JimWyckoff's Commentaries

Feb 19 2010

Energy Market Analysis

March crude oil closed higher on Thursday and above the 62% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 78.75 as it extended the rally off this month's low. Today's rally was supported by reported outages at Buzzard oil field. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 80.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 74.72 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 79.11. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 80.72. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.83. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 74.72.

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March heating oil closed higher on Thursday as it extended this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the 62% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 207.78 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 195.16 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 205.25. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 205.74. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 195.89. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 195.16.

March unleaded gas closed higher on Thursday and above the early-February high crossing at 206.62. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the 75% retracement level of the January-February declinemcrossing at 211.21 is the next downside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 195.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 207.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 211.21. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 196.22. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 195.19.

March Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it extended this month's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.680 or below 5.060 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 5.556. Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 5.680. First support is today's low crossing at 5.138. Second support is January's low crossing at 5.060.



Tags: crude-oil | natural-gas | futures
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