Monday, November 16--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today
is solidly higher gold future prices, which hit another new
all-time record high overnight.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Commodity futures markets are starting the week out
in a strong fashion, as the key "outside markets"
are aligned in their favor: lower U.S. dollar and
higher crude oil and stock index futures prices.
Many commodity markets will continue to more
closely track these outside markets than track
their own supply and demand fundamentals.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are higher in early morning
trading today. The indexes are at or near 13-month
highs and the bulls have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage.   

December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical support comes in at the overnight low of
1,091.40 and then at 1,082.50. Sell stops likely
reside just under those levels. Upside resistance
for active traders today is located at last week's
high of 1,103.20 and then at 1,115.00. Buy stops
are likely located just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,075.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:-------------  1,089.90
1st Support:-------- 1,083.95
2nd Support:-------- 1,076.50
1st Resistance:----- 1,097.45
2nd Resistance:----- 1,103.50

December Nasdaq Index: Prices hit a new contract
and 14-month high overnight. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support
is located at the overnight low of 1,790.00 and
then at 1,780.00. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. On the upside, short-term
resistance is seen at the overnight contract high
of 1,800.75 and then at 1,810.00. Buy stops are
likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,744.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:

Pivot:------------ 1,784.25
1st Support:------ 1,775.00
2nd Support:------ 1,761.75
1st Resistance:--- 1,797.50
2nd Resistance:--- 1,806.75

December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,270 and then more stops just below
support at 10,250. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 10,350 and then at
10,375. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is
above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,049

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:

Pivot:------------ 10,226
1st Support:------ 10,181
2nd Support:------ 10,121
1st Resistance:--- 10,286
2nd Resistance:--- 10,331

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are higher in
early trading today. Bulls have regained some fresh
upside technical momentum.

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at
119 16/32 and then at the overnight low of 119
10/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at
the overnight high of 120 1/32 and then at 120
16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 119 9/32

December U.S. T-Bonds

137 23/32--lifetime high
123 25/32--Previous Month's high
120 1/32--second pivot point resistance
119 24/32--first pivot point resistance
119 17/32--previous day's high
119 14/32--previous day's close
119 7/32--pivot point
119 1/32--18-day moving average
119 1/32--4-day moving average
118 30/32--first pivot point support
118 23/32--9-day moving average
118 23/32--previous day's low
118 18/32--100-day moving average
118 13/32--second pivot point support
117 25/32--previous month's low
110 --lifetime low

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of
119.07.0 and then at 119.16.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely
located just below support at the overnight low of
118.29.5 and then at Friday's low of 118.24.0.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 118.24.0

December U.S. T-Notes

125 28/32--lifetime high
119 29/32--previous month's high
119 7/32--second pivot point resistance
119 3/32--first pivot point resistance
119 2/32--previous day's high
118 30/32--previous day's close
118 29/32--pivot point
118 28/32--4-day moving average
118 25/32--first pivot point support
118 24/32--previous day's low
118 19/32--second pivot point support
118 16/32--9-day moving average
118 7/32--18-day moving average
116 29/32--100-day moving average
116 28/32--previous month's low
107 3/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The December U.S. dollar index is lower in early
trading today. Bears still have the firm near-term
technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 75.36 and then at 75.50.
Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of
74.85 and then at 74.50. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: 75.86.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

The December Euro is firmer in early electronic
trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop
orders are likely located just below technical
support at the overnight low of 1.4919 and then at
1.4900. Shorter-term technical resistance for the
Euro is seen at 1.5000 and then at last week's high
of 1.5048. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral
early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 1.4898. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 6.0

GOLD

Gold is higher in early dealings today. Prices hit
another fresh contract and all-time high overnight,
amid the weaker U.S. dollar. Gold bulls still have
solid upside technical momentum on their side. For
December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is
seen at the overnight contract high of $1,133.50
and then at $1,140.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just
below support at the overnight low of $1,119.50 and
then at $1,110.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $1,121.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today, on a
corrective bounce from recent losses. Prices hit a
fresh four-week low Friday and closed at a bearish
weekly low close. Bulls are fading. In December
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $78.00 and then just above resistance
at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at $77.00 and then more sell stops just
below support at the overnight low of $76.35.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: $77.64. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

GRAINS

Prices were higher in overnight trading. The key
outside markets are in a bullish posture for the
grains today, as crude oil and stock index futures
prices are higher, while the U.S. dollar index is 
lower. The grains will continue to closely monitor
the key outside markets. However, traders will soon
also begin to focus more on worldwide grain supply
and demand fundamentals now that the U.S. corn and
soybean harvest will be nearing completion as
November comes to an end.