Friday, November 13--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today are a weaker U.S. dollar index and firmer U.S. stock
index prices.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

There's an old trading adage that says, "Any fool
can get into a market, but it's the real pros that
know when to get out." That's very true. However,
market entry methods should not be overlooked. I
wrote a feature story a while back on refining
market entry techniques. If you'd like to read it,
just send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll
attach the story and email it back to you. Have a
good weekend.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning
trading today. The indexes hit new 13-month highs
this week and the bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage.   

December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical
support comes in at Thursday's low of 1,082.70 and
then at 1,075.00. Sell stops likely reside just
under those levels. Upside resistance for active
traders today is located at 1,100.00 and then at
this week's high of 1,103.20. Buy stops are likely
located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,075.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:-------------  1,090.25
1st Support:-------- 1,079.80
2nd Support:-------- 1,072.25
1st Resistance:----- 1,097.80
2nd Resistance:----- 1,108.25

December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support
is located at Thursday's low of 1,768.00 and then
at 1,760.00. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance
is seen at the overnight high of 1,780.50 and then
at Thursday's high of 1,794.00. Buy stops are
likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,740.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:

Pivot:------------ 1,778.60
1st Support:------ 1,763.20
2nd Support:------ 1,752.60
1st Resistance:--- 1,789.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,804.60

December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,165 and then more stops just below
support at Thursday's low of 10,138. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at
10,250 and then at Wednesday's contract high of
10,305. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is
above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,049

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:

Pivot:------------ 10,206
1st Support:------ 10,121
2nd Support:------ 10,054
1st Resistance:--- 10,273
2nd Resistance:--- 10,358

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are steady to
firmer in early trading today. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Price
downtrends are in place on the daily bar charts.

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early
today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 118
16/32 and then at 118 1/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Shorter-term
technical resistance lies at the overnight high of
119 8/32 and then at this week's high of 119 14/32.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 118 22/32

December U.S. T-Bonds

137 23/32--lifetime high
123 25/32--Previous Month's high
120 21/32--second pivot point resistance
119 26/32--first pivot point resistance
119 13/32--previous day's high
119 3/32--18-day moving average
118 31/32--previous day's close
118 26/32--4-day moving average
118 24/32--9-day moving average
118 18/32--pivot point
118 17/32--100-day moving average
117 25/32--previous month's low
117 23/32--first pivot point support
117 10/32--previous day's low
116 15/32--second pivot point support
110 --lifetime low

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at this week's high of
119.04.0 and then at 119.16.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely
located just below support at 118.24.0 and then at
118.15.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 118.24.0

December U.S. T-Notes

125 28/32--lifetime high
119 29/32--previous month's high
119 18/32--second pivot point resistance
119 7/32--first pivot point resistance
119 2/32--previous day's high
118 29/32--previous day's close
118 25/32--4-day moving average
118 24/32--pivot point
118 14/32--9-day moving average
118 13/32--first pivot point support
118 8/32--previous day's low
118 7/32--18-day moving average
117 30/32--second pivot point support
116 28/32--previous month's low
116 28/32--100-day moving average
107 3/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The December U.S. dollar index is weaker in early
trading today. Bears still have the firm near-term
technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
Thursday's high of 75.88 and then at 76.00.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low
of 75.42 and then at Thursday's low of 75.03.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 75.90. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
4.0

The December Euro is near steady in early
electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are
likely located just below technical support at
Thursday's low of 1.4820 and then at 1.4800.
Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is
seen at 1.4900 and then at 1.4950. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics
for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
1.4897. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

GOLD

Gold is near steady in early dealings today. Gold
bulls still have solid upside technical momentum on
their side. For December gold, shorter-term
technical resistance is seen at the overnight high
of $1,110.90 and then at $1,120.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops
likely reside just below support at the overnight
low of $1,101.20 and then at $1,090.00. Today's key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
$1,100.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today. Prices hit
a fresh four-week low overnight. Bulls are fading.
In December crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at $77.00 and then just above
resistance at the overnight high of $77.67. Look
for sell stops just below technical support at the
overnight low of $76.00 and then more sell stops
just below support at $75.00. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: $78.29.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Prices were narrowly mixed in overnight trading.
The key outside markets are in a neutral posture
for the grains today, as crude oil and stock index
futures prices are weaker, while the U.S. dollar
index is also weaker. The grains will continue to
closely monitor the key outside markets. Grain
traders will also scrutinize this morning's weekly
USDA export sales report, delayed by one day due to
the U.S. holiday Wednesday.