NYMEX March natural gas futures have been contained within a $3.243 to $3.395 relatively tight balance bracket over the last six days. When a volatile market such as natural gas is contained to a relatively tight range for a period of time, a significant move usually follows when the market finally breaks from the balance bracket (see Market Profile graphic). It is possible that the market remain within balance for several more days, but it is best to be prepared for when the market does finally breakout. Additionally, there are two gaps, one on each end of the six day balance.
If the market trades above the $3.395 balance bracket, it may attempt to fill the $3.395 to $3.435 gap. Acceptance above that gap and the market may test the $3.495 reference.
If the market trades below the $3.243 six day balance low, it may attempt to fill the $3.224 to $3.243 gap. Acceptance below the gap and the downside references to watch are $3.144 and $3.105.
If the market trades outside the 6 day balance and FAILS, a rotation to the opposite end of the 6 day balance would be the most likely scenario.
Be patient in entering a trade as it is better to be a little late then a little early.
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