JimWyckoff's Commentaries
Softs Commentary
October sugar closed down 10 points at 17.65 cents yesterday. Prices closed near the session low yesterday on mild profit-taking pressure. Prices hit a fresh three-week high early on. The key "outside markets" turned mildly bearish for sugar in late trading yesterday, as crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes sold off modestly, while the U.S. dollar rebounded from its lower levels seen earlier in the session. The sugar bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a nine-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above technical resistance at the contract high of 18.09 cents. Bears' next downside price objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at the July low of 16.75 cents. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of 17.95 cents and then at 18.09 cents. First support is seen at yesterday's low of 17.61 cents and then at 17.50 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0
Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software
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September coffee closed down 40 points at 121.90 cents yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session low yesterday after hitting a fresh five-week high early on. The key "outside markets" turned mildly bearish for coffee in late trading yesterday, as crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes sold off modestly, while the U.S. dollar rebounded from its lower levels seen earlier in the session. Bulls still have some upside technical momentum after Monday's big gains. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. Coffee bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 127.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 117.50 cents a pound. First support is seen at 121.00 cents and then at 120.00. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of 123.50 cents and then at 125.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0
September cocoa closed down $2 at $2,866 yesterday. Prices closed near mid-range. The key "outside markets" turned mildly bearish for cocoa in late trading yesterday, as crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes sold off modestly, while the U.S. dollar rebounded from its lower levels seen earlier in the session. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of $2,899. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,650. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $2,889 and then at $2,899. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $2,837 and then at $2,800.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.
December cotton closed down 291 points at 61.95 cents yesterday. Prices closed near the session low after hitting a fresh nine-month high yesterday. Prices also scored a big and bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart. Chart damage was inflicted yesterday and good follow-through selling on Wednesday would produce more chart damage to suggest a market top is in place. The key "outside markets" turned mildly bearish for cotton in late trading yesterday, as crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes sold off modestly, while the U.S. dollar rebounded from its lower levels seen earlier in the session. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to produce a close solid technical support at 60.00 cents. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at yesterday's high of 64.98 cents. First resistance is seen at 62.50 cents and then at 63.00 cents. First support is seen at 61.50 cents and then at 61.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.
September orange juice closed down 160 points at $1.0215 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high and were pressured on profit taking from recent strong gains. The key "outside markets" turned mildly bearish for FCOJ in late trading yesterday, as crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes sold off modestly, while the U.S. dollar rebounded from its lower levels seen earlier in the session. FCOJ bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The next downside technical objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $.9800. The next upside price objective for the OJ bulls is pushing prices above solid technical resistance at $1.1000. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $1.0300 and then at last week's high of $1.0485 and then at $1.0600. First support is seen at $1.0100 and then at yesterday's low of $1.0030.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.
September lumber futures closed up $2.00 at $189.00 yesterday. Prices closed near mid-range yesterday on more short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a steep four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside technical objective for the lumber bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $200.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at the March low of $174.00. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $192.00 and then at $195.00. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $186.00 and then at $184.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.
Tags: futures | coffee | cocoa | sugar | cotton | orange-juice | lumber