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Traders are likely to do some position-squaring today
Thursday, February 4--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today are weaker crude oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar
index.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Although I did not hear them, there were apparently
rumors floating around the markets on Wednesday
that the U.S. government has been stepping in to
buy the U.S. stock indexes in late-day trading
recently. I had a long-time reader of mine call me
and ask me about the validity of such a thing. My
response was that I'm virtually positive those
rumors are unfounded. It's in the best interest of
the U.S. government to ensure that all futures
markets operate efficiently and without
manipulation. There could be no worse effort to
ruin the price discovery of the futures markets,
and the markets themselves, than to have the U.S.
government actively trading futures markets with
taxpayer money. Now, with the foreign exchange
market, it's a different story, as history has
shown. The Federal Reserve, in coordination with
other central banks, has bought and sold the U.S.
dollar and other major currencies in the FOREX
market on several occasions the past 25 years, in
order to influence the value of the U.S. dollar.--
Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning
trading today. Traders are likely to do some
position-squaring today, ahead of Friday's key U.S.
jobs report.
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Today, shorter-term technical support
comes in at the overnight low of 1,087.50 and then
at 1,082.00. Sell stops likely reside just under
those levels. Upside resistance for active traders
today is located at the overnight high of 1,098.20
and then at 1,103.30. Buy stops are likely located
just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,097.00.
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day
and 18-day, but is turning up. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at the overnight
high of 1,792.00 and then at 1,800.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at 1,770.00
and then at Wednesday's low of 1,763.50. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,768.00
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,150 and then more stops just below
support at 10,100. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 10,225 and then at
Wednesday's high of 10,258. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 10,126
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are firmer in
early trading today, on short covering. Bulls are
fading again and need to show more power soon.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term technical support lies at the overnight low of
117 8/32 and then at 117 even. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Shorter-term
technical resistance lies at the overnight high of
117 25/32 and then at 118 even. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 118 7/32
MARCH U.S. T-Bonds
136 23/32--lifetime high
119 6/32--Previous Month's high
118 24/32--second pivot point resistance
118 20/32--100-day moving average
118 11/32--previous day's high
118 10/32--9-day moving average
118 7/32--4-day moving average
118 3/32--first pivot point resistance
117 22/32--pivot point
117 18/32--18-day moving average
117 14/32--previous day's close
117 9/32--previous day's low
117 1/32--first pivot point support
116 20/32--second pivot point support
114 22/32--previous month's low
110 3/32--lifetime low
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of
117.26.5 and then at 118.00.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely
located just below support at this week's low of
117.16.0 and then at 117.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 5.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 117.21.0
MARCH U.S. T-Notes
123 13/32--lifetime high
118 9/32--previous month's high
118 6/32--second pivot point resistance
118 --previous day's high
117 29/32--4-day moving average
117 29/32--first pivot point resistance
117 27/32--9-day moving average
117 22/32--pivot point
117 19/32--previous day's close
117 16/32--previous day's low
117 13/32--first pivot point support
117 11/32--18-day moving average
117 7/32--100-day moving average
117 6/32--second pivot point support
114 31/32--previous month's low
110 29/32--lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is firmer in early
trading today. Prices hit a fresh five-month high
overnight. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are neutral early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight
high of 79.89 and then at 80.00. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 79.51 and
then at 79.25. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 79.25. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 6.0
The March Euro is weaker in early electronic
trading. Prices hit a fresh seven-month low
overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely
located just below technical support at the
overnight low of 1.3825 and then at 1.3800.
Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is
seen at the overnight high of 1.3901 and then at
1.3950. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral
early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 1.3962. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is lower in early dealings today. Trading has
turned choppy this week. For April gold, shorter-
term technical resistance is seen at the overnight
high of $1,112.00 and then at 1,120.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops
likely reside just below support at $1,100.00 and
then at $1,095.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $1,100.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker early today, on profit
taking. In March crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at the overnight high
of $77.17 and then just above resistance at $77.50.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $76.10 and then at $75.50.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: $75.90. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5
GRAINS
Prices were firmer in overnight trading, on short
covering following losses on Wednesday. Grain
market bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Traders will closely examine
this morning's weekly USDA export sales data. The
key "outside markets" are in a bearish posture for
the grains today, as the U.S. dollar index is
firmer, crude oil prices are weaker and the U.S.
stock indexes are weaker.
stock-indexes, interest-rates, currencies, gold, grains, crude-oil
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