On Demand

Chopping Masks Deteriorating Technicals

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U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below its lows of the previous 3 weeks and fell below its 50-day SMA on 3/23/12, which looks bearish for the short-term. UUP remains above its 200-day SMA, however, and the 50-day SMA has remained consistently above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11.

Industrial Stock Sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months and fell further below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,397.11) fell below its lows of the previous 7 trading days intraday on 3/23/12 before reversing to close higher by 0.31%. SPX has lost much of its former upside price momentum.

RSI(14) based on SPX fell below its levels of the previous 9 trading days on 3/22/12, thereby demonstrating a bearish price momentum divergence.

MACD based on SPX fell again. MACD turned down on 3/21/12 after failing to reach its high of February 9, 2012, which appears to have been the momentum peak for the rally.

The cumulative daily NYSE A-D Line has been showing a bearish divergence compared to SPX price since Tuesday, 3/13/12. Momentum of the A-D Line shows bearish divergence compared to the A-D Line itself.

The Dow Theory may have given an early warning by diverging after 2/3/12, as the Transports turned corrective and failed to confirm higher highs by the Industrials.

It has been an exceptional year so far, with no downside pullbacks of as much as 3% in more than 3 months, since 12/19/12, based on SPX close prices. It is extremely unlikely that stocks can continue to go up like this much longer, however, without a significant downside correction. Odds are stocks will experience the usual ups and downs this year. After large price run ups, stocks become more vulnerable to sudden reversals. Therefore, Potential Reward relative to potential Risk appears unattractive for stocks.
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world's largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.

But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Available by subscription only (click here).
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Sentiment for Contrary Thinking

Recent sentiment data, detailed below, indicates alarming degrees of optimism and bullish complacency. When the majority of investors has been bullish for some time, we can assume that they are already fully invested in the market. Once everyone who is going to buy has already bought, stocks are vulnerable to a downside shakeout. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but market mood always reverts to the mean.

ABC News reported on 2/21/12 that 10 out of 10 investment strategists at large firms were bullish. http://abcnews.go.com/watch/world-news-with-diane-sawyer/SH5585921/VD55173505/world-news-221-dow-jones-climbs-past-13000

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed that the Commercials (giant corporations with deep pockets) have been buying "risk off" defensive futures contracts, specifically, the U.S. dollar and the ten-year Treasury note. On the other side, trend-following Speculators have been buying "risk on" aggressively bullish contracts, setting a new all-time net-long record in the Nasdaq futures. The unusually large size of Speculators' positions implies a weak-handed, top-heavy stock market.

AAII Sentiment: There were 51.64% Bulls and 20.19% Bears, according to the AAII weekly survey reported on 2/9/12. This was the highest level of bullish sentiment in more than a year, since 52.34% Bulls on 1/13/11.

Investors Intelligence Sentiment: There were 54.8% Bulls versus 25.8% Bears, according to the Investors Intelligence weekly survey of stock market newsletter advisors reported on 2/15/11. This was the highest level of bullish sentiment since the stock market top in May, 2011.

Investment Newsletters recently were 75% bullish, the highest since near the major top in year 2000, according to Hulbert Digest.

Market Vane's Bullish Consensus among Advisors and Newsletters rose to 65% Bulls--the same extreme level of optimism recorded at the February 2011 top in the stock market.

Short Selling ETFs were trading the lowest volume since the market top in April, 2011, according to Frank D. Gretz of Wellington Shields & Co.

Corporate insiders have been selling their companies' stock at the heaviest rate since the market peak in April 2011, according to Mark Hulbert at MarketWatch. Insiders sold 656 shares for each 100 shares they bought, according to Argus Research Vickers Weekly Insider Report. That was a big change in insider behavior from 81 shares sold for each 100 shares bought in November. Since corporate insiders (officers, directors, and largest shareholders) know so much more about their companies than the public can possibly know, it is bearish when insiders sell at such a heavy pace.

NYSE short interest collapsed from a high peak of 16.1 billion shares sold short last September, which coincided with the stock market lows, to 12.5 billion shares sold short in February, which was the lowest level since last April, at the market top. Short interest represents a pool of potential demand for stocks, since short sellers eventually must buy back the shares they borrowed. That pool of demand has been depleted.

VIX Fear Index broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/16/12, hitting 13.66 intraday, its lowest level since 6/20/07. VIX is down from a peak of 48.00 on 8/8/11: such a large drop indicated a shift away from fear and toward bullish complacency. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1414.00, high of 3/19/2012

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1386.87, low of 3/23/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1378.04, high of 2/29/2012
1376.55, Fibonacci 100.0% projection 10/11 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1337.35, low of 2/10/2012
1300.49, low of 1/30/2012
1277.58, low of 1/13/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1263.77, 200-day SMA
1257.46, low of 12/30/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1255.22, high of 12/22/2011
1248.64, low of 12/29/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1231.04, high of 12/16/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/11
1215.20, low of 12/16/11
1209.47, low of 12/14/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/11
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) fell below the lows of the previous 7 months on 3/19/12, which was bearish. Still, TLT is technically neutral according to the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages: TLT remains below its 50-day SMA but above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 113.89, 119.14, 120.91, 121.64, 121.76, 124.02 and 125.03.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) fell below the lows of the previous 5 months on 3/20/12, which was bearish. Still, IEF is technically neutral according to the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages: IEF remains below its 50-day SMA but above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 103.87, 105.80, 106.49 and 106.66.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) is neutral. JNK/LQD remains above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, but the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/20/11. That 50-200 SMA spread has been narrowing, however.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned bullish on 3/14/12 when the 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA. TIP/IEF remains above both its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. The market recognizes that the Fed, ECB, and other global monetary authorities are willing to print money out of thin air as necessary in order to support the financial system.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell below its lows of the previous 3 weeks and fell below its 50-day SMA on 3/23/12, which looks bearish for the short-term. UUP remains above its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained consistently above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.20, 22.47, 22.85, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) remains technically bearish below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price appears to be in a trading range for the short term between 39.70 and 41.38. Longer term, USO remains technically bullish according to 50-day and 200-day SMAs, positioned above both SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 1/3/12. Support 39.70, 38.51, 36.67, 35.73, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 10-weeks and fell further below both its 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 3/22/12. GLD has been correcting and consolidating since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 2/11/09. Support: 158.13, 156.19, 154.55, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 162.30, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 3 years on 3/22/12, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below its lows of the previous 9-weeks and fell further below both its 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 3/22/12. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 30.21, 28.63, 27.83, 25.65, and 24.44. Resistance: 32.14, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 7 weeks on 3/22/12. SLV/GLD crossed below its 50-day SMA on 3/22/12, remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below the lows of the previous 10 trading days and closed below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 3/22/12. JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and recently has been lagging the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that "Dr. Copper" is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this underperformance may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

1.03% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.59% , TMW , Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
0.75% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
3.78% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
0.73% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
1.83% , KR , KROGER
3.69% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
1.17% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
1.57% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
0.91% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
0.79% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
0.93% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.89% , VFH , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.53% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
1.46% , DOV , DOVER
2.18% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
1.31% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.41% , IYY , LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
2.27% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
0.56% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
1.37% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.37% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
0.77% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
3.42% , MDP , MEREDITH
2.44% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
2.69% , TXT , TEXTRON
0.35% , VHT , Health Care VIPERs, VHT
0.70% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
0.10% , IWS , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.79% , BC , BRUNSWICK
2.01% , FLR , FLUOR
0.86% , MO , ALTRIA, MO
1.18% , PX , PRAXAIR

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

-8.45% , KBH , KB HOME
-3.39% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
-1.30% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
-2.95% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
-2.63% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
-3.20% , DELL , DELL
-1.00% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-3.56% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
-0.59% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
-1.76% , DRI , DARDEN REST
-0.68% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
-0.47% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.94% , AET , AETNA
-3.22% , NKE , NIKE STK B
-0.73% , RAI , Reynolds American
-1.63% , COH , COACH
-0.93% , LEG , LEGGETT & PLATT
-1.34% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-0.66% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
-0.51% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
-1.16% , MAS , MASCO
-0.96% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
-0.91% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
-1.34% , VFC , VF
-0.64% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
-1.41% , EBAY , EBAY
-1.04% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
-0.69% , LOW , LOWES
-0.95% , GPC , GENUINE PARTS
-0.93% , SPLS , STAPLES
-0.26% , LNCR , Lincare Holdings Inc
-0.28% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-0.27% , K , KELLOGG
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

2.29% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.69% Russia MV, RSX
1.63% India PS, PIN
1.53% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.50% Sweden Index, EWD
1.41% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.40% Australia Index, EWA
1.37% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.31% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.27% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.23% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.19% Singapore Index, EWS
1.17% Energy DJ, IYE
1.11% Energy Global, IXC
1.10% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.09% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.09% Germany Index, EWG
1.07% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.07% Materials SPDR, XLB
1.06% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.05% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.03% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.02% Microcap Russell, IWC
1.00% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.97% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.95% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.94% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.93% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.93% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.92% Canada Index, EWC
0.91% Water Resources, PHO
0.91% France Index, EWQ
0.91% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.89% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.89% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.87% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.86% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.84% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.83% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.83% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.83% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.81% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.80% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.79% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.76% European VIPERs, VGK
0.75% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.74% Austria Index, EWO
0.74% Belgium Index, EWK
0.73% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.73% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.73% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.72% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.70% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.70% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.70% EAFE Index, EFA
0.70% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.67% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.65% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.64% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.62% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.62% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.61% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.61% South Korea Index, EWY
0.59% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.56% Networking, IGN
0.54% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.54% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.53% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.53% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.52% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.52% South Africa Index, EZA
0.51% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.51% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.50% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.49% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.47% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.45% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.42% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.42% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.41% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.41% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.40% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.40% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.40% Mexico Index, EWW
0.37% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.36% Global 100, IOO
0.36% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.34% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.34% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.33% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.32% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.32% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.30% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.29% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.28% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.28% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.26% Dividend International, PID
0.25% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.24% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.23% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.22% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.20% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.20% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.18% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.17% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.16% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.14% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.14% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.14% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.13% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.11% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.11% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.10% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.09% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.08% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.07% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.07% China 25 iS, FXI
0.06% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.05% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.04% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.04% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.03% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.03% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.00% Japan Index, EWJ
0.00% Italy Index, EWI
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.02% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.03% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.05% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.06% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.06% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.21% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.22% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.23% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.30% Spain Index, EWP
-0.33% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.33% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.47% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB

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About the Author

Robert W. Colby, CMT, is Chairman and Chief Investment Strategist at Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc., a New York Registered Investment Advisory firm. His primary objective is to outperform the S&P 500 Index over the long term while taking much less risk by using actively adaptive strategies to effectively manage Rewards and Risks.  His unique Bear Market Protection Systems protect clients when stock prices fall persistently in bearish market trends. Robert is the author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition, McGraw-Hill, 2003, which has become the standard reference for indicator and trading systems design. In his 44 years on Wall Street, Robert has worked as a portfolio manager, a research consultant to institutional and private investors and traders, proprietary trader, technical analyst, and fundamental analyst.  For a free trial to his extensive weekly analytical report, see:

http://www.colbyassetmanagement.com/

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