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U.S. dollar has rebounded
Thursday, January 28--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today are firmer U.S. stock index and crude oil prices.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
As the U.S. dollar has rebounded the past few
weeks, traders have unwound the dollar "carry
trade" that had been prevalent for months. The
carry trade involved selling the U.S. dollar and
buying many other commodity futures markets,
including crude oil. Now that the carry trade is no
longer being employed, the commodity markets are
focusing more on their own individual supply and
demand fundamentals. That's a good thing for the
market place.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning
trading today. Bulls needed to show some power
after last week's drubbing. Bulls are still hanging
on to the slight overall near-term technical
advantage.
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
support comes in at the overnight low of 1,094.00
and then at 1,086.50. Sell stops likely reside just
under those levels. Upside resistance for active
traders today is located at the overnight high of
1,103.30 and then at 1,110.00. Buy stops are likely
located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,098.00.
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the overnight high of
1,819.75 and then at this week's high of 1,825.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On
the downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 1,808.00 and then at 1,800.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,805.00
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,200 and then more stops just below
support at 10,175. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 10,250 and then at
10,275. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is
below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,171
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are weaker in
early trading today. Bulls are fading again and
need to show fresh power soon.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 117 20/32 and then at 117
10/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at
the overnight high of 118 13/32 and then at 118
24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 117 12/32
MARCH U.S. T-Bonds
136 23/32--lifetime high
122 21/32--Previous Month's high
119 14/32--second pivot point resistance
119 4/32--previous day's high
118 26/32--first pivot point resistance
118 20/32--100-day moving average
118 16/32--pivot point
118 13/32--4-day moving average
118 6/32--previous day's close
118 6/32--previous day's low
117 30/32--9-day moving average
117 28/32--first pivot point support
117 18/32--second pivot point support
116 25/32--18-day moving average
114 26/32--previous month's low
110 3/32--lifetime low
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of
117.22.5 and then at 118.00.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are still bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop
orders are likely located just below support at the
overnight low of 117.08.0 and then at 117.00.0.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 117.21.0
MARCH U.S. T-Notes
123 13/32--lifetime high
119 31/32--previous month's high
118 17/32--second pivot point resistance
118 9/32--previous day's high
118 2/32--first pivot point resistance
117 26/32--pivot point
117 25/32--4-day moving average
117 19/32--previous day's close
117 18/32--previous day's low
117 16/32--9-day moving average
117 11/32--first pivot point support
117 4/32--100-day moving average
117 3/32--second pivot point support
116 24/32--18-day moving average
114 28/32--previous month's low
110 29/32--lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in
early trading today. Prices hit a fresh five-month
high overnight. The bulls still have some upside
near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are neutral early today. The
dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at 79.00 and then at the overnight high
of 79.26. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 78.75 and then at 78.50. Today's
key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
79.09. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The March Euro is near steady in early electronic
trading. Prices hit another fresh six-month low
overnight. Bears still have some downside near-term
technical momentum. Euro finds sell stop orders are
likely located just below technical support at the
overnight low of 1.3929 and then at 1.3900.
Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is
seen at the overnight high of 1.4051 and then at
1.4100. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish
early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 1.4028. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is firmer in early dealings today. Trading has
turned choppy. For February gold, shorter-term
technical resistance is seen at $1,100.00 and then
at this week's high of 1,104.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely
reside just below support at $1,088.00 and then at
the overnight low of $1,080.50. Today's key near-
term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,104.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today, on short
covering. Bulls have faded recently. Prices are
still in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. In March crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at $75.00 and then
just above resistance at this week's high of
$75.42. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at $74.00 and then at the overnight low of
$73.35. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $76.18. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Prices were firmer in overnight trading, on tepid
short covering in bear markets. Traders will
closely scrutinize this morning's USDA weekly
export sales report. Grain market bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage.
Significant to serious near-term chart damage has
been inflicted in the grain futures markets
recently.
stock-indexes, interest-rates, currencies, gold, grains, crude-oil
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