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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Tuesday
Tuesday, February 9--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading
today are higher U.S. stock index futures prices and a
weaker U.S. dollar index.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
This week's rebound in most of the commodity
futures markets is so far just a corrective bounce
in existing downtrends on the daily charts. One
early clue that a market bottom is close at hand or
in place in a commodity market would be if that
market posted a weekly high close, or very close to
it.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are higher in early morning
trading today, on short-covering bounces following
recent strong selling pressure. Near-term chart
damage has been inflicted in the stock indexes, and
near-term price downtrends are in place
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Today, shorter-term technical support
comes in at the overnight low of 1,054.50 and then
at last week's low of 1,041.00. Sell stops likely
reside just under those levels. Upside resistance
for active traders today is located at the
overnight high of 1,066.90 and then at 1,075.00.
Buy stops are likely located just above those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,064.00.
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at Monday's high of 1,755.00
and then at 1,765.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at 1,740.00 and then at Monday's
low of 1,731.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1,740.00
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 9,900 and then more stops just below
support at Monday's low of 9,870. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at Monday's
high of 9,985 and then at 10,000. Shorter-term
moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-
day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day
moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 9,975
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are slightly lower
in early trading today, on a pullback from solid
gains posted late last week. The bulls did gain
some fresh technical momentum late last week, but
need to show more power very soon to keep it.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-
term technical support lies at the overnight low of
118 20/32 and then at 118 10/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Shorter-term
technical resistance lies at 119 even and then at
the overnight high of 119 11/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 118 21/32
MARCH U.S. T-Bonds
136 23/32--lifetime high
119 18/32--second pivot point resistance
119 10/32--first pivot point resistance
119 9/32--previous day's high
119 6/32--Previous Month's high
119 3/32--previous day's close
119 2/32--pivot point
118 26/32--first pivot point support
118 25/32--previous day's low
118 22/32--4-day moving average
118 20/32--100-day moving average
118 18/32--second pivot point support
118 16/32--9-day moving average
118 3/32--18-day moving average
114 22/32--previous month's low
110 3/32--lifetime low
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy
stops likely reside just above shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of
118.23.5 and then at last week's high of 118.30.5.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell
stop orders are likely located just below support
at the overnight low of 118.11.0 and then at
118.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 118.11.0
MARCH U.S. T-Notes
123 13/32--lifetime high
118 29/32--second pivot point resistance
118 24/32--previous day's high
118 23/32--first pivot point resistance
118 19/32--pivot point
118 18/32--previous day's close
118 14/32--previous day's low
118 13/32--first pivot point support
118 10/32--4-day moving average
118 9/32--previous month's high
118 9/32--second pivot point support
118 2/32--9-day moving average
117 23/32--18-day moving average
117 9/32--100-day moving average
114 31/32--previous month's low
110 29/32--lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is weaker in early
trading today, on profit-taking pressure from
recent gains. No chart damage has occurred this
week. Bulls still have the near-term technical
advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight
high of 80.53 and then at Monday's high of 80.66.
Shorter-term support is seen at 80.00 and then at
79.76. Today's key near-term Fibonacci
support/resistance level: 80.08. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.0
The March Euro is higher in early electronic
trading, on short covering. Euro finds sell stop
orders are likely located just below technical
support at 1.3700 and then at the overnight low of
1.3648. Shorter-term technical resistance for the
Euro is seen at 1.3800 and then at 1.3850. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow
stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today.
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance
level: 1.3758. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
6.0
GOLD
Gold is higher in early dealings today, on more
short-covering from recent heavy losses. For April
gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
$1,085.00 and then at 1,090.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely
reside just below support at $1,070.00 and then at
the overnight low of $1,062.10. Today's key near-
term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,075.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today, on short
covering following strong losses late last week
that produced serious near-term chart damage. In
March crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $73.00 and then just above
resistance at $73.50. Look for sell stops just
below technical support at $72.00 and then at the
overnight low of $71.32. Today's key near-term
Fibonacci support/resistance level: $72.74.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading, on more
short covering from recent selling pressure. Grain
market bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The key "outside markets" are
in a bullish posture for the grains today, as the
U.S. dollar index is weaker, while crude oil prices
and U.S. stock indexes are higher. The U.S.
government is closed today, but this morning's USDA
supply and demand report is still scheduled for
release. This report is not expected to contain
much market-moving data.
stock-indexes, interest-rates, currencies, gold, grains, crude-oil
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