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Something’s Happening Here …

It’s official. I am joining the “wary” camp. As the song goes, “There’s something happening here / what it is ain’t exactly clear …” Yup, I had to go back fifty years for that line from a Buffalo Springfield tune, but the sentiment expresses my new-found wariness about the market. Primarily, my wariness stems from overheating, too much too fast, and chew fifty times before swallowing. The...

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Can the Market Hold On At This Altitude?

Okay, so I suggested yesterday that Tuesday’s market move was a bit exaggerated for both the current climate and the “news” about the Fed. I must admit, the buying that happened yesterday seemed a bit stronger than warranted. The lack of follow-through yesterday (even after the FOMC notes came out with the language the market supposedly likes to hear) suggested a soft bullishness, a lack of...

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The War Has Just Begun

I must admit, the buying that happened yesterday seemed a bit stronger than warranted. Just the idea that the Fed will have more wiggle room if inflation remains low is not a reason for the market to jump back into record territory. True, underneath the Fed nonsense is the economic story, which goes something like this … Homebuilder sentiment jumped to its highest level in nearly nine years...

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OMG, the Fed Stuff Again

Yesterday, my word for the day was “conflicted.” Today, David Moenning over at State of the Markets has his word for the day and it is … The word of the day appears to be weakness. One reason he is suggesting this (among others including his technical charts) is the overseas markets are showing weakness from a lack of encouraging news. Asian stock markets are down across the board this...

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Conflicted? Yup Conflicted

“Conflicted” is the word today. Economic data is always conflicted, as it is today. Industrial Production is slightly down, but the Empire State Manufacturing Index is way up, almost double the previous reading. Unemployment is higher than it should be, when you count the all the folks who have given up looking for a job, but …   In the first half of this year, the (nominal) hourly...

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Market Consolidation and a Coming Catalyst

Constant news in and constant news out. That is the flow of the market. I would like to call it a problem, but if a thing is the norm, and life revolves around it, then how could it be a problem? It is something you just learn to live with. The daily news flow, and the market’s reaction to that flow, is something market players just learn to live with. The important thing to understand about...

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Range Bound, Yes, Financial Television, No

First off, I slightly missed the mark yesterday with my intuition. I suggested that if the market show signs of going green, the bulls would jump on board and make the day a green day. Fine, but I followed up with this. My sense, though, is the bulls are not quite convinced and the bears are. The comment above clearly suggested a “hedge” in my bet, which suggests that I am not so certain...

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Some Days, You Just Don’t Know – Most Actually

My guess is it is Wednesday. Yup, I am right, it is Wednesday. So what is the market doing this fine Wednesday? U.S. stock prices fell on Wednesday on growing bets the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates faster than previously thought, while anxiety over whether Scotland might break off from the United Kingdom unnerved investors in Europe, hurting sterling and boosting the dollar....

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Women Actually Make More Money Than Men?

Today, I am headed off the reservation for a look at something unexpected, interesting, and quite mind boggling, but before I do that, I have just a bit of reservation news to throw out for thought. Treasuries Fall With U.S. Stocks as Dollar Gains on Fed The market is down this morning and the reported reason is the above headline. Apparently, the San Francisco arm of the Fed subtly warned...

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Where Did The Divergence Go?

Earlier this morning, on this grey cloudy day, the market seemed unhappy. It looks to be feeling a bit better now, oh 90 minutes in, but it might not stay that way. There is a new fear coming our way, something never seen before, at least not in 300 years or so. A week ago everybody assumed voters would say “No” in overwhelming numbers and the issue of Scottish devolution from Great Britain...

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Nothing Changes, As Much As It Remains the Same

Nothing changes as much as it remains the same. This saying used to hang above my office door many years ago when I worked as a restaurant manager. It perplexed me at times and at other times it made perfect sense. This is how I feel about the market – perplexed and not. For example, the market action this week makes sense. It is reasonable for the market to vacillate within a range,...

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The Story Is In the US Shale

One of the main story lines for the market is the transformation of global energy production. The energy future is mostly here and now, so one should be looking for and finding opportunities to invest in this unfolding narrative. Part of this story is oil, the black gold that powered the Industrial Revolution and created a motorized world.   I wrote yesterday that Andrew Hall, the iconic oil...

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Working Hard Wins The Game of Risk

We open today with more news from worn-torn Ukraine. Good news, perhaps, but whatever the label, the market is not overly impressed with it, which suggests it is still trying to finds its level. Russian stocks jumped the most in four months, the ruble rebounded and credit risk receded as President Vladimir Putin outlined a peace plan for Ukraine after agreeing with the country’s leader on...

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September Will See the Money Flow

September is here and life will now get back to a routine for so many of us. For many market players, though, a September routine is filled with trepidation. The month has a bad reputation. Is it deserved? Let’s look at the last five years to see how they turned out for September. Going back any further than five years seems irrelevant, as the market world changed forever in 2008. True in...

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That’s About as Simple as It Gets

Yesterday, my friend Miggie said to me, “You seem to always write about the general market anymore.” I thought for a moment about the implied question: “Why?” In that moment, I came up with several reasons for why I focus on general market commentary, which I told her, but in my mini litany of reasons, I heard my words about you, the reader. Writers write to an audience, but writers are not...

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