JimWyckoff's Commentaries
Softs Market Commentary
March sugar closed up 73 points at 27.48 cents yesterday. Prices closed near mid-range yesterday. Trading has become choppier recently. The gains in sugar yesterday were impressive, given the mostly bearish outside markets that included sharply lower gold and crude oil prices and lower U.S. stock indexes. The sugar bulls still have the near-term technical advantage as prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 28.95 cents. Bears' next downside price objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 25.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 28.00 cents and then at 28.35 cents. First support is seen at 27.25 cents and then at 27.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0
Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software
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March coffee closed down 55 points at 143.15 cents yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session low yesterday. The key outside markets were in a mostly bearish posture for coffee yesterday--sharply lower crude oil and gold prices and lower U.S. stock indexes. Coffee bulls still do have the overall near-term technical advantage and their next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of 149.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 140.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at yesterday’s high of 144.85 cents and then at 146.00 cents. First support is seen at yesterday's low of 142.50 cents and then at 141.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0
March cocoa closed down $37 at $3,306 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session low yesterday after hitting a fresh three-week high early on. Price action yesterday also scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. The key outside markets were in a mostly bearish posture for cocoa yesterday--sharply lower crude oil and gold prices and lower U.S. stock indexes. Cocoa bulls still have the overall technical advantage. Prices are still in a seven-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of $3,439. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of $3,223. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of 3,352 and then at $3,375. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $3,282 and then at $3,250.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.
March cotton closed down 156 points at 72.68 cents yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session low yesterday. The key outside markets were in a mostly bearish posture for cotton yesterday--sharply lower crude oil and gold prices and lower U.S. stock indexes. Yesterday’s USDA report was deemed neutral to friendly yesterday, but cotton sold off anyway, which is another bearish clue. Near-term chart damage has been inflicted in cotton recently. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at 70.00 cents. The
next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 76.77 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 72.43 cents and then at 72.00. First resistance is seen at 73.00 cents and then at 73.50 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
March orange juice closed up 455 points at $1.3640 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering and some bottom-picking buying after the huge sell off on Monday. There were more reports of freeze damage to the Florida orange crop yesterday, which also lent to buying interest in FCOJ. FCOJ bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. Another big push higher in prices cannot be ruled out. The next upside price objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above strong technical resistance at last week’s high of $1.5115. The next downside technical objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the last reaction low on the daily bar chart, at $1.2800. First resistance is seen at yesterday’s high of $1.3870 and then at $1.4000. First support is seen at 1.3500 and then at yesterday’s low of $1.3210.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.
March lumber futures closed down $7.90 at $232.90 yesterday. Prices closed near the session low yesterday. Lumber bulls and bears are back on a level near-term technical playing field. The next upside technical objective for the lumber bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $243.80. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at last week's low of $228.10. First resistance is seen at $235.00 and then at yesterday’s high of $238.20. First support is seen at $230.00 and then at $227.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
Tags: coffee | cocoa | sugar | cotton | orange-juice | lumber