Thursday, February 25--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are lower crude oil, gold and stock index futures prices.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY

Traders, have you checked out the mini contracts that are available for most futures markets? The e-mini stock index futures are already very popular among traders. However, grains, metals, crude oil and other futures markets also have mini contracts, which are generally 10% to 20% the size of the regular-sized futures contracts. The mini futures contracts are a great way for a smaller-capitalized trader to participate in futures trading. For more information, contact your broker or check out the web sites at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Inter-Continental Exchange or the New York Mercantile Exchange.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading today. Two-week-old uptrends are still in place on the daily bar charts, but now appear to be rolling over.S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but has turned down. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at this week's low of 1,090.40 and then at 1,080.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,103.50 and then at this week's high of 1,112.70. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,107.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but has turned down. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 1,812.75 and then at Wednesday's high of 1,820.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Wednesday's low of 1,797.00 and then at this week's low of 1,785.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,785.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday's low of 10,285 and then more stops just below support at 10,250. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,350 and then at Wednesday's high of 10,375. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, but has turned down. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,187

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are firmer in early trading today. Bulls this week have regained fresh upside near-term technical momentum, but need to show more follow-through strength soon to keep it.March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117 21/32 and then at 117 8/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Wednesday's high of 118 9/32 and then at 118 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118 7/32

MARCH U.S. T-Bonds

136 23/32--lifetime high
119 6/32--Previous Month's high
118 21/32--second pivot point resistance
118 13/32--100-day moving average
118 9/32--previous day's high
118 8/32--first pivot point resistance
117 29/32--pivot point
117 28/32--previous day's close
117 26/32--18-day moving average
117 17/32--previous day's low
117 16/32--first pivot point support
117 7/32--4-day moving average
117 5/32--9-day moving average
117 5/32--second pivot point support
114 22/32--previous month's low
110 3/32--lifetime low

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 118.14.0 and then at 118.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 118.00.5 and then at 117.24.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118.06.0

MARCH U.S. T-Notes

123 13/32--lifetime high
118 19/32--second pivot point resistance
118 12/32--first pivot point resistance
118 11/32--previous day's high
118 9/32--previous month's high
118 4/32--previous day's close
118 3/32--pivot point
117 30/32--18-day moving average
117 28/32--first pivot point support
117 27/32--previous day's low
117 23/32--9-day moving average
117 20/32--4-day moving average
117 19/32--second pivot point support
117 14/32--100-day moving average
114 31/32--previous month's low
110 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The March U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices hover near eight-month highs. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.18 and then at last week's high of 81.43. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.86 and then at 80.50. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.76. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

The March Euro is weaker in early electronic trading. Prices are still hovering near the 10-month lows. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at at last week's low of 1.3442 and then at 1.3400. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3547 and then at 1.3600. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3665. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

GOLD

Gold is lower again in early dealings today. Bulls are fading. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $1,100.00 and then at Wednesday's high of 1,108.80. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $1,088.50 and then at $1,080.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,098.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today, on profit-taking from recent solid gains. Prices are still in a two-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. In April crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $80.00 and then just above resistance at this week's high of $80.78. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $79.00 and then at this week's low of $78.22. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $78.76. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Prices were weaker in overnight trading. The key outside markets are in a bearish posture for the grains today, as crude oil, stock index and gold prices are lower, while the U.S. dollar index is firmer. Traders will scrutinize this morning's weekly USDA export sales report. Trading the rest of this week will be extra important for the grain futures markets. If prices on Friday close at or near the weekly highs, that would suggest recent fledgling uptrends will continue. However, if grain prices close at or near the weekly lows on Friday, then those uptrends would likely be negated and choppy and sideways trading would likely then follow.