Monday, November 2--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading are higher crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Traders in most markets continue to keep a close eye on the key "outside markets"--crude oil, the U.S. stock indexes and the U.S. dollar. There are growing ideas among some analysts that the greenback is near a major bottom against the other currencies. However, there are no strong, early technical clues to suggest the downtrend in the U.S. dollar index is close to ending.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today, on a corrective bounce from Friday's losses. Prices are presently trending lower from the October highs.   

December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,027.20 and then at the October low of 1,012.10. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,050.00 and then at Friday's high of 1,062.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels.

Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,045.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:-------------  1,041.70
1st Support:-------- 1,020.85
2nd Support:-------- 1,008.70
1st Resistance:----- 1,053.85
2nd Resistance:----- 1,074.70

December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,654.25 and then at 1,650.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,673.00 and then at 1,680.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels.

Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,701.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:

Pivot:------------ 1,678.85
1st Support:------ 1,645.70
2nd Support:------ 1,625.85
1st Resistance:--- 1,698.70
2nd Resistance:--- 1,731.85

December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 9,664 and then more stops just below support at 9,637. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 9,750 and then at 9,800. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 9,631

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:

Pivot:------------ 9,737
1st Support:------ 9,564
2nd Support:------ 9,464
1st Resistance:--- 9,837
2nd Resistance:--- 10,010

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are slightly lower in early trading today. Trading has turned choppy recently. Bulls have more work to do to negate the price downtrends in place on the daily bar charts.December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119 25/32 and then at 119 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 120 14/32 and then at 121 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.

Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 119 3/32

December U.S. T-Bonds

137 23/32--lifetime high
123 25/32--Previous Month's high
121 12/32--second pivot point resistance
120 25/32--first pivot point resistance
120 9/32--previous day's high
120 5/32--previous day's close
119 29/32--18-day moving average
119 21/32--pivot point
119 14/32--9-day moving average
119 14/32--4-day moving average
119 2/32--first pivot point support
118 18/32--previous day's low
118 6/32--100-day moving average
117 30/32--second pivot point support
117 25/32--previous month's low
110 --lifetime low

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 118.26.0 and then at 119.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 118.12.0 and then at 118.00.0.

Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118.14.0

December U.S. T-Notes

125 28/32--lifetime high
119 29/32--previous month's high
119 11/32--second pivot point resistance
118 31/32--first pivot point resistance
118 22/32--previous day's high
118 19/32--previous day's close
118 10/32--pivot point
118 8/32--18-day moving average
118 4/32--4-day moving average
117 31/32--9-day moving average
117 30/32--first pivot point support
117 21/32--previous day's low
117 9/32--second pivot point support
116 28/32--previous month's low
116 14/32--100-day moving average
107 3/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The December U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 76.55 and then at last week's high of 76.73. Shorter-term support is seen at 76.00 and then at 75.75. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 76.10.

Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

The December Euro is firmer in early electronic trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4700 and then at last week's low of 1.4681. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4800 and then at 1.4858. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4829.

Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

GOLD

Gold is higher in early dealings today, amid a weaker U.S. dollar index. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,059.20 and then at $1,065.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $1,050.00 and then at the overnight low of $1,042.20. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,055.00.

Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $78.25 and then just above resistance at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $77.00 and then more sell stops just below support at the overnight low of $76.56. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $78.59.

Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were mixed in overnight trading. There was good harvest progress in the harvesting of corn and soybeans in the U.S. Corn Belt over the weekend, and that's a bearish fundamental for the grains. However, the grains will continue to more closely monitor the key "outside markets:" crude oil, the U.S. dollar and the U.S. stock indexes. Those markets are in a bullish posture for the grains today, as the dollar is slightly lower, stock indexes slightly higher and crude oil is firmer.