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Softs Market Commentary

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July sugar closed up 82 points at 19.88 cents yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high on heavy short covering and bargain hunting. The key "outside markets" were bullish for the sugar market yesterday, as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were higher. Sugar bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a 10-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at 20.50 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 18.00 cents. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of 20.08 cents and then at 20.50 cents. First support is seen at 19.50 cents and then at 19.25 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

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Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software

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July coffee closed down 60 points at 155.60 cents. Prices closed near the session low again yesterday and closed at another fresh 21-month low close. The key "outside markets" were bullish for the coffee market yesterday, as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were higher. Yet, coffee bulls could get no traction from it, which is another bearish clue. Coffee prices are in an 8.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 170.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 150.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 160.00 cents and then at 162.50 cents. First support is seen at this week's low of 154.65 cents and then at 152.50 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

July cocoa closed up $28 at $2,191 a ton. Prices closed nearer the session high again yesterday and saw more short covering and bargain hunting. Cocoa bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,300. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $2,026. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $2,220 and then at $2,250. First support is seen at $2,175 and then at $2,146.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

July cotton closed up 300 points at 69.89 cents yesterday. Prices closed near the session high yesterday and saw short covering in a bear market. The key "outside markets" were bullish for the cotton market yesterday, as the U.S. dollar index was lower and crude oil prices were higher. The cotton bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a four-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. There are no early clues of a market low being close at hand. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 72.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 65.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 70.00 cents and then at 71.00 cents. First support is seen at 68.50 cents and then at yesterday's low of 67.10 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

July orange juice closed up 345 points at $1.1825 yesterday. Prices closed near the session high yesterday and hit a fresh three-week high. FCOJ bears still have the overall near- term technical advantage. However, a four-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at $1.2500. The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $1.0800. First resistance is seen at $1.2000 and then at $1.2250. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $1.1480 and then at $1.1250.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

July lumber futures closed up $4.60 at $284.30 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the May low of $276.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of $294.00. First resistance is seen at $285.00 and then at $287.00. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $283.00 and then at $282.00.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

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About the Author

JimWyckoff

Jim Wyckoff has been involved with the stock, financial and futures markets for more than 20 years. He was born and raised in Iowa, where he still resides.

Wyckoff became a financial journalist with Futures World News for many years, cutting his teeth as a reporter on the futures trading floors in Chicago and New York, where he covered every futures market traded in the United States at one time or another.

Not long after he began his career in financial journalism, he began studying technical analysis. By studying chart patterns and other technical indicators, he realized this approach to analyzing and trading markets could level the playing field between “professional insiders” in the markets and individual traders.

His extensive studies of technical analysis and knowledge of markets led to several positions, including chief technical analyst at several well-known companies. He says his mission is not just to generate profits for traders but to also provide them with educational and insightful information because, in the fascinating business of trading, one never stops learning.

Wyckoff received a Bachelor of Science degree at Iowa State University, graduating in 1984 with a major in journalism and a minor in economics. He and his wife have two children, a son in high school and a daughter in college.

When he’s not analyzing markets and educating traders, Wyckoff says he loves adventures, from driving a Jeep across the highest mountain pass in the continental United States to extreme winter camping in the Boundary Waters to hiking in the jungles of South America.

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