JimWyckoff's Commentaries

Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Wednesday

by JimWyckoff on Feb 3, 2010

Wednesday, February 3--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web
Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market feature again in overnight/early morning trading
today is generally higher commodity futures prices and a
weaker U.S. dollar index.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The U.S. dollar has seen some modest profit-taking
pressure this week, following recent strength.
However, the U.S. dollar index, which is a basket
of six major currencies weighted against the
greenback, remains in a solid nine-week-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. A push back below 77.50 in
the March U.S. dollar index futures would start to
produce some serious near-term chart damage to
begin to suggest a top is in place. If the March
dollar index pushes above key technical resistance
at 80.00, that would provide the bulls with fresh
upside technical power.--Jim 

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are steady to narrowly mixed
in early morning trading today. The bulls this week
have regained some technical momentum.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day, but has turned up. The 9-day is below the 18-
day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early
today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes
in at 1,090.00 and then at Tuesday's low of
1,082.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those
levels. Upside resistance for active traders today
is located at the overnight high of 1,100.00 and
then at 1,103.30. Buy stops are likely located just
above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,097.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at Tuesday's high
of 1,779.00 and then at 1,789.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at 1,760.00 and then at
Tuesday's low of 1,749.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,768.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,200 and then more stops just below
support at 10,150. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 10,250 and then at
Tuesday's high of 10,265. Shorter-term moving
averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,126

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are lower in early
trading today. Bulls are fading again and need to
show fresh power soon.

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-
term technical support lies at 117 20/32 and then
at 117 8/32. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance
lies at the overnight high of 118 11/32 and then at
118 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 118 7/32

MARCH U.S. T-Bonds

136 23/32--lifetime high
119 6/32--Previous Month's high
118 25/32--second pivot point resistance
118 21/32--100-day moving average
118 20/32--first pivot point resistance
118 14/32--previous day's high
118 14/32--9-day moving average
118 14/32--previous day's close
118 13/32--4-day moving average
118 8/32--pivot point
118 3/32--first pivot point support
117 29/32--previous day's low
117 23/32--second pivot point support
117 14/32--18-day moving average
114 22/32--previous month's low
110 3/32--lifetime low

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early
today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-
term technical resistance at the overnight high of
118.00.0 and then at this week's high of 118.09.5.
Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located
just below support at this week's low of 117.21.0
and then at 117.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 117.21.0

MARCH U.S. T-Notes

123 13/32--lifetime high
118 9/32--previous month's high
118 9/32--second pivot point resistance
118 4/32--first pivot point resistance
118 1/32--previous day's high
118 --previous day's close
117 30/32--4-day moving average
117 29/32--pivot point
117 27/32--9-day moving average
117 24/32--first pivot point support
117 21/32--previous day's low
117 17/32--second pivot point support
117 8/32--18-day moving average
117 7/32--100-day moving average
114 31/32--previous month's low
110 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The March U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in
early trading today. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 79.25 and then at Tuesday's
high of 79.58. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 78.83 and then at 78.50. Today's
key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
78.95. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

The March Euro is firmer in early electronic
trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely
located just below technical support at the
overnight low of 1.3945 and then at 1.3900.
Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is
seen at the overnight high of 1.4026 and then at
1.4100. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish
early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 1.3982. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 5.5

GOLD

Gold is near steady in early dealings today. Bulls
have gained some fresh upside technical momentum.
For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance
is seen at the overnight high of $1,126.40 and then
at 1,130.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below
support at the overnight low of $1,111.70 and then
at $1,100.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $1,120.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today.
Prices hit a fresh two-week high overnight. In
March crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at the overnight high of $78.04
and then just above resistance at $78.50. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at the
overnight low of $76.78 and then at $76.00. Today's
key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
$78.44. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were firmer in overnight trading, on more
short covering. Grain market bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Weekly high
closes in the grains this week would provide the
bulls with some fresh upside technical momentum to
also begin to suggest market lows are in place.

Tags:
stock-indexes, interest-rates, currencies, gold, grains, crude-oil

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