Monday, February 1--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

There is no standout market feature in quieter overnight/early morning trading on this first trading day of the month.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The U.S. dollar index has seen an impressive rally from the late-November low. Prices are in a nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart and last Friday produced a bullish weekly and monthly high close, while also hitting a fresh 7.5-month high. The stronger U.S. dollar is also a solidly bearish development for gold and crude oil prices, as well as some other commodity markets.--Jim 

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today, on some short covering. Price action the past two weeks has produced a short-term downtrend. The indexes on Friday also saw bearish weekly and monthly low closes.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at last week's low of 1,066.70 and then at 1,060.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,080.00 and then at 1,085.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,097.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 1,750.00 and then at 1,760.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1,738.25 and then at last week's low of 1,731.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,792.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,050 and then more stops just below support at Friday's low of 10,000. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,100 and then at 10,150. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,126

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are slightly lower in early trading today. Trading has turned choppy recently.

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 118 16/32 and then at 118 6/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 119 even and then at last week's high of 119 7/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 16/32

MARCH U.S. T-Bonds

136 23/32--lifetime high
119 24/32--second pivot point resistance
119 9/32--first pivot point resistance
119 6/32--Previous Month's high
118 31/32--previous day's high
118 26/32--previous day's close
118 20/32--100-day moving average
118 16/32--pivot point
118 13/32--4-day moving average
118 9/32--9-day moving average
118 1/32--first pivot point support
117 23/32--previous day's low
117 8/32--second pivot point support
117 5/32--18-day moving average
114 22/32--previous month's low
110 3/32--lifetime low

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 118.09.5 and then at last week's high of 118.14.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 117.24.0 and then at 117.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.21.0

MARCH U.S. T-Notes

123 13/32--lifetime high
118 23/32--second pivot point resistance
118 14/32--first pivot point resistance
118 9/32--previous month's high
118 6/32--previous day's high
118 4/32--previous day's close
117 28/32--pivot point
117 27/32--4-day moving average
117 22/32--9-day moving average
117 19/32--first pivot point support
117 11/32--previous day's low
117 5/32--100-day moving average
117 1/32--second pivot point support
117 1/32--18-day moving average
114 31/32--previous month's low
110 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The March U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today. Prices hit a 7.5 five-month high overnight. The bulls still have upside near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 79.76 and then at 80.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 79.25 and then at 79.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 78.60. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

The March Euro is firmer in early electronic trading. Prices hit another fresh 6.5-month low overnight. Bears still have downside near-term technical momentum. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3851 and then at 1.3800. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3916 and then at 1.3950. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3982. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

GOLD

Gold is firmer in early dealings today. Trading has turned choppy, but prices are still in a downtrend on the daily chart. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $1,091.40 and then at 1,096.90. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $1,077.20 and then at last week's low of $1,074.40. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,091.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Prices are still in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Prices on Friday scored a bearish weekly and monthly low close. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $74.00 and then just above resistance at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $73.00 and then at last week's low of $72.43. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $73.98. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were narrowly mixed in quieter overnight trading. Grain market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Significant to serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted in the grain futures markets recently. Also, the supply and demand fundamentals in the grains presently favor the bears. The seasonal "February Break" now appears at hand in the grains.