Thursday, March 4--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

There is no standout market feature in quieter overnight/early morning trading today.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Crude oil has pushed above $80.00 a barrel this week. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is solid technical resistance at the January high of $84.96, basis April futures. Recent history suggests crude will challenge the $85.00 area and then back off and trade sideways to lower, down to the $70.00-a-barrel area.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are near steady in early morning trading today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage as four-week-old uptrends are still in place on the daily bar charts.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,113.50 and then at this week's low of 1,104.40. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at this week's high of 1,124.90 and then at 1,135.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,107.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at this week's high of 1,863.00 and then at 1,875.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 1,843.00 and then at 1,830.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,827.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday's low of 10,365 and then more stops just below support at this week's low of 10,345. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 10,455 and then at 10,500. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,338

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are firmer in early trading today. Bulls have faded this week and need to show more power soon to continue the fledgling uptrends on the daily bar charts.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117 5/32 and then at 117 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 117 16/32 and then at the overnight high of 117 20/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 22/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32--lifetime high
118 2/32--Previous Month's high
117 29/32--second pivot point resistance
117 19/32--first pivot point resistance
117 16/32--previous day's high
117 14/32--4-day moving average
117 8/32--previous day's close
117 5/32--pivot point
116 27/32--first pivot point support
116 25/32--100-day moving average
116 24/32--previous day's low
116 20/32--9-day moving average
116 14/32--18-day moving average
116 13/32--second pivot point support
114 15/32--previous month's low
109 15/32--lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 117.22.5 and then at 118.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 117.11.0 and then at 117.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.24.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

120 9/32--lifetime high
117 22/32--second pivot point resistance
117 18/32--first pivot point resistance
117 16/32--previous month's high
117 15/32--previous day's high
117 14/32--4-day moving average
117 13/32--previous day's close
117 10/32--pivot point
117 6/32--first pivot point support
117 3/32--previous day's low
116 30/32--second pivot point support
116 27/32--9-day moving average
116 23/32--18-day moving average
116 2/32--100-day moving average
113 18/32--previous month's low
109 29/32--lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Bulls have faded a bit and need to show fresh power soon to keep the uptrend on the daily chart in place. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.59 and then at 80.89. Shorter-term support is seen at this week's low of 80.13 and then at 80.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.76. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

The June Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3631 and then at 1.3600. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3710 and then at this week's high of 1.3734. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3665. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

GOLD

Comex gold futures are lower in early dealings today, on a corrective profit-taking pullback from solid gains seen recently. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,142.30 and then at this week's high of 1,145.80. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $1,132.50 and then at $1,125.00. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,137.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady today. Prices are still in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. In April crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at Wednesday's high of $81.23 and then just above resistance at $82.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $79.44. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $79.16. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading. Traders will closely scrutinize this morning's weekly USDA export sales report. Corn bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep the uptrend in place. Soybean bulls have also faded and need to show fresh power soon. Wheat is the weakest market of the grains and bears have the technical advantage amid bearish fundamentals in that market.