Sign inRecent trendfollowing's Commentaries
Reporter Conversation
I was just speaking with a Brazilian reporter who called me from São Paulo. He said, “But isn’t trend following hard?” An interesting question! 1. I would think watching the Dow bounce around 10,000 for 11 years as a buy and holder (hoper) is harder. 2. What ambitious achievements in life are...
If America Wants Jobs, Then Realize the Game Has Changed
Thanks to Ritholtz for the interesting chart of the morning. Proof positive that the world has changed big time. Name one event that could lead to massive new private sector job creation? The only thing I can think of is time travel. No joke. Something truly revolutionary. On the other hand, I...
How Winning Can Mean Losing in Poker and Life
Shout out to Thomas Stridsman for sending me this Time article. An excerpt: You can learn a lot about gambling if you’re willing to analyze 27 million hands of online poker. Don’t have time for that? No worries; sociology doctoral student Kyle Siler of Cornell University has done it for you. His...
Meeting Mikhail Gorbachev: My Journey
An excerpt from my book The Complete TurtleTrader: Taking very little at face value is my modus operandi. In fact, since childhood I’ve challenged the accepted norms regarding access to the truth. Along the way I’ve challenged a number of people who have wanted to keep the curtains closed. In...
TurtleTrader Feedback from Mumbai
Feedback in: I just finished The Complete TurtleTrader and it was great. Being a professional trader myself and having trained traders and managed portfolios, it was a great reflection on what I have been doing. In fact, it helped answer a lot of questions about psychology and what worked in...
Simplistic and Stupid
A well-crafted excerpt from analyst Bert Dohmen caught my eye: [Today] At the low, the DJI was down just about 300 points. Yet, the guests on financial TV continue to hype stocks, based on fundamentals. These are that orders of a certain company are good, that their widgets are great, and that...
Mentor Needed In Times of Uncertainty
Feedback in: Michael, I have the typical “frustrated” trader biography. I was introduced to trading by a scalper. I took a 2 week study course and then used a 6-week practice account, which was very profitable. The trading company that trained me never once taught me about risk-management and...
I Love It When Stocks Melt & People Get Crazy
To watch the financial news today, to see attempts by talking heads at offering investment advice, is pure comedy. I paraphrase a few of my favorite lines caught today: “The markets are down today what should you do?” “We see the markets going lower stay away!” “Greece might default, be...
New Trader Mentor Needed
Feedback in: Michael, I have the typical “frustrated” trader biography. I was introduced to trading by a scalper. I took a 2 week study course and then used a 6-week practice account, which was very profitable. The trading company that trained me never once taught me about risk-management and...
Effectiveness of Trend Following
Feedback in today: Dear Michael, I have been meaning to write to you for quite a long time now, as we have been fans of your books and blog for many, many years. This is a letter to let you know that we have been successful systematic trend followers for more than a decade, and therefore [...]
Presidents Know What Is Up?
Consider an exchange between a questioner and President Bush at a December 17, 2007 press conference: I wanted to ask you [Mr. President] I’m a financial advisor here in Fredericksburg [Virginia], and I wanted to ask you what your thoughts are on the market going forward for 08, and if any of...
Trading Numbers, Not Markets
An excerpt from my book The Complete TurtleTrader: Richard Dennis’s friend Tom Willis had learned long ago from Dennis why price, the philosophical underpinning of Donchian’s rule, was the only true metric to trust. He said, “Everything known is reflected in the price. I could never hope to...
Timeless Trend Trading Wisdom
In the 1954 work ‘New Blueprints for Gains in Stocks and Grains’ William Dunnigan stated: “We think that “forecasting” should be thought of in the light of measuring the direction of today’s trend and then turning to the Law of Inertia (momentum) for assurance that probabilities favor the...
Trading ‘Right’
Trading the right way means not letting your emotions govern your buys and sells like a hyperactive kid cranked out on extra sugar and Red Bull (most of the audience who BELIEVES in Jim Cramer). Trade “right” (hint: trend following) and emotionally unnerving impulses will not govern your day to...
