JimWyckoff's Commentaries

Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Tuesday

by JimWyckoff on Feb 2, 2010

Tuesday, February 2--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today
is generally higher commodity futures prices, led by gold
and crude oil.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The commodity markets so far this week have seen
some price strength, as the U.S. dollar index has
backed off from its higher levels. However, the
rebounds have been mostly short covering after most
of the commodity markets, including gold and crude
oil, had recently sold off and suffered moderate to
serious near-term technical damage. So far, this
early-week rebound in most commodity markets is
just corrective bounces in existing near-term price
downtrends.--Jim 

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer again in early
morning trading today, on more short covering.
Price action the past two weeks has produced a
short-term downtrend.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
support comes in at the overnight low of 1,082.00
and then at 1,075.00. Sell stops likely reside just
under those levels. Upside resistance for active
traders today is located at the overnight high of
1,091.80 and then at 1,100.00. Buy stops are likely
located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,097.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at 1,770.00 and
then at 1,780.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 1,751.50
and then at Monday's low of 1,738.25. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,768.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,100 and then more stops just below
support at Monday's low of 10,070. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 10,200
and then at 10,234. Shorter-term moving averages
are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,126

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are slightly lower
again in early trading today. Bulls are fading
again and need to show fresh power soon.

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-
term technical support lies at the overnight low of
117 29/32 and then at 117 20/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Shorter-term
technical resistance lies at the overnight high of
118 8/32 and then at 118 16/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 118 7/32

MARCH U.S. T-Bonds

136 23/32--lifetime high
119 18/32--second pivot point resistance
119 6/32--Previous Month's high
119 4/32--previous day's high
118 27/32--first pivot point resistance
118 21/32--100-day moving average
118 14/32--pivot point
118 12/32--4-day moving average
118 12/32--9-day moving average
118 5/32--previous day's close
118 --previous day's low
117 23/32--first pivot point support
117 10/32--second pivot point support
117 9/32--18-day moving average
114 22/32--previous month's low
110 3/32--lifetime low

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early
today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-
term technical resistance at 118.00.0 and then at
Monday's high of 118.09.5. Shorter-term moving
averages are still bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop
orders are likely located just below support at the
overnight low of 117.21.0 and then at 117.16.0.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 117.21.0

MARCH U.S. T-Notes

123 13/32--lifetime high
118 16/32--second pivot point resistance
118 9/32--previous month's high
118 9/32--previous day's high
118 5/32--first pivot point resistance
117 30/32--pivot point
117 27/32--4-day moving average
117 26/32--previous day's close
117 25/32--9-day moving average
117 23/32--previous day's low
117 19/32--first pivot point support
117 12/32--second pivot point support
117 6/32--100-day moving average
117 4/32--18-day moving average
114 31/32--previous month's low
110 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The March U.S. dollar index is weaker in early
trading today. The bulls still have some upside
near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are bearish early today. The
dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 79.58 and then
at Monday's high of 79.76. Shorter-term support is
seen at the overnight low of 79.27 and then at
79.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 78.95. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.5

The March Euro is slightly higher in early
electronic trading. Bears still have some downside
near-term technical momentum. Euro finds sell stop
orders are likely located just below technical
support at the overnight low of 1.3884 and then at
Monday's low of  1.3851. Shorter-term technical
resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight
high of 1.3957 and then at 1.4000. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics
for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
1.3982. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

GOLD

Gold is higher again in early dealings today, amid
the weaker U.S. dollar. Bulls are gaining some
fresh upside technical momentum. For April gold,
shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the
overnight high of $1,117.40 and then at 1,120.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Sell stops likely reside just below support at
$1,108.80 and then at the overnight low of
$1,099.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $1,120.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer again early today. In
March crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $76.00 and then just above
resistance at $76.50. Look for sell stops just
below technical support at $75.00 and then at the
overnight low of $74.40. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: $77.05.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were higher in overnight trading, on more
short covering. Grain market bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The key
"outside markets" are in a bullish posture for the
grains today, as crude oil and the U.S. stock
indexes are higher, while the U.S. dollar index is
weaker.

Tags:
stock-indexes, interest-rates, currencies, gold, grains, crude-oil

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