Sign inRecent trendfollowing's Commentaries
When the Next Crash Happens Will You Be Ready? Trend Following Was Born Ready
There will be another fall 2008. Guaranteed. When? Who knows. But it will come. And there is only ONE strategy capable of making money when the unpredictable hits the fan. There is only one strategy that has strong historical performance during crisis periods: Trend following. That’s it. However,...
With Press Like This It Feels Like 1999
From the AP today: “Despite the onslaught of negative economic news this summer, they have barely reduced their estimates. The current forecast for the S&P 500 is an increase of 46 percent this year, then 14 percent on top of that in 2011. Such jumps would mean profits rising above their all-time...
Millburn Monthly Comment
Millburn Ridgefield has been a trend follower since the 1970s. Their July 2010 newsletter (PDF). That doesn’t tell you too much if you are looking for ’secrets’, but it sure is different than CNBC banter.
Napkin Math
From Carl Richards, a napkin illustration: That gap is explained by this and if you want to avoid that gap and have a chance, trend following is it.
Get a Plan and Stop Complaining
From Barrons today: “…individual investors feel, as Alan Newman of Crosscurrents puts it, “the deck is stacked, the game is rigged against them.” And they feel that way because it is. As Alan laments, “The public has gotten the shaft from Wall Street, from the SEC, from short-oriented hedge funds...
Trend Following Blogging v. Trend Following Books
I do both: write books and blog. However, let’s face it blogging is candy and books are steak. No one can make a reasoned investment case in one blog post alone, but you can’t believe how many ask me to do so (lazy they are as Yoda would say). Oh sure I can talk bullet [...]
Yes, There Was Fraud, But There Was Also Major Greed
Does the little guy who thought he could get rich overnight, only to be burned, ever get any blame? He wants to correct the system, but the system also includes human beings who want to be rich fast. How does that get fixed? It doesn’t.
Social Security Is Broke (Except for People Who Drink Kool-Aid)
From ‘Meet the Press’ today: Gov. Granholm: “If you care, if you care about democracy and what the everyday citizen believes, and you want to empower them, and they don’t want the Social Security system to be dismantled and they don’t want the Medicare system to be dismantled, because you’re pick...
You Know Why They Are Leaving? They Are Scared Sh**less!
From The New York Times today: “Investors withdrew a staggering $33.12 billion from domestic stock market mutual funds in the first seven months of this year, according to the Investment Company Institute, the mutual fund industry trade group. Now many are choosing investments they deem safer, li...
Politicians Are the Not Solution, Nor the Cause
Some history is in order for all those who like to reward and blame politicians. Go back to the first war in Iraq. President Bush (the Older) had a 89% approval rating on February 28, 1991. Then the economy tanked. His fault? No. Real estate crashed in the early 1990s. What happened next? Preside...
Stephen Bernard, AP Business Writer: Propaganda
Stephen Bernard, AP Business Writer, writes today: “NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks tumbled Thursday after two disappointing economic reports renewed investors’ concerns about the pace of a recovery. The Dow Jones industrial average fell about 165 points in afternoon trading. Broader indexes also fell by ...
Trend Followers Don’t Chase IPOs Out of the Gate
Altucher gives the fundamental view why not to chase GM’s IPO, but smart trend followers won’t chase it either:
Podcasts: A Restart
Three new podcasts: Aug 17: MP3 1 Aug 16: MP3 2 Jul 14: MP3 3 I took a long break, but starting up the podcasts again. Hit me with questions via email if you want me to cover a subject.
Barbie Does Economics!
From Montier: “The sheer hubris of many in the economics profession never ceases to amaze me. Take for instance a recent paper by Kartik Athreya of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond entitled ‘Economics is Hard. Don’t let Bloggers Tell You Otherwise’. In a move that is eerily reminiscent of the...
