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Is It The January Effect? Maybe, Maybe Not

Is It The January Effect? Maybe, Maybe Not

This is the first week of January, and there has not been much chatter about the January Effect, at least not that I can tell. It is always a topic bandied about at this time of the year. So, what exactly am I writing about? The January Effect is … The tendency of the stock market to rise between December 31 and the end of the first week in January. The January Effect occurs because many...

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We Will See Mr. Gross

We Will See Mr. Gross

Not a bad day for the market, considering the nasty days that preceded it this and last week. All the major indices up strongly, the VIX down a bit, and oil, well, flat, right around $48 for WTI crude. The latter is important in that in the many analysts ascribed the aforementioned nasty days to the falling price of oil. If true, then the market adapted today. My thinking, however, is...

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Find Your Opportunities And Make Your Bets

Find Your Opportunities And Make Your Bets

Here we go again. This year is starting out to be like 2014 – excessive and unwarranted selling. Oh well. It is true, you can’t fight the tape. It is what it is and it ain’t no more. We just have to be patient while the market does its thing. In the meantime, think about where you might put your money this year. Citigroup (C) and other big banks including Bank of America (BAC), J.P. Morgan...

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It is Best To Get Out Of The Way

It is Best To Get Out Of The Way

Well, I guess the prevailing attitude of those who have returned from the holidays is sell, sell, and sell. Perhaps the close of the year spooked some, or perhaps the need to book profit is the reason. All I know for sure is the VIX is up over 20, the RUT is back to 1185, the S&P is more than 80 points from its all-time high, the MID is once again below its 52-week high, as is the NASDQ,...

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Do Not Tempt The Market Gods

Do Not Tempt The Market Gods

Okay, so here is the first lesson of 2015 – Never tempt the market gods. Not that I have not learned this lesson many times over, but sometimes I forget it, as I did on Wednesday when I wrote the following worlds filled with hubris … Now, if the market finishes today as I think it will, then, I can say I will miss 2014 professionally. The year behaved mostly as I suggested it would when I...

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Look To Europe In 2015

Look To Europe In 2015

Finally, the last day of the year is here. As I wrote last week, I will not miss 2014, personally. As to the stock market, overall, it turned out to be quite a good year. Now, if the market finishes today as I think it will, then, I can say I will miss 2014 professionally. The year behaved mostly as I suggested it would when I suggested it would, and if the Dow finishes above 18,000 today,...

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2014 Is Giving Way To 2015, Oh Boy!

2014 Is Giving Way To 2015, Oh Boy!

After today, there is one more day of trading left in 2014. The year will probably not go out wildly, which speaks to the possibility the volatility that characterized 2014 might dissipate in 2015. That would be nice, but my guess is we will see some intense volatility as the two “big” stories of 2015 unfold – when will the Fed raise rates and by how much and will the stupid heads in...

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Go Find Them And Trade Them

Go Find Them And Trade Them

Which companies are involved in the movement and storage of oil? This is a question I asked myself when I read the following. Oil supply will continue to rise as U.S. productions stays strong and OPEC continues to flood the global market. With global production exceeding demand the question soon will become where do we put this oil? A quick look shows more than a dozen make tanks for...

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P.S. The Russell 2000 Passed Its 52-week High

P.S. The Russell 2000 Passed Its 52-week High

Well, like most folks who celebrate these holidays, I stepped out of my normal life and into a world of over consumption and lots of sitting around sipping. Yup, I feel sluggish, a bit heavy, and, well, tired today. Given that, I want to make just a couple of quick points for consideration before heading into the weekend for more overconsumption and sitting around sipping.    Consider that...

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Get On Board For The 2015 Ride

Get On Board For The 2015 Ride

The Dow crosses 18,000 as the year closes up. Now, if the market can hold on through this short week and the first part of next, it will finish the year just about where I suggested it would last summer. I saw all the fundamental signs, economic pointers that suggested the market would attract buyers and it has, despite the panic that ensued in October.   U.S. and European shares rose on...

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The Final Stretch of 2014

The Final Stretch of 2014

Today is the Monday that begins the last week of 2014. Chances are, most folks who work the market are already checking out, but that does not mean we will not see activity. The last few days could mean profit taking or buying. So far today, it is the latter that seems to be the choice. The market is working hard to go higher, much higher. Yet and still, the argument remains as to the...

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Well, Well, Well … No Market Collapse?

Well, Well, Well … No Market Collapse?

Well, yesterday’s market rebound from recent losses impressed me, as it did many others, but the closing was absolutely breathtaking. Yesterday’s finish surprised me in its strength and the message sent was the bulls were never out the game, that they were just waiting for the moment to capitalize on the bears insistence. Yesterday was the moment. Today’s market action pushes this thesis...

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Back To The Future, Almost

Back To The Future, Almost

Is this back to the future? Actually, I should ask is this “almost” back to the future? In just two days, the market has clawed, well, that is not the right word. How about in just two days, the market has roared its way back to where it should be, just a little bit down from its record highs. After their biggest six-day tumble in three years, European shares have regained more than half of...

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I Don’t Have Anything To Say About The Market Today

I Don’t Have Anything To Say About The Market Today

Every work day, I read the news, watch the market, write what I write, and I generally do it with a dispassionate, objective view. Some days, though, my dispassionate view is challenged, but I get past it. Other days, such as yesterday, I read about an action so cold, I cannot put my compassion away; I cannot look the other way. My objectivity goes out the window and I just want to scream....

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Yes, These Are Uncertain Times, But ...

Yes, These Are Uncertain Times, But ...

Man-oh-man, the battle is raging now. The push and pull between the bears and the bulls is both riveting and disconcerting. It is like the moment of passing a car crash – you are compelled to look even though you know you are looking at potential pain and suffering. At one point today, the Dow was well over 200 points and in this moment, this very moment, it is struggling to stay in the...

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