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JimWyckoff's Commentaries

Jan 28 2010

Softs Market Commentary

March sugar closed down 100 points at 28.30 cents yesterday. Prices closed near the session low yesterday and saw more profit-taking pressure after recent gains. The key "outside markets" were in a bearish posture for sugar yesterday, as crude oil and stock index prices were lower and the U.S. dollar index was firmer. A potentially bearish broadening patter has formed on the daily bar chart. However, the sugar bulls do still have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at this week's contract high of 30.10 cents. Bears' next downside price objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 27.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 28.50 cents and then at 29.00 cents. First support is seen at yesterday's low of 28.16 cents and then at 28.00 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

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March coffee closed down 455 points at 133.70 cents yesterday. Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh 10-week low yesterday. Serious near-term chart damage was inflicted yesterday. The key "outside markets" were in a bearish posture for coffee yesterday, as crude oil and stock index prices were lower and the U.S. dollar index was firmer. Coffee bears have the near-term technical advantage and gained more downside momentum yesterday. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at this week's high of 140.40 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 130.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 135.00 cents and then at 136.00 cents. First support is seen at the November low of 133.05 cents and then at 132.50 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

March cocoa closed down $103 at $3,260 yesterday. Prices closed near mid-range yesterday and did hit a fresh five-week low. The key "outside markets" were in a bearish posture for cocoa yesterday, as crude oil and stock index prices were lower and the U.S. dollar index was firmer. More profit-taking pressure was featured yesterday and some chart damage was inflicted as a seven-month-old uptrend on the daily chart was negated yesterday. More serious chart damage would be inflicted by solid follow-through selling pressure on Thursday. Cocoa bulls still have the slight overall technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $3,400. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of $3,102. First resistance is seen at 3,300 and then at $3,325. First support is seen at $3,250 and then at the December low of $3,223.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

March cotton closed down 59 points at 69.23 cents yesterday. Prices closed near the session low and hit another fresh three-month low yesterday. The key "outside markets" were in a bearish posture for cotton yesterday, as crude oil and stock index prices were lower and the U.S. dollar index was firmer. Serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted in cotton recently to suggest that a near-term market top is in place. Prices are in a steep four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at 69.00 cents. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of 71.65 cents. First support is seen at yesterday's low of 69.03 cents and then at 68.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 69.50 cents and then at 70.00 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

March orange juice closed up 275 points at $1.4560 yesterday. Prices again closed nearer the session high yesterday and hit a fresh three-week high. FCOJ is getting continued support from the recent damaging freeze in Florida citrus regions. FCOJ bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and have gained more upside momentum this week. The next upside price objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above strong technical resistance at the January high of $1.5115. The next downside technical objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $1.3500. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $1.4705 and then at $1.4800. First support is seen at $1.4400 and then at yesterday's low of $1.4285.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

March lumber futures closed down $9.50 at $237.60 yesterday. Prices gapped lower on the daily bar chart and closed near the session low. Chart damage was inflicted yesterday as bulls have faded. The next upside technical objective for the lumber bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $250.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at the January low of $228.10. First resistance is seen at $240.00 and then at yesterday's high of $244.00. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $237.50 and then at $235.00.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.



Tags: coffee | cocoa | sugar | cotton | orange-juice | lumber | futures
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