JimWyckoff's Commentaries
Softs Market Commentary
March sugar closed up 31 points at 29.29 cents yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday and hit another fresh contract and 30-year high. Sugar bucked the trend of most other commodities being under pressure due to bearish outside markets yesterday and scored gains. That is yet another bullish clue for sugar. The sugar bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at 31.00 cents. Bears' next downside price objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of 27.32 cents. First resistance is seen at yesterday’s contract high of 29.45 cents and then at 29.75 cents. First support is seen at 29.00 cents and then at yesterday's low of 28.57 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5
Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software
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March coffee closed down 145 points at 139.45 cents yesterday. Prices closed near mid-range yesterday and did hit a fresh three-week low. The key "outside markets" were in a fully bearish posture for coffee yesterday, as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher, while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were sharply lower. Coffee bulls and bears are back on a level near-term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of 149.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of 135.80 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at yesterday’s high of 140.50 cents and then at 142.00 cents. First support is seen at yesterday's low of 138.45 cents and then at 137.50 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0
March cocoa closed down $46 at $3,415 yesterday. Prices closed near the session low on profit-taking pressure from recent gains. The key "outside markets" were in a fully bearish posture for cocoa yesterday, as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher, while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were sharply lower. Cocoa bulls still have the solid overall technical advantage. Supply and demand fundamentals in the cocoa market are fully bullish. Prices are still in a seven-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the December contract high of $3,510. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $3,300. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of 3,458 and then at this week's high of $3,473. First support is seen at $3,400 and then at $3,350.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.
March cotton closed down 84 points at 70.80 cents yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session low yesterday and hit another fresh nine-week low. The key "outside markets" were in a fully bearish posture for cotton yesterday, as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher, while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were sharply lower. Serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted in cotton recently to suggest that a near-term market top is in place. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at 70.00 cents. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 74.49 cents. First support is seen at yesterday’s low of 70.52 cents and then at 70.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 71.00 cents and then at 71.50 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.
March orange juice closed up 155 points at $1.3490 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering. FCOJ bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above strong technical resistance at the January high of $1.5115. The next downside technical objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the last reaction low on the daily bar chart, at $1.2800. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $1.3650 and then at $1.3800. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $1.3200 and then at $1.3000.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.
March lumber futures closed up $1.20 at $255.00 yesterday. Prices hit a fresh seven-week high yesterday and closed near mid-range. Lumber bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The next upside technical objective for the lumber bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of $269.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at $239.00. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $257.50 and then at $260.00. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $252.00 and then at this week's low of $250.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.
Tags: coffee | cocoa | sugar | cotton | orange-juice | lumber