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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Friday
Friday, November 20--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today are a firmer U.S. dollar and weaker crude oil and
U.S. stock index prices.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Have you looked at the lumber futures market's
price action this week? There were two limit-up
price days in a row that sent lumber to a five-
month high. Price action in lumber the past six
weeks has seen a steep uptrend develop. Lumber's
recent price action is a clue that U.S. economic
activity is on the rebound. Copper is another
market that is a good indicator of worldwide
economic activity. Copper futures this week also
hit a fresh 14-month high.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are lower in early morning
trading today, on more profit-taking from recent
gains. No serious chart damage has occurred this
week, but the bulls do not want to see bearish
weekly low closes in the stock indexes today.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day, but is turning down. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average, but is turning down, too.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
support comes in at 1,082.50 and then at 1,075.00.
Sell stops likely reside just under those levels.
Upside resistance for active traders today is
located at the overnight high of 1,095.00 and then
at 1,100.00. Buy stops are likely located just
above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,079.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 1,096.70
1st Support:-------- 1,084.10
2nd Support:-------- 1,073.90
1st Resistance:----- 1,106.90
2nd Resistance:----- 1,119.50
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day, but has turned down. The 9-day average
is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-
term technical support is located at the overnight
low of 1,755.75 and then at 1,750.00. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. On the
upside, short-term resistance is seen at the
overnight high of 1,773.75 and then at 1,785.00.
Buy stops are likely located just above those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,752.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,777.20
1st Support:------ 1,752.10
2nd Support:------ 1,733.90
1st Resistance:--- 1,795.35
2nd Resistance:--- 1,802.25
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at Thursday's low of 10,238 and then more
stops just below support at 10,200. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at
10,300 and then at Thursday's high of 10,350.
Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is
above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,112
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 10,305
1st Support:------ 10,260
2nd Support:------ 10,193
1st Resistance:--- 10,372
2nd Resistance:--- 10,417
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are firmer in
early trading today. Bulls still have some upside
technical momentum. Bullish weekly high closes
today would provide the bulls with better upside
technical momentum.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 120 23/32 and then at
120 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance
lies at the overnight high of 121 7/32 and then at
Thursday's high of 121 11/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 119 24/32
December U.S. T-Bonds
137 23/32--lifetime high
123 25/32--Previous Month's high
121 25/32--second pivot point resistance
121 11/32--previous day's high
121 10/32--first pivot point resistance
120 28/32--pivot point
120 27/32--previous day's close
120 26/32--4-day moving average
120 14/32--previous day's low
120 13/32--first pivot point support
119 31/32--second pivot point support
119 24/32--9-day moving average
119 13/32--18-day moving average
118 23/32--100-day moving average
117 25/32--previous month's low
110 --lifetime low
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Buy stops likely reside just above
shorter-term technical resistance at 120.00.0 and
then at 120.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located
just below support at the overnight low of 119.21.0
and then at Thursday's low of 119.12.0. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 119.07.0
December U.S. T-Notes
125 28/32--lifetime high
120 6/32--second pivot point resistance
119 29/32--first pivot point resistance
119 29/32--previous month's high
119 29/32--previous day's high
119 21/32--previous day's close
119 21/32--pivot point
119 20/32--4-day moving average
119 12/32--first pivot point support
119 12/32--previous day's low
119 6/32--9-day moving average
119 4/32--second pivot point support
118 21/32--18-day moving average
117 3/32--100-day moving average
116 28/32--previous month's low
107 3/32--lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is higher in early
trading today, on short covering. Bears still have
the firm near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at 76.00 and then at 76.25.
Shorter-term support is seen at 75.50 and then at
the overnight low of 75.28. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: 75.83.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The December Euro is lower in early electronic
trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. However, a weekly low close
today would provide the bears with fresh downside
technical momentum. Euro finds sell stop orders are
likely located just below technical support at the
overnight low of 1.4799 and then at 1.4750.
Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is
seen at 1.4850 and then at 1.4900. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics
for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
1.4898. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is lower in early dealings today, on more
profit taking and amid a firmer U.S. dollar index.
Gold bulls still have the near-term technical
advantage. There are still no early technical clues
of a market top being close at hand. For December
gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
$1,140.00 and then at the overnight high of
$1,148.10. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support
at the overnight low of $1,132.50 and then at this
week's low of $1,127.80. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,131.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower again early today on
more profit taking. Bulls are fading again and do
not want to see a bearish weekly low close today.
In December crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at $77.00 and then just above
resistance at $77.50. Look for sell stops just
below technical support at $76.00 and then more
sell stops just below support at the November low
of $75.57. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $75.70. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading, on more
profit-taking pressure from recent gains. Grain
bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The key outside markets are in a bearish
posture for the grains again today, as crude oil
and stock index futures prices are weaker, while
the U.S. dollar index is firmer. These outside
markets are still the main drivers of the grain
markets.
stock-indexes, interest-rates, currencies, gold, grains, crude-oil
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