Sign intimord's Commentaries
The Ord Oracle Daily Commentary
Above is the 10 min. chart of the SPY. The first of June the SPY broke above the 93 level (and noted at the time of the 6/1 breakout that it was a false break because volume did not confirm) but failed to hold that high and fell below 93 and created a bearish “Upthrust”. The SPY could be forming a bearish Head and Shoulders top and the Right Shoulder is being developed now. A lot of the time there is symmetry in time in that if the left shoulder took three weeks the Right shoulder should also. The Left shoulder did take three weeks and therefore the right shoulder may take to 7/2 to complete (give a take a day or so). Normally volume drops as a holiday approaches as traders take off early for the Holiday. Ideally we would like to see the SPY hold up into Thursday (Market closed on Friday for July 4 holiday) as volume will most likely drop and when volume drops on a rally it usually ends the rally phase. A Neckline break near 89 with a Sign of Strength would confirm this pattern and give a downside target to 82 and a 50% retracement of the rally from the March low would give a target to the 81 level. We are short the SPX at 883.92.
Above is the Weekly chart of the SPX which is an intermediate term view. In bear markets the weekly RSI (top window) normally stays below 50 and the RSI is near the 50 range now. The Weekly Stochastics stays above “0” in bull market and stays below “0” in bear markets. Current the weekly MACD is “0” and at resistance. Fourth window from bottom is the weekly Slow Stochastics and it stays above 50 in bull market and below 50 in bear markets. Recently the weekly Slow Stochastics has just turned down implying downtrend has started. Third window from bottom is the weekly McClellan Oscillator and it just turned down imply SPX is in a downtrend. Weekly CCI has turned down (second window form bottom). Bottom window is the weekly Full Stochastics and it also has turned down. These weekly indicators suggest an intermediate term decline has started.
Above chart courtesy of www.ETFinvestmentoutlook.com. We are very bullish on the gold stocks for longer term and are expecting all gold stock sectors (GDX, XAU, HUI, XGD.TO) to hit new highs later this year or early next year. Above is GDX with its McClellan Oscillator and Summation index. Over the last month the McClellan Oscillator has fallen hard and shows most gold stocks are declining. A couple of weeks ago the McClellan Oscillator gave a sell signal by crossing the 20 EMA and remains on a sell signal to date. In general we expect the GDX to move lower. A possible area where support and a bottom may form is near the 30 range on GDX. We will see what happens if and when GDX gets there. We are expecting GDX to follow the SPX to the downside and both indexes to bottom together. A possible low may form in GDX around August. Physical Gold may hold up well and we will hold our position in GLD. Long GLD at 89 on 4/24/09. Long KRY at 1.82 on 2/5/08. We are long PLM at 2.77 on 1/22/08. Holding CDE (average long at 2.77 (doubled our position on 9/12/08 at 1.46, Sold 5/13/09 at 1.55=6% gain). Bought NXG at 3.26 on 6/4/07. We doubled our positions in KGC on (7/30/04) at 5.26 and we now have average price at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit http://www.ord-oracle.com
Tags:stocks, tim-ord, ord-oracle
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