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Oil and Hedge Funds Are Not Doing Well

Oil and Hedge Funds Are Not Doing Well

A strengthening US dollar causing emerging market currencies to tumble, oil prices in free fall, Japan reporting its economic decline, and China, well, just say the word, “China.” Did I tag all of the reasons the market might be down today? Aside from the above, we have more to look at this coming week, but do not be surprised if the market bounces around a bit, especially as we move closer...

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Sometimes, You Gotta Make A Call

Sometimes, You Gotta Make A Call

Here we are, just 16 trading days from 2015 and I must admit, I am on pins and needles regarding the market finish for 2014. Will the Dow go where no Dow has ever gone before – 18,000? As I write, the venerable index is but 31 points away from crossing over into that new frontier; yet, there are those technicians who look at the market numbers transposed on a chart and they arrive at a...

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This Year Is Quickly Becoming Next Year

This Year Is Quickly Becoming Next Year

The year that was is quickly morphing into the year that will be. All signs are that 2015 will be as good as, or better than, 2014, and, despite the ups and downs in the market, 2014 will turn out to be quite a good year. It appears my “prediction” that the Dow will finish above 18,000 is on track and my prediction that the S&P 500 will finish above 2050 looks to be a bit off. In fact,...

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Don’t Fight The Tape, Believe In It

Don’t Fight The Tape, Believe In It

Okay, so the market decided it wanted to go up appreciably yesterday. Today it is working on the news from the Fed and the US government and then balancing that against the economic news from Europe and Russia. Euro-area services and manufacturing grew less than initially estimated last month, leaving the economy facing near-stagnation as the European Central Bank considers its options on...

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Holiday Sales Down – Not Quite

Holiday Sales Down – Not Quite

First, let me say that yesterday was a good day for the market. It needs a bit of a breather, some rebalancing. What we don’t need, but we have it and always will, is the lame analysis given us in the breathless media. A down day for stocks Monday, sparked by the disappointing start in holiday sales. Okay, had the writer taken the time to actually research his/her thesis, he/she would have...

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How Can Falling Oil Prices Be Bad?

How Can Falling Oil Prices Be Bad?

Welcome back. I hope everyone that celebrates Thanksgiving had a good one. I certainly had a leisurely five days. I had time to read a lot. It is amazing what one can pick up after five days of reading. So here is what I learned in the last five days of reading. The world is still a nasty place because stupid people are killing innocent people, but it is also full of hope for many others,...

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Money Never Sleeps, But It Does Take Time Off

Money Never Sleeps, But It Does Take Time Off

If you are reading this, my guess is you are a die-hard trader or a family member. If you are the latter, thank you for supporting me. If you are the former, I have some advice for you. Gordon Gekko is wrong, sort of. He famously said in his speech to Bud Fox, “Money never sleeps.” Well, it is true, money flows in and out of markets 24 hours per day, 365 days per year on a rotating schedule...

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No Reason To Change The Plan

No Reason To Change The Plan

More numbers are in and there are revisions to the US government’s second and third quarter economic data reports. Not that it matters, really, as they are lagging numbers, but they do show a stronger continuation of the economic pattern that has been happening now for years. The economy in the U.S. expanded more than previously forecast in the third quarter, reflecting bigger gains in...

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Money Might Never Sleep, But It Does Cat Nap

Money Might Never Sleep, But It Does Cat Nap

We are heading into a week of anticipation. No, traders and investors are not anticipating major market movement, just the opposite. This week promises to be slow and tedious, not much to write home about. Then again, the market has a way of breaking promises, so you never can tell. In any case, historically, the money takes a break early on Wednesday and doesn’t come back until Monday, but...

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Go Get ‘Em Boys And Girls

Go Get ‘Em Boys And Girls

Boom! Just like that the market leaps forward. At least thus far this morning it has leaped forward. Who knows if it will hold for the day, but, so far, the news of the day has created some excitement.   China cut interest rates unexpectedly on Friday, stepping up efforts to support the world's second-biggest economy as it heads towards its slowest expansion in nearly a quarter of a century....

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Understanding “Then” Might Help You Take Advantage Now

Understanding “Then” Might Help You Take Advantage Now

The recent whipsaw market has confused many traders and investors. Specifically, the rise and then fall in volatility is most puzzling. Do emotions and money swing that quickly?  On the spectrum of fear/greed, the money flows back and forth like a windshield wiper, but as the markets move higher and higher, the fear of losing gains becomes more pronounced than the fear of losing out on...

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The Next Big Wave Is Building

The Next Big Wave Is Building

Housing and labor posted good numbers today (again), but what seems to interest the market more is the inflation data that came out today. Underlying inflation pressures pushed higher in October, even as falling gasoline prices kept overall U.S. consumer prices in check. The Labor Department said on Thursday its so-called core Consumer Price Index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2...

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The Fed, Banks, Housing, And The Economy

The Fed, Banks, Housing, And The Economy

The market jumped out a little rough this morning. A bit o’ jitters about the new lofty heights, I suspect. Certainly, the good news on the US housing front could not be the reason. Groundbreaking for single-family homes climbed in October and permits for all future projects reached a six-year high to signal construction will add to U.S. economic growth in early 2015. FYI, the number on the...

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What Will The Fed Do Come June?

So, the S&P 500 crossed over the 2050 line today, just about 1.5 months ahead of schedule. At least that would be my schedule, as I suggested about two weeks ago that the index would hit that mark by the end of the year. Okay, so technically I am correct, but I don’t want to be. Historically, the overall market tends to go down Thanksgiving week, so I can expect that might happen again,...

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Stick With The Trend

Stick With The Trend

Well, first let me say Japan slipping back into recession does not appear (at the moment) to be a major upset for the market. Japan unexpectedly sank into a recession last quarter as the world’s third-largest economy struggled to shake off the impact of an April sales-tax boost I find the market movement today quite interesting, as the above, coupled with China’s economic slowdown and the...

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