Monday, November 23--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today are a lower U.S. dollar and generally stronger
commodity market prices.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Most traders in most markets are still focusing on
the value of the U.S. dollar against the other
major currencies, via the U.S. dollar index. As
long as the U.S. dollar index continues to trend
sideways to lower, as has been the case for months
now, then most commodity markets will continue to
see selling pressure limited and their path of
least resistance will be sideways to higher.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are higher in early morning
trading today. Gentle price uptrends remain in
place on the daily bar charts for the stock
indexes, which suggests from a technical standpoint
that more of the same is likely in the coming
weeks.

December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical
support comes in at the overnight low of 1,089.10
and then at last week's low of 1,083.80. Sell stops
likely reside just under those levels. Upside
resistance for active traders today is located at
last week's high of 1,112.10 and then at 1,120.00.
Buy stops are likely located just above those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,079.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:-------------  1,089.65
1st Support:-------- 1,084.30
2nd Support:-------- 1,078.45
1st Resistance:----- 1,095.50
2nd Resistance:----- 1,100.85

December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical support is
located at 1,770.00 and then at the overnight low
of 1,763.50. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance
is seen at the 1,785.00 and then at 1,800.00. Buy
stops are likely located just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,752.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:

Pivot:------------ 1,764.35 
1st Support:------ 1,754.90
2nd Support:------ 1,746.35
1st Resistance:--- 1,772.90
2nd Resistance:--- 1,782.35

December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,350 and then more stops just below
support at 10,300. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at last week's contract
high of 10,405 and then at 10,450. Shorter-term
moving averages are still bullish early today, as
the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,112

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:

Pivot:------------ 10,295
1st Support:------ 10,266
2nd Support:------ 10,228
1st Resistance:--- 10,333
2nd Resistance:--- 10,362

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are weaker in
early trading today, amid the solid rallies in the
U.S. stock indexes today.

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at
Friday's low of 120 13/32 and then at 120 even.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the
overnight high of 120 26/32 and then at 121 even.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 119 25/32

December U.S. T-Bonds

137 23/32--lifetime high
123 25/32--Previous Month's high
121 19/32--second pivot point resistance
121 7/32--previous day's high
121 6/32--first pivot point resistance
120 25/32--pivot point
120 25/32--4-day moving average
120 24/32--previous day's close
120 13/32--previous day's low
120 12/32--first pivot point support
120 --9-day moving average
119 31/32--second pivot point support
119 16/32--18-day moving average
118 24/32--100-day moving average
117 25/32--previous month's low
110 --lifetime low

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of
119.18.0 and then at 119.24.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely
located just below support at the overnight low of
119.07.0 and then at 119.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 119.07.0

December U.S. T-Notes

125 28/32--lifetime high
120 5/32--second pivot point resistance
119 31/32--previous day's high
119 29/32--previous month's high
119 26/32--first pivot point resistance
119 20/32--pivot point
119 19/32--4-day moving average
119 15/32--previous day's close
119 14/32--previous day's low
119 9/32--first pivot point support
119 9/32--9-day moving average
119 3/32--second pivot point support
118 24/32--18-day moving average
117 4/32--100-day moving average
116 28/32--previous month's low
107 3/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The December U.S. dollar index is lower in early
trading today. Bears still have the firm near-term
technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
75.50 and then at the overnight high of 75.84.
Shorter-term support is seen at 75.00 and then at
the contract low of 74.75. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: 75.79.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0

The December Euro is higher in early electronic
trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders
are likely located just below technical support at
the 1.4900 and then at the overnight low of 1.4848.
Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is
seen at 1.5000 and then at the November high of
1.5048. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral
early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 1.4898. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 6.0

GOLD

Gold is solidly higher in early dealings today, as
prices set another fresh contract and all-time
record high overnight, amid the lower U.S. dollar.
Gold bulls still have solid the near-term technical
advantage. There are still no early technical clues
of a market top being close at hand. For December
gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
the overnight contract high of $1,167.80 and then
at $1,175.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below
support at the overnight low of $1,151.60 and then
at $1,140.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $1,152.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today. In January
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $79.00 and then just above resistance
at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at the overnight low of $77.71 and then
more sell stops just below support at $77.00.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: $79.04. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0

GRAINS

Prices were higher in overnight trading, amid
bullishly postured "outside markets" that include a
lower U.S. dollar and higher crude oil and U.S.
stock index futures prices. Grain bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The outside
markets are still the main drivers of the grain
markets.