Friday, February 26--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a weaker U.S. dollar index.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

All markets vacillate between periods of higher volatility and periods of lower volatility. When the price volatility collapses, there is a method to determine when the next bigger price move is coming. I wrote a feature story on this matter a while back. If you'd like to read it, send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I'll attach it and email it back to you. Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are near steady in early morning trading today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,100.00 and then at 1,090.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,107.10 and then at this week's high of 1,112.70. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,107.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 1,821.00 and then at this week's high of 1,832.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 1,800.00 and then at 1,785.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,785.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,300 and then more stops just below support at 10,285. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,350 and then at 10,375. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, but has turned down. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,187

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are near steady in early trading today. Bulls this week have regained some fresh upside near-term technical momentum, but need to show more follow-through strength soon to keep it.March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 118 9/32 and then at 118 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 118 19/32 and then at 119 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118 7/32

MARCH U.S. T-Bonds

136 23/32--lifetime high
119 6/32--Previous Month's high
119 5/32--second pivot point resistance
118 26/32--first pivot point resistance
118 19/32--previous day's high
118 14/32--previous day's close
118 12/32--100-day moving average
118 7/32--pivot point
117 28/32--first pivot point support
117 25/32--18-day moving average
117 21/32--previous day's low
117 19/32--4-day moving average
117 9/32--second pivot point support
117 9/32--9-day moving average
114 22/32--previous month's low
110 3/32--lifetime low

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at this week's high of 118.21.5 and then at the February high of 118.30.5. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 118.15.5 and then at 118.08.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118.06.0

MARCH U.S. T-Notes

123 13/32--lifetime high
119 2/32--second pivot point resistance
118 26/32--first pivot point resistance
118 21/32--previous day's high
118 18/32--previous day's close
118 13/32--pivot point
118 9/32--previous month's high
118 5/32--first pivot point support
118 --previous day's low
117 31/32--18-day moving average
117 31/32--4-day moving average
117 26/32--9-day moving average
117 24/32--second pivot point support
117 14/32--100-day moving average
114 31/32--previous month's low
110 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The March U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices hover near eight-month highs. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.83 and then at 81.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.46 and then at this week's low of 80.14. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.76. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

The March Euro is firmer in early electronic trading, on short covering. Prices are still hovering near the 10-month lows. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3530 and then at 1.3500. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3628 and then at 1.3700. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3665. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

GOLD

Gold is near steady in early dealings today. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,114.50 and then at 1,120.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $1,104.60 and then at $1,100.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,098.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Prices are still in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. In April crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $78.67 and then just above resistance at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $77.50 and then at $77.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $78.76. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were firmer in overnight trading, on a corrective bounce from selling pressure Thursday. The key outside markets are in a bullish posture for the grains today, as crude oil, stock index and gold prices are steady to firmer, while the U.S. dollar index is weaker. Corn bulls have gained good upside momentum this week. Soybean bulls have faded and need to show good power today. Wheat has seen choppy trading this week, with the bears still in overall technical control.