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An Entropic Market Obeying the Laws

What goes up must come down. For every action, there is an opposite and equal reaction. Yup, I am referencing fundamental laws of the universe, Newtonian Physics, if you will. Well, actually the first maxim is a colloquial offshoot of the law of gravity, but it works. Just look at the market today. The price-action is huge and the movement is down, way down. My-oh-my, things can change...

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Ride Out the Volatility, It Will Settle Down

Financial writing does not have to be staid, flat, or dull; it can be colorful, and it often is. Last week’s new highs have been greeted with nothing short of a smack-down as talk of the “death cross” in the Russell 2000 and a potential “Alibaba top” have dominated the discussion on trading desks. I guess the same could be said for market technician terminology, as it relates to charting....

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The Market is Just Being the Market

Yesterday seemed to be an alarm bell for the bearish clan. Sheesh, give em a triple-point drop on the Dow and they all wake up screaming. I read one technical analysis this morning … well, here is the title, BEARISH WEDGE: COULD THE DOW DROP 1000 POINTS? I understand in theory technicians are not bears or bulls; they simply read the charts and then report what they see, but I have to ask the...

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The Floor and Ceiling Change, But The Wall Remains The Same

Here we go again … Another crisis of confidence, even as the penultimate geopolitical event unwinds from open hostility to verbal aggression. Russia and Ukraine seem to be moving toward some sort of pact that will bring some peace to that region. So what? That news is so last week anyway. How about that China, then? Seems it never loses its power to contribute to the constant wall of worry...

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Something’s Happening Here …

It’s official. I am joining the “wary” camp. As the song goes, “There’s something happening here / what it is ain’t exactly clear …” Yup, I had to go back fifty years for that line from a Buffalo Springfield tune, but the sentiment expresses my new-found wariness about the market. Primarily, my wariness stems from overheating, too much too fast, and chew fifty times before swallowing. The...

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Can the Market Hold On At This Altitude?

Okay, so I suggested yesterday that Tuesday’s market move was a bit exaggerated for both the current climate and the “news” about the Fed. I must admit, the buying that happened yesterday seemed a bit stronger than warranted. The lack of follow-through yesterday (even after the FOMC notes came out with the language the market supposedly likes to hear) suggested a soft bullishness, a lack of...

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The War Has Just Begun

I must admit, the buying that happened yesterday seemed a bit stronger than warranted. Just the idea that the Fed will have more wiggle room if inflation remains low is not a reason for the market to jump back into record territory. True, underneath the Fed nonsense is the economic story, which goes something like this … Homebuilder sentiment jumped to its highest level in nearly nine years...

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OMG, the Fed Stuff Again

Yesterday, my word for the day was “conflicted.” Today, David Moenning over at State of the Markets has his word for the day and it is … The word of the day appears to be weakness. One reason he is suggesting this (among others including his technical charts) is the overseas markets are showing weakness from a lack of encouraging news. Asian stock markets are down across the board this...

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Conflicted? Yup Conflicted

“Conflicted” is the word today. Economic data is always conflicted, as it is today. Industrial Production is slightly down, but the Empire State Manufacturing Index is way up, almost double the previous reading. Unemployment is higher than it should be, when you count the all the folks who have given up looking for a job, but …   In the first half of this year, the (nominal) hourly...

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Market Consolidation and a Coming Catalyst

Constant news in and constant news out. That is the flow of the market. I would like to call it a problem, but if a thing is the norm, and life revolves around it, then how could it be a problem? It is something you just learn to live with. The daily news flow, and the market’s reaction to that flow, is something market players just learn to live with. The important thing to understand about...

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Range Bound, Yes, Financial Television, No

First off, I slightly missed the mark yesterday with my intuition. I suggested that if the market show signs of going green, the bulls would jump on board and make the day a green day. Fine, but I followed up with this. My sense, though, is the bulls are not quite convinced and the bears are. The comment above clearly suggested a “hedge” in my bet, which suggests that I am not so certain...

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Some Days, You Just Don’t Know – Most Actually

My guess is it is Wednesday. Yup, I am right, it is Wednesday. So what is the market doing this fine Wednesday? U.S. stock prices fell on Wednesday on growing bets the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates faster than previously thought, while anxiety over whether Scotland might break off from the United Kingdom unnerved investors in Europe, hurting sterling and boosting the dollar....

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Women Actually Make More Money Than Men?

Today, I am headed off the reservation for a look at something unexpected, interesting, and quite mind boggling, but before I do that, I have just a bit of reservation news to throw out for thought. Treasuries Fall With U.S. Stocks as Dollar Gains on Fed The market is down this morning and the reported reason is the above headline. Apparently, the San Francisco arm of the Fed subtly warned...

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Where Did The Divergence Go?

Earlier this morning, on this grey cloudy day, the market seemed unhappy. It looks to be feeling a bit better now, oh 90 minutes in, but it might not stay that way. There is a new fear coming our way, something never seen before, at least not in 300 years or so. A week ago everybody assumed voters would say “No” in overwhelming numbers and the issue of Scottish devolution from Great Britain...

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Nothing Changes, As Much As It Remains the Same

Nothing changes as much as it remains the same. This saying used to hang above my office door many years ago when I worked as a restaurant manager. It perplexed me at times and at other times it made perfect sense. This is how I feel about the market – perplexed and not. For example, the market action this week makes sense. It is reasonable for the market to vacillate within a range,...

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