Monday, March 1--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a higher U.S. dollar index.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

U.S. Treasury futures markets had a very good week last week, including posting technically bullish weekly high closes last Friday. While trading has been overall choppy for the past six weeks, I would not want to be short T-Bonds and T-Notes futures markets in the present uncertain economic and financial environment.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage as three-week-old uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,100.00 and then at Friday's low of 1,096.50. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the February high of 1,112.70 and then at 1,120.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,107.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the February high of 1,832.50 and then at 1,840.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 1,815.00 and then at 1,800.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,785.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,300 and then more stops just below support at Friday's low of 10,261. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,375 and then at 10,400. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,187

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are lower in early trading today, on a corrective pullback from recent good gains. Bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum after posting bullish weekly high closes on Friday.June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117 5/32 and then at 117 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 117 15/32 and then at Friday's high of 117 26/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 16/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
118 14/32--second pivot point resistance
118 2/32--Previous Month's high
118 2/32--first pivot point resistance
117 26/32--previous day's high
117 22/32--previous day's close
117 14/32--pivot point
117 2/32--first pivot point support
116 26/32--100-day moving average
116 26/32--previous day's low
116 26/32--4-day moving average
116 14/32--second pivot point support
116 9/32--18-day moving average
115 31/32--9-day moving average
114 15/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 117.10.5 and then at Friday's high of 117.17.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 117.05.0 and then at 117.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.24.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

120 9/32--lifetime high
117 26/32--second pivot point resistance
117 21/32--first pivot point resistance
117 17/32--previous day's high
117 16/32--previous month's high
117 15/32--previous day's close
117 11/32--pivot point
117 6/32--first pivot point support
117 2/32--previous day's low
117 --4-day moving average
116 28/32--second pivot point support
116 18/32--18-day moving average
116 15/32--9-day moving average
116 2/32--100-day moving average
113 18/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early trading today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices hover near eight-month highs. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.50 and then at the February high of 81.70. Shorter-term support is seen at 81.00 and then at today's low of 80.68. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.76. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

The June Euro is lower in early electronic trading. Prices are still hovering near the 10-month lows. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3500 and then at the February low of 1.3441. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3600 and then at the overnight high of 1.3651. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3665. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are near weaker in early dealings today. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,123.90 and then at the February high of 1,131.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $1,112.10 and then at Friday's low of $1,104.60. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,098.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Prices are still in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. In April crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $80.62 and then just above resistance at the February high of $80.78. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $79.00 and then at $78.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $78.76. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were mixed in overnight trading. The key outside markets are in a mixed posture for the grains today, as crude oil is near steady, stock indexes are firmer and the U.S. dollar index is higher. Corn bulls have gained good upside momentum recently, including more by producing a bullish weekly and monthly high close last Friday. Soybean bulls have faded and need to show power soon. Wheat has seen choppy trading recently, but are also working on a choppy uptrend on the daily chart.