed...

MONTHLY UK GILT CHART

The market has overcome the important Pivot at 124.95 from 2002- and where it has failed twice before in 2009 and 2010.

Final confirmation of the breakthrough requires a monthly close of course, but the evidence is mounting not least because of the completion of a large b...

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The anxiety of the S&P bulls

msturdy, TraderPlanet.com — Fri, 05 Aug 2011 07:35:00 +0000

WEEKLY CHART

The market has stumbled since the beginning of the year.

Three times it has tried to get back above the first High made in February of 1332.60.

So, a small triple top or even a Head and Shoulders reversal may be on the cards….

But in the context of the big bull run from the beginning of 2009, even though the diagonal trend support has been broken, the Prior High of 1216 needs to be broken… to convince the bears.

And note the coincident support at that level from the Fibonacci re...

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Will Key 38.2% Support in GBP/USD Last?

msturdy, TraderPlanet.com — Thu, 04 Aug 2011 11:11:00 +0000

Following the late April high in GBP/USD the subsequent slip back found good support from a key 38.2% area, with recovery then triggered. But after recent resistance the key support could once more come under scrutiny.

WEEKLY CHART: The previous break through falling resistance was bullish –but after the 50% recovery level was neared the market slipped. Support from the old falling return line has held so far.
DAILY CHART: Note how effective dual support from the 38.2% retracement and channel...

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Silver Recovery Set To Continue

msturdy, TraderPlanet.com — Wed, 03 Aug 2011 21:05:00 +0000

The earlier 2011 fall back in Silver prices found interesting Fibonacci support on the daily and longer term charts and, now, the initial recovery looks well-placed to further satisfy shorter term bulls.

WEEKLY CHART -CONTINUATION The sharp drop back earlier in 2011 has found support close to a 38.2% pullback level, prompting recovery. Look closer...
DAILY CHART –Sep-11: Following on from initial 76.4% support in May a period of indecision has led to a breach of 38.2% resistance and erosion o...

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EUR/GBP Picture Not Yet Clearly Bullish

msturdy, TraderPlanet.com — Thu, 28 Jul 2011 17:13:00 +0000

Following new 2011 highs recently the EUR/GBP cross rate has slipped back from long term resistance. Key supports are coming under scrutiny, the first of which being a 38.2% pullback level.

WEEKLY CHART: The earlier breach of falling resistance looked to be a positive sign but note how the old rising support/return line resisted bulls’ advances. It is not yet clear if bulls have a clear advantage –note that support has so far come from the 38.2% pullback of the whole recovery from Jun-10 0.80...

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