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All Quiet, and Then the Breathless Media Did Its Thing

One thing to understand about the market is that it is always forward looking, until it is not. Although my status in life comes nowhere near that of celebrity, the statement I just wrote represents the quality hedging of celebrity analysts. The fact is the market is a forward looking entity, as traders and investors like to get their money in on what will happen. Like surfers, they want to...

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Just Like That, HFTs Reverse the Tide

Just like that, “the tide reversed and the sea exposed where it had been and where that was, the once proud boats lay askew on the muddy bottom.” A poetic description of what happened yesterday, no doubt, and, yet, it works. In one moment, the market was up and in the next, well, the tide reversed. Equities reversed gains as the Wall Street Journal reported that Syrian warplanes struck...

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Iron Rule: The Market Will Behave Accordingly

And the hits just keep on coming, or so the musical mantra of the 60s said. Back then, pop music was fast becoming a part of Americana, thanks to the refinement of a tiny invention that was born as an idea in 1874, became tangible in 1922, shaped up in 1948, and then became a commercial reality in 1954 – the transistor. That little electronic gadget gave birth to the transistor radio, which...

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Find Opportunity in Alternatives and Go For It

As expected, the market is retreating a bit this morning, and that is a good thing. I like that the VIX is rising a bit as well, almost 4% this morning, which puts it into the mid-eleven range. I will feel even better if the VIX gets to and holds in the 12-13 range and the market trades in a tight range for a while. It needs to settle into its new highs and consolidate a base. I am not happy...

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Too Much Too Fast?

Okay, so I won’t be the first to tell you the market is getting a bit top heavy, but it is getting a bit top heavy. Not that I mind, mind you, but there is a reality here that must be recognized – the market is getting ahead of itself. Didn’t I just say those words yesterday?  Well, I did and they are true.   Actually, the problem is not so much the market getting ahead of itself. It will do...

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The Market Needs To Catch Up to Itself

As expected, after the head rush from the market’s rise yesterday, the bulls relaxed and the bears came to play today.   U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 ending at a record after the Federal Reserve hinted at a slightly faster pace of interest-rate increases starting next year, but suggested rates in the long run would be lower than it had indicated previously. Hitting...

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Who Cares? Watch For the Signs Along the Way

“Who cares?” I think to myself as I am reading a lengthy article about the latest news in Ukraine this morning. Really, does the market care about this “crisis” that not too long ago sent the market reeling? An acronym that applies here is ADD, or ADHD, as it is now known. It’s Fed decision day again with Janet Yellen set to announce another $10 billion cut from bond purchases, keeping the...

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Money Making Money Is A Strong Allure

As I was reading this morning, I got to thinking about the market (imagine that …). I thought about the reality that at any given moment, you can put two well-placed market analysts in a room, give each the same data, and each will come up with a completely different conclusion as to a) the current state of the market or b) where the market is headed. A recent survey by Bank of America...

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Money Is Moving, Another Good Sign For the Market

Mitchells & Butler, Mitsubishi, Medtronic, Orchid Group, Siemens, San Dusk, Aquila, Mineral Covidien, and Fusion all are mixing it up with mergers and acquisitions. This reality is a good sign for the market, even as Iraq presents the market with yet another geopolitical “crisis.” The question of the day is if geopolitics in Iraq will become the next "crisis" the stock market will have...

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The Market Needs a Big Reason To Crash … Got One?

Eventually, the doomsayers and the hilltop screamers will be right – the market will crash. Periodically, it just does – 1929, 1933, 1987, 2000, and 2008. The reasons are always clear, after the fact, but up to the point the market crashes, the sentiment is often bullish, extremely so. According to the Lindsey Group's Peter Boockvar, bullish sentiment is at levels even higher than they were...

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For The Record …

For the record, bad geopolitics, and that includes open warfare, tick me off. Just when the world settles down from a “crisis,” up pops another and there goes the price of oil, again. Brent crude rose to $110 a barrel on concern geopolitical tension in the Middle East may disrupt supplies. Didn’t we just get past the Ukraine/Russia, natural gas/oil issue in east Europe?  Okay, okay, I’ll...

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Making Money Long and Short Term

This morning, I reread yesterday’s thinking about the market and I noticed a glaring omission. I should have written a corresponding sentence to offset the following. Yet, whenever a positive catalyst appears, the market seems to run with it. The above is true in this current market environment. The market has gone up whenever some positive news appears, as recent record highs attest but,...

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Where Are We Now?

Okay, so yesterday, I wrote that if the Dow crossed the 17,000 barrier today, the market would be off to the races, more or less. Well, unless we see a reversal of sentiment today, it appears the Dow will not cross that barrier. After U.S. gross domestic product contracted in the first quarter for the first time in three years, investors are cautious. Admittedly, so far this year the...

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The Next Leg Up Toward the Future?

First things first this morning, I have two questions. Will the Dow climb above 17,000 tomorrow and will the Dow remain above 17,000? Actually, I have one more question – is this the beginning of the leg up that has long been in waiting? I am sure the hilltop screamers are wringing their hands, wondering if they misread the predictive omens and the celebrity naysayers are swallowing hard,...

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Get On Board, Get Down With This Reality

So, last night, I went to the 8th-grade dance as a card dealer, and it was kick. Watching the future revel and let loose was fun, but something else made me smile as well. The band consisted of 8th grade kids, and they were good. Interestingly, though, they mixed in music from the 60’s and 70s with their own. As well, the dance floor had a distinct disco feel, colored strobe lights and a...

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