Wednesday, March 3--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are firmer crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar index.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

With the recent news from Europe, regarding the European Union's financial and economic woes, I would not want to be short U.S. T-Bonds or T-Notes futures at present. I suspect the economic news from Europe will not get better any time soon, and that "another shoe may fall" in the not-too-distant future to spook the markets again, and to prompt a flight to quality into U.S. Treasuries.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are near steady in early morning trading today. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage as three-week-old uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Tuesday's low of 1,112.80 and then at this week's low of 1,104.40. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Tuesday's high of 1,123.00 and then at 1,130.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,107.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Tuesday's high of 1,863.00 and then at 1,875.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Tuesday's low of 1,843.00 and then at 1,830.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,827.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday's low of 10,375 and then more stops just below support at this week's low of 10,345. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 10,441 and then at 10,475. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,338

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are steady to weaker in early trading today. Bulls have faded this week and need to show fresh power soon to continue the fledgling uptrends on the daily bar charts.June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 117 even and then at this week's low of 116 28/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Tuesday's high of 117 16/32 and then at last week's high of 117 26/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 22/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
118 2/32--Previous Month's high
117 28/32--second pivot point resistance
117 21/32--first pivot point resistance
117 16/32--previous day's high
117 13/32--previous day's close
117 12/32--4-day moving average
117 8/32--pivot point
117 1/32--first pivot point support
116 28/32--previous day's low
116 24/32--100-day moving average
116 20/32--second pivot point support
116 12/32--18-day moving average
116 11/32--9-day moving average
114 15/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 117.16.0 and then at 117.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 117.00.0 and then at 116.20.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.24.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

120 9/32--lifetime high
117 24/32--second pivot point resistance
117 19/32--first pivot point resistance
117 16/32--previous month's high
117 15/32--previous day's high
117 14/32--previous day's close
117 12/32--4-day moving average
117 10/32--pivot point
117 5/32--first pivot point support
117 1/32--previous day's low
116 28/32--second pivot point support
116 22/32--18-day moving average
116 22/32--9-day moving average
116 2/32--100-day moving average
113 18/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Trading has been choppy and sideways for two weeks. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.89 and then at 81.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 80.50 and then at 80.25. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.76. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

The June Euro is firmer in early electronic trading, on short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3590 and then at 1.3550. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3668 and then at 1.3700. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish arly today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3665. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

GOLD

Comex gold futures are firmer in early dealings today, and hit a fresh six-week high overnight. The bulls have solid upside near-term technical momentum. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,144.40 and then at 1,150.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $1,132.80 and then at $1,125.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,137.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Prices are still in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. In April crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at Tuesday's high of $80.95 and then just above resistance at $82.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $79.00 and then at the overnight low of $78.26. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $79.16. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were firmer in overnight trading, on some short covering from recent selling pressure. The key outside markets are in a bullish posture for the grains again today, as crude oil is firmer, stock indexes are steady to firmer and the U.S. dollar index is weaker. Corn bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep the uptrend in place. Soybean bulls have also faded and need to show fresh power soon. Wheat is the weakest market of the grains and bears have the technical advantage amid bearish fundamentals in that market.