Wednesday, November 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web
Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today are a weaker U.S. dollar and higher crude oil prices.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

U.S. T-Bond and T-Note futures prices have been
rallying recently. Traders are reacting to repeated
proclamations by the U.S. Federal Reserve that
interest rates will remain low for quite some time.
Also, it has been apparent recently that U.S.
Treasuries and the U.S. stock market are no longer
trading in a distinct inverse relationship.
However, if the U.S. stock indexes start to trend
lower, then U.S. Treasuries are likely to get an
added boost to the upside.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are steady to firmer in
early morning trading today. The indexes are still
near 13-month highs and the bulls still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage.   

December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical
support comes in at 1,100.00 and then at this
week's low of 1,091.40. Sell stops likely reside
just under those levels. Upside resistance for
active traders today is located at Monday's high of
1,112.10 and then at 1,125.00. Buy stops are likely
located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,079.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:-------------  1,105.50
1st Support:-------- 1,101.95
2nd Support:-------- 1,096.50
1st Resistance:----- 1,110.95
2nd Resistance:----- 1,114.50

December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term
technical support is located at 1,800.00 and then
at this week's low of 1,790.00. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. On the upside,
short-term resistance is seen at Monday's contract
high of 1,815.00 and then at 1,825.00. Buy stops
are likely located just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,752.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:

Pivot:------------ 1,805.60
1st Support:------ 1,799.20
2nd Support:------ 1,789.60
1st Resistance:--- 1,815.20
2nd Resistance:--- 1,821.60

December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,375 and then more stops just below
support at Tuesday's low of 10,337. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at
10,450 and then at 10,500. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,112

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:

Pivot:------------ 10,380
1st Support:------ 10,355
2nd Support:------ 10,312
1st Resistance:--- 10,423
2nd Resistance:--- 10,448

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are weaker in
early trading today, on a corrective pullback
following recent gains. Bulls still have some
upside technical momentum, but need to show more
power soon.

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 120 25/32 and then at 120
16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at
Tuesday's high of 121 7/32 and then at 121 16/32.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 119 24/32

December U.S. T-Bonds

137 23/32--lifetime high
123 25/32--Previous Month's high
121 28/32--second pivot point resistance
121 14/32--first pivot point resistance
121 7/32--previous day's high
121 1/32--previous day's close
120 26/32--pivot point
120 12/32--first pivot point support
120 5/32--previous day's low
120 2/32--4-day moving average
119 24/32--second pivot point support
119 8/32--9-day moving average
119 5/32--18-day moving average
118 20/32--100-day moving average
117 25/32--previous month's low
110 --lifetime low

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 119.27.5
and then at 120.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located
just below support at 119.10.0 and then at
119.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 119.07.0

December U.S. T-Notes

125 28/32--lifetime high
120 5/32--second pivot point resistance
119 30/32--first pivot point resistance
119 29/32--previous month's high
119 27/32--previous day's high
119 23/32--previous day's close
119 20/32--pivot point
119 13/32--first pivot point support
119 10/32--4-day moving average
119 10/32--previous day's low
119 3/32--second pivot point support
118 28/32--9-day moving average
118 14/32--18-day moving average
117 --100-day moving average
116 28/32--previous month's low
107 3/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The December U.S. dollar index is lower in early
trading today. Bears still have the firm near-term
technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 75.43 and then at this week's
high of 75.72. Shorter-term support is seen at the
contract low of 74.75 and then at 74.50. Today's
key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
75.83. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

The December Euro is higher in early electronic
trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders
are likely located just below technical support at
1.4900 and then at the overnight low of 1.4862.
Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is
seen at 1.5000 and then at last week's high of
1.5048. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish
early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 1.4898. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 6.0

GOLD

Gold is higher in early dealings today and hit
another fresh contract and all-time record high
overnight, amid a weaker dollar today. Gold bulls
still have upside technical momentum on their side.
There are no early technical clues of a market top
being close at hand. For December gold, shorter-
term technical resistance is seen at the overnight
contract high of $1,149.60 and then at $1,160.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Sell stops likely reside just below support at
$1,140.00 and then at the overnight low of
$1,136.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $1,131.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today. Bulls this
week have gained fresh upside technical momentum.
In December crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at the overnight high of
$80.23 and then just above resistance at $81.00.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $79.27 and then more sell
stops just below support at $79.00. Today's key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
$79.55. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were higher in overnight trading. Grain
bulls have gained fresh upside technical momentum
this week. The key outside markets are in a bullish
posture for the grains today, as crude oil and
stock index futures prices are firmer, while the
U.S. dollar index is weaker. The grains will
continue to closely monitor the key outside
markets.