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Oh, Where to Begin?

Some days, it is hard to find a starting point; today is one of those days. Do I start with a reaffirmation of a point I have been pounding? … Over the past two years, any equity market corrections have been rare and limited in their magnitude. Notably, they were followed closely by a rebound, which often pushed up indices to new highs. As a result, investors that followed a disciplined...

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Do I Sell Or Do I Wait?

I don’t know about you, but I am awfully reflective for a Thursday. I am remembering all the way back to yesterday when I wrote, “At the hump in the week and the market is flat. The VIX is in a nice, easy place, say in the mid-14 zone. The S&P 500 and DIJA are floating around the zero line. My trades are mixed; some are up and some are down …” I am thinking about the sentiment of that...

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Dick Tracy Told Us It Was Coming

At the hump in the week and the market is flat. The VIX is in a nice, easy place, say in the mid-14 zone. The S&P 500 and DIJA are floating around the zero line. My trades are mixed; some are up and some are down, but all are behaving appropriately for current market conditions. Anybody who follows the market closely knows that when the VIX spikes, stock prices go down. And vice versa;...

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Another Day, Another Day Closer

Today is Tuesday, the day after Friday’s, I mean Monday’s supposed dead-cat bounce and the market is striking boldly into the green. There is no appreciable positive economic data, so the only thing left is Putin, aka the Ukraine/Russia event.   “We don’t want to split up Ukraine, we don’t need that,” the Russian president said in a speech to parliament. “Don’t believe those who scare you...

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Sometimes History Is and Sometimes It Is Not …

Even though it is Monday, the market is up and going strong right from the start. Is today the dead-cat bounce predicted (not mine) after last Thursday’s rout? Is it the Ukraine secession vote on Sunday that has the market all fired up thinking the situation there is coming to a close? Maybe it is one or both, but my money is on the strong manufacturing data that came out this morning. The...

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No Worries, Buy When the Price is Right

Yesterday, the news of Russia building up its forces on the Ukrainian border, along with China telling the world once again it is growing too fast and it needs to slow down, sent the stock market reeling, or so the news told us. This morning, the market opened in the green, but it is now in the red just a smidge. China and Russia are still in the news, so are we to conclude that the market...

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Work Hard and You might Catch a Leprechaun

The week is almost over and my fuel-cell stocks are still trading at levels too high for their valuations. That itself is not uncommon, but what is uncommon is the group is still rising in the face of PLUG’s earnings that did not meet expectations and the short crowd firing at them with all barrels. Although PLUG and BLDP are nowhere near their highs of just a few days ago, they are still...

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Geese, Gander, and Buy Low, Sell High

It was quite the day yesterday in the fuel-cell world. How far the mighty can fall when the mighty fly high only on hot air. PLUG fell from the high $11 zone all the way down to just below $6 about as quickly as market gravity allows. Today, it is up somewhat, just as BLDP and FCEL are, but me thinks this is the desperate trying to recoup huge losses. Well, yesterday you commented on the...

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Is The Launch For Real?

As a trader, I watch everything I can, but there are events or stocks I study carefully because they fly in the face of my sense of what is rational. The recent fuel-cell stock “event” and the stock PLUG are both worth my time to look at carefully. Investors, it seems have come to the realization that, after years of depending on government subsidy for survival and still losing money, these...

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The S&P 500, Fuel-Cell Stocks, and Putin

As Monday mornings go, this is, well, Monday. Unless it is a holiday, Mondays usually are somewhat of a downer. The first day of the work week also means the weekend is over. Even though I have the best job in the world, meaning I can arrange my time pretty much the way I want to, I still love the weekend.  Anyway … On this day in 2009, the S&P 500 hit its nadir, closing at 676.53. That...

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Confidence and the Rules of the Game

Higher highs scare me, especially on stocks that are too high relative to valuation. Yet, I wonder if that fear is something from my past, a time when I knew less and lost more. I wonder if I need to up my confidence a notch to take advantage of a market that is refusing to give me openings on the downside. If we stopped buying tops in this market, there would have been plenty of missed...

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A Good Market for Trading

If one is so inclined, one should see the market as teacher these days. Actually, it is always a teacher, but since January, it has excelled in teaching about the relationship between data, price-action, and expectations in the market – on the surface it seems inconsistent, but underneath …     U.S. stock index futures ticked higher on Thursday ahead of labor and factory data, while...

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Lots To Do Today

Do you ever have moments when you question your trading strategy? I am certainly having one of those moments today. Actually, I had the same thought yesterday, but today it is more intense. As I have been writing, the fuel-cell technology market is booming, at least the markets I am trading are going crazy. Normally, I trade up and down on percentages. That is the plan I have been using for...

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The Power That Pushed Putin Back

Putin Ends Military Exercises in Western Russia Says Interfax; Micex Jumps Another day, another crisis seemingly resolved for the market. Up, up, and away goes the market after falling, falling, and falling yesterday. And why is this happening? It would appear an economy and a stock market can join forces to become quite the heroic tandem. Together, they can convince even despots to back...

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Be Careful of Wishing

Wow! One of the great maxims in life is: “Be careful about what you wish – you just might get it.” Well, on Friday, I wrote the following. Will March and April bring May flowers? It all depends on the economic data, Russia, and the Ukraine now that the earnings season is winding down. I am not so sure I won’t get my wish for a market pullback so I can buy some more. Today, the market is...

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