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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Friday
Friday, February 5--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a firmer U.S. dollar index and higher U.S. Treasury prices.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Thursday's volatile price action in some of the key futures markets, amid fresh world economic and sovereign debt worries, provided more strong evidence the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries are still the major markets traders seek out during times of heightened trader uncertainty. As gold, crude oil and stock market prices tumbled Thursday, the U.S. dollar index, T-Bonds and T-Notes posted solid price rallies. Gold bulls (or bugs) have continued to argue their metal is still a safe-haven asset. However, when the going gets real uncertain in the markets, the true safe-haven assets stand out and see their prices rally, while gold sells off sharply. Thursday's price action in gold should be a fundamental warning shot across the bow for the gold bugs.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are mixed in early morning trading today, following strong selling pressure Thursday that did produce some near-term chart damage. Traders are awaiting this morning's key U.S. jobs report.S&P 500 futures: Prices hit a fresh three-month low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,050.60 and then at 1,040.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,064.80 and then at 1,075.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,070.00.
Nasdaq index futures: Prices hit a fresh three-month low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 1,740.25 and then at 1,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1,728.75 and then at 1,720.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,766.00
Dow futures: Prices hit a fresh three-month low overnight. Sell stops likely reside just below support at 9,900 and then more stops just below support at 9,850. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 9,960 and then at 10,000. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,076
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are firmer in early trading today, on short covering and fresh safe-haven buying. Bulls have regained upside technical momentum.March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices hit a fresh two-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 119 even and then at the overnight low of 118 17/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 119 12/32 and then at 120 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 119 24/32
MARCH U.S. T-Bonds
136 23/32--lifetime high
120 5/32--second pivot point resistance
119 18/32--first pivot point resistance
119 6/32--Previous Month's high
119 --previous day's high
118 31/32--previous day's close
118 20/32--100-day moving average
118 13/32--pivot point
118 10/32--9-day moving average
118 8/32--4-day moving average
117 26/32--first pivot point support
117 24/32--18-day moving average
117 8/32--previous day's low
116 21/32--second pivot point support
114 22/32--previous month's low
110 3/32--lifetime low
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices hit a fresh two-month high overnight. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 118.22.5 and then at 119.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 118.05.5 and then at 118.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118.11.0
MARCH U.S. T-Notes
123 13/32--lifetime high
118 31/32--second pivot point resistance
118 21/32--first pivot point resistance
118 12/32--previous day's high
118 12/32--previous day's close
118 9/32--previous month's high
118 3/32--pivot point
117 31/32--4-day moving average
117 28/32--9-day moving average
117 25/32--first pivot point support
117 16/32--previous day's low
117 15/32--18-day moving average
117 7/32--100-day moving average
117 7/32--second pivot point support
114 31/32--previous month's low
110 29/32--lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is firmer again in early trading today. Prices hit a fresh 6.5-month high overnight. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.58 and then at 81.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.23 and then at 80.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 81.14. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The March Euro is weaker in early electronic trading. Prices hit a fresh 8.5-month low overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3647 and then at 1.3600. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3746 and then at 1.3800. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3758. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is lower in early dealings today. Prices hit a fresh three-month low overnight. Bears have gained solid downside technical momentum. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $1,060.00 and then at the overnight high of 1,069.40. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $1,049.60 and then at $1,040.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,033.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker early today, on follow-through pressure from strong losses Thursday. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $73.00 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of $73.64. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the January low of $72.43 and then at $72.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $72.01. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed in overnight trading. Grain market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The key "outside markets" are in a mostly bearish posture for the grains today, as the U.S. dollar index is firmer, crude oil prices are weaker and the U.S. stock indexes are mixed. If the outside markets trade in volatile fashion following the U.S. jobs report, the grains will likely react.
Tags:stock-indexes, interest-rates, currencies, gold, grains, crude-oil
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