JimWyckoff's Commentaries

Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Monday

by JimWyckoff on Feb 1, 2010

Monday, February 1--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

There is no standout market feature in quieter
overnight/early morning trading on this first trading day
of the month.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The U.S. dollar index has seen an impressive rally
from the late-November low. Prices are in a nine-
week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart and last
Friday produced a bullish weekly and monthly high
close, while also hitting a fresh 7.5-month high.
The stronger U.S. dollar is also a solidly bearish
development for gold and crude oil prices, as well
as some other commodity markets.--Jim 

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning
trading today, on some short covering. Price action
the past two weeks has produced a short-term
downtrend. The indexes on Friday also saw bearish
weekly and monthly low closes.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical
support comes in at last week's low of 1,066.70 and
then at 1,060.00. Sell stops likely reside just
under those levels. Upside resistance for active
traders today is located at 1,080.00 and then at
1,085.00. Buy stops are likely located just above
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,097.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at 1,750.00 and then at
1,760.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen
at the overnight low of 1,738.25 and then at last
week's low of 1,731.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,792.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,050 and then more stops just below
support at Friday's low of 10,000. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 10,100
and then at 10,150. Shorter-term moving averages
are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,126

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are slightly lower
in early trading today. Trading has turned choppy
recently.

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at
118 16/32 and then at 118 6/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Shorter-term
technical resistance lies at 119 even and then at
last week's high of 119 7/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 117 16/32

MARCH U.S. T-Bonds

136 23/32--lifetime high
119 24/32--second pivot point resistance
119 9/32--first pivot point resistance
119 6/32--Previous Month's high
118 31/32--previous day's high
118 26/32--previous day's close
118 20/32--100-day moving average
118 16/32--pivot point
118 13/32--4-day moving average
118 9/32--9-day moving average
118 1/32--first pivot point support
117 23/32--previous day's low
117 8/32--second pivot point support
117 5/32--18-day moving average
114 22/32--previous month's low
110 3/32--lifetime low

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early
today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-
term technical resistance at the overnight high of
118.09.5 and then at last week's high of 118.14.0.
Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located
just below support at the overnight low of 117.24.0
and then at 117.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 117.21.0

MARCH U.S. T-Notes

123 13/32--lifetime high
118 23/32--second pivot point resistance
118 14/32--first pivot point resistance
118 9/32--previous month's high
118 6/32--previous day's high
118 4/32--previous day's close
117 28/32--pivot point
117 27/32--4-day moving average
117 22/32--9-day moving average
117 19/32--first pivot point support
117 11/32--previous day's low
117 5/32--100-day moving average
117 1/32--second pivot point support
117 1/32--18-day moving average
114 31/32--previous month's low
110 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The March U.S. dollar index is weaker in early
trading today. Prices hit a 7.5 five-month high
overnight. The bulls still have upside near-term
technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are bearish early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at the
overnight high of 79.76 and then at 80.00. Shorter-
term support is seen at 79.25 and then at 79.00.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 78.60. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
4.5

The March Euro is firmer in early electronic
trading. Prices hit another fresh 6.5-month low
overnight. Bears still have downside near-term
technical momentum. Euro finds sell stop orders are
likely located just below technical support at the
overnight low of 1.3851 and then at 1.3800.
Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is
seen at the overnight high of 1.3916 and then at
1.3950. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish
early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 1.3982. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 5.5

GOLD

Gold is firmer in early dealings today. Trading has
turned choppy, but prices are still in a downtrend
on the daily chart. For April gold, shorter-term
technical resistance is seen at $1,091.40 and then
at 1,096.90. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below
support at the overnight low of $1,077.20 and then
at last week's low of $1,074.40. Today's key near-
term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,091.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Prices are
still in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. Prices on Friday scored a bearish weekly and
monthly low close. In March crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at $74.00 and
then just above resistance at $75.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $73.00 and
then at last week's low of $72.43. Today's key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
$73.98. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were narrowly mixed in quieter overnight
trading. Grain market bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Significant to
serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted
in the grain futures markets recently. Also, the
supply and demand fundamentals in the grains
presently favor the bears. The seasonal "February
Break" now appears at hand in the grains.

Tags:
stock-indexes, interest-rates, currencies, gold, grains, crude-oil

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