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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Tuesday
Tuesday, November 3--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading are higher gold prices and a stronger U.S. dollar.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
It's rare to see gold futures prices solidly higher while at the same time the U.S. dollar index is also solidly higher. Usually, these two markets trade in a distinct inverse relationship. Today's strength in gold and the dollar index suggests gold will soon establish a fresh all-time record high price.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are lower in early morning trading today. Prices are presently trending lower from the October highs and the bulls are fading. December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,026.70 and then at the October low of 1,012.10. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,043.50 and then at Monday's high of 1,049.50. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,045.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 1,038.30
1st Support:-------- 1,027.05
2nd Support:-------- 1,015.00
1st Resistance:----- 1,050.35
2nd Resistance:----- 1,061.60
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the October low of 1,649.75 and then at 1,640.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,673.00 and then at Monday's high of 1,688.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,664.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,669.00
1st Support:------ 1,650.00
2nd Support:------ 1,631.00
1st Resistance:--- 1,688.00
2nd Resistance:--- 1,707.00
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday's low of 9,635 and then more stops just below support at 9,600. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 9,700 and then at 9,750. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 9,635
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 9,727
1st Support:------ 9,643
2nd Support:------ 9,552
1st Resistance:--- 9,818
2nd Resistance:--- 9,902
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are firmer in early trading today. Trading has turned choppy recently. Bulls still have some work to do to negate the price downtrends in place on the daily bar charts.December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119 22/32 and then at Monday's low of 119 17/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 120 15/32 and then at 121 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 119 13/32
December U.S. T-Bonds
137 23/32--lifetime high
123 25/32--Previous Month's high
120 27/32--second pivot point resistance
120 14/32--previous day's high
120 10/32--first pivot point resistance
119 30/32--pivot point
119 26/32--previous day's close
119 23/32--18-day moving average
119 20/32--4-day moving average
119 17/32--previous day's low
119 13/32--first pivot point support
119 11/32--9-day moving average
119 1/32--second pivot point support
118 8/32--100-day moving average
117 25/32--previous month's low
110 --lifetime low
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 118.28.5 and then at 119.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 118.12.5 and then at 118.00.0.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118.14.0
December U.S. T-Notes
125 28/32--lifetime high
119 29/32--previous month's high
119 1/32--second pivot point resistance
118 26/32--previous day's high
118 24/32--first pivot point resistance
118 16/32--pivot point
118 14/32--previous day's close
118 9/32--previous day's low
118 8/32--4-day moving average
118 7/32--first pivot point support
118 6/32--18-day moving average
117 31/32--second pivot point support
117 31/32--9-day moving average
116 28/32--previous month's low
116 16/32--100-day moving average
107 3/32--lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today. Prices hit a fresh four-week high overnight. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 77.00 and then at the overnight high of 77.50. Shorter-term support is seen at 76.50 and then at the overnight low of 76.22. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 76.72.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The December Euro is lower in early electronic trading. Prices hit a fresh four-week low overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4624 and then at 1.4600. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4700 and then at 1.4750. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4696.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is higher in early dealings today, despite a stronger U.S. dollar index. This is a bullish clue for gold. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,066.90 and then at $1,069.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $1,056.00 and then at $1,050.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,055.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker early today. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $78.00 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of $78.46. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $77.00 and then more sell stops just below support at this week's low of $76.56. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $78.59.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading, on a corrective pullback from Monday's gains. There has been good progress in the harvesting of corn and soybeans in the U.S. Corn Belt the past few days, and more dry weather is in the forecast. That's a bearish fundamental for the grains. However, the grains will continue to more closely monitor the key "outside markets:" crude oil, the U.S. dollar and the U.S. stock indexes. Those markets are in a bearish posture for the grains today, as the dollar is higher, stock indexes weaker and crude oil is weaker.
Tags:stock-indexes, interest-rates, currencies, gold, grains, crude-oil
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