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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Wednesday
Wednesday, November 4--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web
Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading are
higher crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The commodity futures markets are looking to put in
a strong performance today, with gold futures
hitting another all-time record high overnight and
the U.S. dollar on the defensive this morning. This
so called "carry trade" move by traders worldwide--
selling the U.S. dollar and buying commodities--
appears to be getting more popular. That's a
bullish portent for most of the commodity markets.-
-Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning
trading today. Prices are presently trending lower
from the October highs and the bulls have faded.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical support comes in at the overnight low of
1,041.10 and then at this week's low of 1,026.20.
Sell stops likely reside just under those levels.
Upside resistance for active traders today is
located at this week's high of 1,049.50 and then at
1,064.00. Buy stops are likely located just above
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,045.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 1,037.30
1st Support:-------- 1,031.10
2nd Support:-------- 1,020.50
1st Resistance:----- 1,047.90
2nd Resistance:----- 1,054.10
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support
is located at the overnight low of 1,674.50 and
then at 1,660.00. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. On the upside, short-term
resistance is seen at this week's high of 1,688.00
and then at 1,700.00. Buy stops are likely located
just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,698.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,668.40
1st Support:------ 1,658.85
2nd Support:------ 1,642.20
1st Resistance:--- 1,685.10
2nd Resistance:--- 1,694.70
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 9,700 and then more stops just below
support at Tuesday's low of 9,656. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 9,800 and
then at 9,850. Shorter-term moving averages are
bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 9,850
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 9,703
1st Support:------ 9,670
2nd Support:------ 9,624
1st Resistance:--- 9,749
2nd Resistance:--- 9,782
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are weaker in
early trading today. Bears have gained downside
near-term technical momentum this week. Price
downtrends are still in place on the daily bar
charts.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-
term technical support lies at 118 18/32 and then
at 118 10/32. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance
lies at 119 even and then at the overnight high of
119 7/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 119 13/32
December U.S. T-Bonds
137 23/32--lifetime high
123 25/32--Previous Month's high
121 3/32--second pivot point resistance
120 15/32--previous day's high
120 4/32--first pivot point resistance
119 19/32--18-day moving average
119 15/32--pivot point
119 14/32--4-day moving average
119 9/32--9-day moving average
119 4/32--previous day's close
118 27/32--previous day's low
118 16/32--first pivot point support
118 9/32--100-day moving average
117 27/32--second pivot point support
117 25/32--previous month's low
110 --lifetime low
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of
118.08.5 and then at 118.16.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders
are likely located just below support at 117.21.0
and then at 117.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 117.31.0
December U.S. T-Notes
125 28/32--lifetime high
119 29/32--previous month's high
119 8/32--second pivot point resistance
118 28/32--previous day's high
118 23/32--first pivot point resistance
118 11/32--pivot point
118 8/32--4-day moving average
118 6/32--previous day's close
118 4/32--18-day moving average
117 31/32--previous day's low
117 31/32--9-day moving average
117 26/32--first pivot point support
117 14/32--second pivot point support
116 28/32--previous month's low
116 17/32--100-day moving average
107 3/32--lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is weaker in early
trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are bearish early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at the
overnight high of 76.54 and then at 77.00. Shorter-
term support is seen at the overnight low of 76.23
and then at 76.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 76.30. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.0
The December Euro is firmer in early electronic
trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely
located just below technical support at the
overnight low of 1.4700 and then at 1.4681.
Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is
seen at 1.4800 and then at this week's high of
1.4843. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish
early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 1.4792. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 5.5
GOLD
Gold is higher in early dealings today. Prices hit
a fresh contract and all-time high overnight. Gold
bulls have solid upside technical momentum on their
side. For December gold, shorter-term technical
resistance is seen at the overnight contract high
of $1,096.20 and then at $1,100.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops
likely reside just below support at the overnight
low of $1,080.50 and then at $1,075.00. Today's key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
$1,069.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today. In
December crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $81.00 and then just above
resistance at the October high of $82.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at $80.00
and then more sell stops just below support at
$79.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $79.95. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading, on follow-
through strength from gains seen Tuesday. The
grains will continue to more closely monitor the
key "outside markets:" crude oil, the U.S. dollar
and the U.S. stock indexes. Those markets are in a
bullish posture for the grains today, as the dollar
is weaker, stock indexes firmer and crude oil is
firmer. U.S. corn and soybean harvest is
progressing more rapidly in the Corn Belt, which
could somewhat limit the upside in grains today.
However, traders in the grains--like many other
markets--are paying more attention to the outside
markets than their own supply and demand
fundamentals.
stock-indexes, interest-rates, currencies, gold, grains, crude-oil
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