JimWyckoff's Commentaries

Grain Commentary

by JimWyckoff on Jul 6, 2009
November soybeans on Thursday closed lower and near mid-range. Some profit-taking pressure ahead of the long weekend was featured. The key "outside markets" were decidedly bearish for soybean futures Thursday, as the stock indexes were solidly lower, crude oil prices were sharply lower and the U.S. dollar was stronger. The next upside price objective for the bean bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $10.57 a bushel. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $9.43 1/2 a bushel. First resistance for November soybeans is seen at last week's high of $10.29 1/2 and then at $10.50. First support is seen at $10.00 and then at Thursday's low of $9.88.
$15.57 1/2 --- the contract high
$9.97 3/4 ---- 10-day moving average
$10.25 ------- 20-day moving average
$10.25 1/4 --- 40-day moving average
$6.70 -------- the contract low
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Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

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December soybean meal on Thursday closed weaker and near mid-range. Bulls have repaired recent chart damage and have regained upside momentum. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $330.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at this week's low of $291.50. First resistance comes in at Thursday's high of $321.90 and then at last week's high of $323.50. First support is seen at $315.00 and then at $310.00.
$399.00 --- contract high
$308.70 --- 10-day moving average
$316.40 --- 20-day moving average
$311.40 --- 40-day moving average
$203.30 --- the contract low
December soybean oil on Thursday closed lower and near the session low. Spreaders were selling bean oil and buying meal Thursday. The key "outside markets" were decidedly bearish for bean oil futures Thursday, as the stock indexes were solidly lower, crude oil prices were sharply lower and the U.S. dollar was stronger. Prices are still in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 38.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of 35.34 cents. First resistance is seen at Thursday's high of 36.95 cents and then at 37.50 cents. First support is seen at Thursday's low of 35.88
cents and then at this week's low of 35.34 cents.
70.00 --- the contract high
36.73 --- 10-day moving average
37.64 --- 20-day moving average
38.66 --- 40-day moving average
30.00 --- the contract low
December corn on Thursday closed lower, near the session low, hit another fresh six-month low and closed at a bearish weekly low close. The key "outside markets" were decidedly bearish for corn futures Thursday, as the stock indexes were solidly lower, crude oil prices were sharply lower and the U.S. dollar was stronger. The market is still feeling the bearish impact of a big jump in U.S. planted corn acres, reported by USDA last week. The corn market is presently short-term oversold and due for at least a decent corrective bounce soon. The bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above major psychological resistance at $4.00 a bushel. The next downside price objective for the bears is to push and close prices below strong technical support at the contract low of $3.49 1/4 a bushel. First resistance for December corn is seen at Friday's high of $3.69 3/4 and then at $3.75. First support is seen at Friday's low of $3.56 3/4 and then at $3.50.
$7.07 -------- the contract high
$3.87 3/4 --- 10-day moving average
$4.14 3/4 --- 20-day moving average
$4.33 1/2 --- 40-day moving average
$3.04 -------- the contract low
December Chicago wheat on Thursday closed lower, nearer the session low closed at a fresh 6.5-month low close and at a bearish weekly low close. Prices are in a steep four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Wheat bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.42. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close July futures prices above solid technical resistance at $6.00 a bushel. First resistance is seen at Thursday's high of $5.67 3/4 and then at 5.75. First support
lies at Thursday's low of $5.54 1/2 and then at last week's low of $5.50.
$11.50 1/2 --- the contract high
$5.78 3/4 --- 10-day moving average
$6.07 1/2 --- 20-day moving average
$6.34 1/4 --- 40-day moving average
$4.91 -------- the contract low
December KCBT wheat on Thursday closed lower, near the session low, produced a fresh four-month low closed at a bearish weekly low close. Bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bulls' next upside price objective is pushing prices above solid technical resistance at $6.20. The bears' next downside objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of $5.73 1/2. First resistance is seen at Thursday's high of $5.90 and then at $6.00. First support is seen at Thursday's and last week's low of
$5.80 and then at $5.75.
$11.35 ------ the contract high
$6.13 3/4 --- 10-day moving average
$6.41 1/4 --- 20-day moving average
$6.63 ------- 40-day moving average
$4.60 -------- the contract low
Tags:
futures, corn, soybeans, wheat

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