JimWyckoff's Commentaries

Jul 29 2009

Softs

October sugar closed up 8 points at 18.53 cents yesterday. Prices closed near the session high yesterday and did match the fresh contract and multi-year high set on Monday. The sugar bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The fact that sugar held gains yesterday despite bearish "outside markets" is another bullish clue for the sugar market. The lack of high volatility as the market hits new contract highs is bullish and suggests there is more room on the upside in the near term. Prices are still in a nine-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above technical resistance at 19.00 cents. Bears' next downside price objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 17.50 cents. First resistance is seen at yesterday's contract high of 18.57 cents and then at 18.75 cents. First support is seen at18.25 cents and then at yesterday's low of 18.08 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

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September coffee closed down 145 points at 123.00 cents yesterday. Prices closed near mid-range yesterday after hitting a fresh six-week high early on. Prices yesterday also scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart. The key "outside markets" were bearish for coffee yesterday--lower crude oil and stock index prices and a firmer U.S. dollar. Bulls and bears are back on a level near-term technical playing field. Coffee bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 130.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of 116.35 cents a pound. First support is seen at yesterday's low of 120.30 cents and then at 118.50 cents. First resistance is seen at
125.00 cents and then at yesterday's high of 126.30 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

September cocoa closed up $12 at $2,882 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session low. Buying interest was limited by the key "outside markets" being bearish for cocoa yesterday--lower crude oil and stock index prices and a firmer U.S. dollar. Cocoa bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the August 2008 high of $2,973. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $2,729. First resistance is seen at $2,900 and then at yesterday's high of $2,935. First support is seen at this week's low of $2,847 and then at $2,800.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

December cotton closed down 41 points at 59.12 cents yesterday. Prices closed nearer the sessoin low yesterday and closed at a fresh four-week low close. There was not good follow-through buying yesterday and a bullish selling exhaustion tail on the daily bar chart was not confirmed. The key "outside markets" were bearish for cotton yesterday--lower crude oil and stock index prices and a firmer U.S. dollar. The cotton bears have the near-term technical advantage. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to produce a close solid technical support at this week's low of 57.99 cents. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 62.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 60.00 cents and then at yesterday's high of 60.28 cents. First support is seen at yesterday's low of 58.88 cents and then at 58.50 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

September orange juice closed down 115 points at $.9495 yesterday in quieter trading. Prices closed nearer the session low yesterday. Some chart damage has occurred recently. A bearish pennant pattern has formed on the daily chart. FCOJ bulls do still have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside technical objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $.9200. The next upside price objective for the OJ bulls is pushing prices above major psychological resistance at $1.0000. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $.9630 and then at $.9750. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $.9445 and then at last week's low of $.9395.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

September lumber futures closed up the $10.00 limit at $207.00 yesterday. Prices were supported on short covering and bargain-hunting buying interest. Bulls have quickly gained fresh upside near-term technical momentum to firmly suggest a major market low is in place. The next upside technical objective for the lumber bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $220.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at $198.00. First resistance is seen at $210.00 and then at $215.00. First support is seen at $205.00 and then at yesterday's low of $213.10.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.



Tags: futures | coffee | cocoa | sugar | cotton | orange-juice | lumber
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