Tuesday, March 2--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is firmer U.S. stock index futures.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

After a significant downside correction, the U.S. stock indexes are once again trending higher and are poised to challenge the January highs. Those January highs in the stock indexes do pose strong overhead resistance. If the indexes rally a bit more and then back down again, the specter of bearish double-top reversal patterns arises on the daily bar charts. If the indexes push solidly above the January highs, then the bulls would be off to the races again.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today and hit fresh six-week highs overnight. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage as three-week-old uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,112.80 and then at Monday's low of 1,104.40. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,122.50 and then at 1,130.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,107.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 1,854.50 and then at 1,860.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1,843.00 and then at 1,830.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,804.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,400 and then more stops just below support at 10,375. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,450 and then at 10,475. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,338

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are lower in early trading today, on a corrective pullback from recent good gains. Bulls have faded a bit early this week and need to show fresh power soon to continue the fledgling uptrends on the daily bar charts.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day oving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117 1/32 and then at 116 26/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 117 15/32 and then at last week's high of 117 26/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 16/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
118 2/32--Previous Month's high
118 --second pivot point resistance
117 23/32--first pivot point resistance
117 22/32--previous day's high
117 15/32--previous day's close
117 14/32--pivot point
117 5/32--first pivot point support
117 4/32--previous day's low
117 3/32--4-day moving average
116 28/32--second pivot point support
116 27/32--100-day moving average
116 12/32--18-day moving average
116 3/32--9-day moving average
114 15/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 117.12.5 and then at last week's high of 117.17.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 117.00.0 and then at 116.20.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.24.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

120 9/32--lifetime high
117 22/32--second pivot point resistance
117 17/32--first pivot point resistance
117 16/32--previous day's high
117 16/32--previous month's high
117 12/32--previous day's close
117 11/32--pivot point
117 6/32--first pivot point support
117 5/32--previous day's low
117 5/32--4-day moving average
117 --second pivot point support
116 20/32--18-day moving average
116 17/32--9-day moving average
116 2/32--100-day moving average
113 18/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices hover near eight-month highs. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 81.30 and then at the overnight high of 81.60. Shorter-term support is seen at 81.00 and then at this week's low of 80.68. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.76. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

The June Euro is weaker in early electronic trading. Prices hit a fresh 10-month low overnight. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3500 and then at the overnight low of 1.3433. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3600 and then at Monday's high of 1.3651. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3665. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

GOLD

Comex gold futures are firmer in early dealings today. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $1,125.00 and then at the February high of 1,131.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $1,115.00 and then at this week's low of $1,112.10. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,120.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Prices are still in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. In April crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $80.00 and then just above resistance at the February high of $80.78. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $79.00 and then at the overnight low of $78.26. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $78.76. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. The key outside markets are in a mixed posture for the grains again today, as crude oil is firmer, stock indexes are firmer and the U.S. dollar index is also firmer. Corn bulls still have some upside momentum, but need to show fresh power soon to keep it. Soybean bulls have also faded and need to show fresh power soon. Wheat is the weakest market of the grains and bears have the technical advantage amid bearish fundamentals in that market.