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U.S. stock indexes are slightly higher
Wednesday, January 27--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web
Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There is no standout market feature in overnight/early
morning trading today, in quieter dealings.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Did you happen to catch the Bob Prechter interview
on CNBC Tuesday afternoon? He sounded a bearish
warning call for the U.S. stock market. Prechter
correctly called the 1987 stock market crash and is
an expert on Elliott Wave Theory. On CNBC Prechter
also said he was very bullish on the U.S. dollar
and very bearish on gold. Now, Prechter has been
bearish on the U.S. stock market for quite some
time. Still, his comments on CNBC Tuesday afternoon
did put some pressure on the stock market. I
enjoyed seeing Prechter on TV. It brought back
memories of me breaking into the business 25 years
ago. Back then, it seemed there were certain market
and economic gurus that stood out above the rest
and had their periods of fame. Other industry names
like Henry Kaufman, Tom DeMark, Linda Bradford
Raschke and Richard Dennis come to mind. Today,
with the internet the main medium of information
dissemination, there are so many so-called gurus
out there that no single person seems to stand out
above the rest. Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are slightly higher in early
morning trading today. Bears have gained some fresh
downside near-term technical momentum recently.
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical
support comes in at this week's low of 1,081.00 and
then at 1,075.00. Sell stops likely reside just
under those levels. Upside resistance for active
traders today is located at the overnight high of
1,092.10 and then at Tuesday's high of 1,100.00.
Buy stops are likely located just above those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,098.00.
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the overnight high of
1,802.00 and then at 1,812.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of
1,789.50 and then at Tuesday's low of 1,785.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,805.00
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,100 and then more stops just below
support at 10,075. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 10,150 and then at
10,175. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is
below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,171
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are near steady in
early trading today. Bulls still have some near-
term technical momentum, but need to show fresh
power soon to keep it.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support
lies at this week's low of 118 2/32 and then at 117
23/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at
116 16/32 and then at the overnight high of 118
23/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 118 25/32
MARCH U.S. T-Bonds
136 23/32--lifetime high
122 21/32--Previous Month's high
119 19/32--second pivot point resistance
119 6/32--previous day's high
119 1/32--first pivot point resistance
118 21/32--100-day moving average
118 19/32--pivot point
118 18/32--4-day moving average
118 14/32--previous day's close
118 6/32--previous day's low
118 1/32--first pivot point support
117 23/32--9-day moving average
117 19/32--second pivot point support
116 21/32--18-day moving average
114 26/32--previous month's low
110 3/32--lifetime low
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early
today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-
term technical resistance at the overnight high of
118.01.5 and then at this week's high of 118.07.0.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Sell stop orders are likely located just
below support at Tuesday's low of 117.21.0 and then
at 117.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 117.21.0
MARCH U.S. T-Notes
123 13/32--lifetime high
119 31/32--previous month's high
118 16/32--second pivot point resistance
118 7/32--previous day's high
118 6/32--first pivot point resistance
117 30/32--pivot point
117 29/32--previous day's close
117 27/32--4-day moving average
117 21/32--previous day's low
117 20/32--first pivot point support
117 12/32--9-day moving average
117 12/32--second pivot point support
117 4/32--100-day moving average
116 21/32--18-day moving average
114 28/32--previous month's low
110 29/32--lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is near steady in early
trading today. A minor bullish pennant pattern is
still in place on the daily bar chart. The bulls
still have some upside near-term technical
momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are
neutral early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight
high of 78.88 and then at last week's high of
79.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 78.50 and
then at this week's low of 78.20. Today's key near-
term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 77.99.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The March Euro is near steady in early electronic
trading. Prices hit a fresh six-month low
overnight. A bearish pennant pattern has formed on
the daily bar chart. Bears still have some downside
near-term technical momentum. Euro finds sell stop
orders are likely located just below technical
support at the overnight low of 1.4020 and then at
1.4000. Shorter-term technical resistance for the
Euro is seen at 1.4100 and then at 1.4150. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow
stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1.4240. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
5.0
GOLD
Gold is weaker in early dealings today. A minor
bearish pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar
chart. For February gold, shorter-term technical
resistance is seen at $1,100.00 and then at this
week's high of 1,104.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside
just below support at $1,088.00 and then at
$1,080.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $1,106.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bulls
have faded recently. Prices are still in a three-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. In March
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $75.00 and then just above resistance
at this week's high of $75.42. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at the overnight low
of $74.44 and then more sell stops just below
support at $74.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $76.18. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were lower again in overnight trading. Corn
futures could not rally on fresh bullish export
demand news on Tuesday, which is another bearish
clue. Soybeans have a big South American crop
looming, which is bearish. And wheat futures
traders are seeing U.S. wheat that has slack demand
due to strong worldwide competition. Grain market
bears also have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Significant to serious near-term chart
damage has been inflicted in the grain futures
markets.
stock-indexes, interest-rates, currencies, gold, grains, crude-oil
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