JimWyckoff's Commentaries

Jan 27 2010

Grain Market Analysis

March corn futures closed down 6 1/4 cents at $3.61 1/2 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh 3.5-month low yesterday. The key "outside
markets" were in a mostly bearish posture for corn yesterday, as crude oil prices were weaker and the U.S. dollar index was firmer. Bears gained some more downside technical momentum yesterday. The next downside price objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at $3.50 a bushel. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices above solid technical resistance at $3.92 1/2 a bushel, which is the top of the recent downside price gap on the daily bar chart. First resistance for March corn is seen at $3.65 and then at yesterday's high of $3.69. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $3.60 1/4 and then at $3.55.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

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March soybeans closed up 7 1/4 cents at $9.47 3/4 a bushel yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday after hitting a fresh 3.5-month low early on. Short covering in a bear market was featured yesterday. Serious technical damage has been inflicted in soybeans recently. The prospect of a big South American soybean crop is also a major bearish fundamental for the soybeam market at present. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below major psychological support at $9.00. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is pushing and closing March prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $9.84. First resistance for March soybeans is seen at $9.50 and then at this week's high of $9.56. First support is seen at $9.40 and then at yesterday's low of $9.32 1/2.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

March soybean meal closed up $3.60 at $286.60 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday after hitting a fresh 2.5-month low early on. Short covering in a bear market was featured yesterday. Serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted in meal recently. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of $275.00. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $294.20. First resistance comes in at this week's high of $287.80 and then at $290.00. First support is seen at $284.00 and then at yesterday's low of $281.20.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

March bean oil closed up 21 points at 36.71 cents yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday after hitting a fresh 3.5-month low early on. Short covering in a bear market was featured yesterday. Serious near-term chart damage has occurred in bean oil recently. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at 35.00 cents. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of 37.98 cents. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 36.99 cents and then at 37.25 cents. First support is seen at 36.50 cents and then at yesterday's low of 36.10 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

March Chicago SRW wheat closed down 6 cents at $4.92 1/4 yesterday. Prices closed near the session low yesterday. Serious near-term technical damage has been inflicted in wheat recently. A bearish pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $4.59. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close March futures prices above solid technical resistance at $5.38 a bushel. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $5.00 1/2 and then at this week's high of $5.04. First support lies at yesterday's low of $4.91 1/2 and then at last week's low of $4.85 1/4.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

March K.C. HRW wheat closed down 1 1/2 cents at $4.99 1/2 yesterday. Prices closed near mid-range. Serious near-term chart damage has occurred recently. A bearish pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $5.40. The bears' next downside objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $4.75 1/4. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $5.02 and then at this week's high of $5.06 1/2. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $4.97 and then at last week's low of $4.92.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

March oats closed down 1 1/2 cents at $2.31 3/4 yesterday. Prices closed near mid-range yesterday. Serious chart damage has been inflicted in oats recently. A bearish pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Bears' next downside price objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $2.13. Bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.50. First support lies at $2.30 and then at this week's low of $2.27 3/4. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $2.34 1/2 and then at this week's high of $2.37.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.



Tags: corn | soybeans | wheat | grains | futures
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