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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Monday
Monday, February 8--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today are higher gold prices and weaker U.S. stock index
futures prices.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Those of you who've followed me for a while know
that I'm a conservative trader/analyst. My mission
is to steer you away from trouble as much as it is
to steer you toward sound trading ideas. When
someone in this industry tells me they "know" a
market is going to do something, I "know" they must
be inexperienced or at least a border-line
huckster. I think the best any honest industry
professional can do is, based upon their knowledge
and experience, provide their customers their
biases or strong biases about what a market might
do at some point in time. Here are my biases at
present: Gold, silver and copper have put in major
market tops. U.S. Stock indexes will grind in a
sideways pattern in the coming weeks. The U.S.
dollar will trend sideways to higher in the coming
weeks. Grains have a bit more on the downside
before they become buying opportunities. Crude oil
prices will chop in a sideways trading range in the
coming weeks.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning
trading today, on some follow-through selling
pressure from strong losses posted late last week.
Near-term chart damage has been inflicted in the
stock indexes, and near-term price downtrends are
now in place
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Today, shorter-term technical support
comes in at 1,050.00 and then at last week's low of
1,041.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those
levels. Upside resistance for active traders today
is located at the overnight high of 1,066.70 and
then at 1,075.00. Buy stops are likely located just
above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,064.00.
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the overnight high of
1,753.25 and then at 1,765.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at 1,730.00 and then at
1,720.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,740.00
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 9,900 and then more stops just below
support at 9,850. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 9,950 and then at
Friday's high of 9,985. Shorter-term moving
averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 9,975
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are weaker in
early trading today, on a pullback from solid gains
posted late last week. The bulls did gain some
fresh technical momentum late last week, but need
to show more power very soon to keep it.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term technical support lies at 119 even and then at
the overnight low of 118 25/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Shorter-term
technical resistance lies at the overnight high of
119 9/32 and then at last week's high of 119 18/32.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 119 24/32
MARCH U.S. T-Bonds
136 23/32--lifetime high
120 11/32--second pivot point resistance
119 30/32--first pivot point resistance
119 18/32--previous day's high
119 16/32--previous day's close
119 6/32--Previous Month's high
119 4/32--pivot point
118 23/32--first pivot point support
118 20/32--100-day moving average
118 17/32--4-day moving average
118 14/32--9-day moving average
118 11/32--previous day's low
117 31/32--18-day moving average
117 29/32--second pivot point support
114 22/32--previous month's low
110 3/32--lifetime low
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of
118.24.5 and then at last week's high of 118.30.5.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell
stop orders are likely located just below support
at the overnight low of 118.14.0 and then at
118.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 118.11.0
MARCH U.S. T-Notes
123 13/32--lifetime high
119 16/32--second pivot point resistance
119 5/32--first pivot point resistance
118 30/32--previous day's high
118 27/32--previous day's close
118 20/32--pivot point
118 9/32--first pivot point support
118 9/32--previous month's high
118 6/32--4-day moving average
118 2/32--previous day's low
118 --9-day moving average
117 24/32--second pivot point support
117 20/32--18-day moving average
117 8/32--100-day moving average
114 31/32--previous month's low
110 29/32--lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is near steady in early
trading today. Bulls still have near-term upside
technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are neutral early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at the
overnight high of 80.66 and then at last week's
high of 80.82. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 80.28 and then at 80.00. Today's
key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level:
81.14. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The March Euro is slightly higher in early
electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are
likely located just below technical support at the
overnight low of 1.3621 and then at last week's low
of 1.3584. Shorter-term technical resistance for
the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3714
and then at 1.3750. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro
are neutral early today. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3758.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
GOLD
Gold is higher in early dealings today, on a short-
covering bounce from heavy losses suffered late
last week. For April gold, shorter-term technical
resistance is seen at the overnight high of
$1,074.30 and then at 1,080.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely
reside just below support at the overnight low of
$1,065.40 and then at $1,060.00. Today's key near-
term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,075.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are near steady early today,
following strong losses late last week that
produced serious near-term chart damage. In March
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $72.00 and then just above resistance
at the overnight high of $72.39. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $71.00 and
then at $70.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: $72.74. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading, on a
short-covering bounce from recent selling pressure.
Grain market bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage as the "February Break"
phenomenon plays out. The key "outside markets" are
in a neutral posture for the grains today, as the
U.S. dollar index is near steady, as is crude oil
prices, while U.S. stock indexes are weaker. Would-
be bottom pickers and bargain hunters in the grains
should still beware.
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