Wednesday, February 10--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web
Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are firmer U.S. stock index futures prices and a steady U.S. dollar index.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Many markets are seeing decent counter-trend price corrections this week, but are still in an overall trending mode on the daily charts. For the market or markets that you follow, don't be fooled by this week's price action. Examine the daily chart to determine the dominant near-term trend of the market. Remember, too, that counter-trend corrections are many times a good trade entry opportunity, to continue to go with the overall existing near-term price trend.--Jim 

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today, on more short-covering following recent selling pressure. The indexes are still in three-week-old downtrends on the daily bar chart.S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,062.60 and then at Tuesday's low of 1,054.50. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Tuesday's high of 1,076.50 and then at 1,085.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,064.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 1,762.25 and then at Tuesday's high of 1,768.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1,747.50 and then at this week's low of 1,731.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,779.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,000 and then more stops just below support at Tuesday's low of 9,940. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 10,103 and then at 10,150. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 9,975

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are slightly lower again in early trading today. The bulls are fading again and need to show fresh power very soon.

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 118 2/32 and then at 117 24/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 118 15/32 and then at 119 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118 21/32

MARCH U.S. T-Bonds

136 23/32--lifetime high
119 24/32--second pivot point resistance
119 11/32--previous day's high
119 6/32--Previous Month's high
118 31/32--first pivot point resistance
118 28/32--4-day moving average
118 20/32--100-day moving average
118 19/32--pivot point
118 15/32--9-day moving average
118 7/32--previous day's close
118 7/32--18-day moving average
118 6/32--previous day's low
117 26/32--first pivot point support
117 14/32--second pivot point support
114 22/32--previous month's low
110 3/32--lifetime low

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 118.11.0 and then at 118.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 118.03.5 and then at 118.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118.11.0

MARCH U.S. T-Notes

123 13/32--lifetime high
118 30/32--second pivot point resistance
118 23/32--previous day's high
118 18/32--first pivot point resistance
118 14/32--4-day moving average
118 11/32--pivot point
118 9/32--previous month's high
118 6/32--previous day's close
118 4/32--previous day's low
118 4/32--9-day moving average
117 31/32--first pivot point support
117 26/32--18-day moving average
117 24/32--second pivot point support
117 9/32--100-day moving average
114 31/32--previous month's low
110 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The March U.S. dollar index is near steady in early trading today. No chart damage has occurred this week. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.12 and then at Tuesday's high of 80.53. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.77 and then at 79.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.08. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

The March Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3733 and then at 1.3700. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3812 and then at Tuesday's high of 1.3840. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3758. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

GOLD

Gold is firmer in early dealings today, on more short-covering. Prices are still in a nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday's high of $1,083.80 and then at 1,090.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $1,074.00 and then at $1,070.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,075.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Prices are still in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $74.30 and then just above resistance at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $73.18 and then at $72.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $72.74. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. Grain market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage as the markets are still in downtrends on the daily charts. The seasonal "February Break" phenomenon is playing out in the grains. Would-be bottom pickers in the grains still need to beware.